If it was not for cheap gas.....

[Woodsy]

then what was the war for dammit!!!!!
this is gonna crimp my spring ski travel schedule......
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Regular gasoline pump prices in the United States may average as high as $2.50 by Memorial Day, shattering the records as futures prices climb to new peaks, analysts said on Friday.


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U.S. retail gasoline is already running above $2.15 a gallon, well beyond last spring's peak of $2.05, according to government and industry surveys.

"Surging NYMEX futures are certainly an upward pressure on prices at the pump, so I would certainly expect to see retail prices move up sharply over the next few weeks," said Tim Evans, analyst with IFR Energy Services.

Gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) hit a record Friday over $1.70 a gallon, keeping stride with a spike in the cost of crude as soaring global energy demand threatens to outpace supply.

While it is difficult to predict pump prices based on futures traded on the NYMEX, the increase will probably get passed on to motorists, with prices running up to $2.50 a gallon in the next month, said Ed Silliere, analyst with Energy Merchant Intermarket Futures.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses spot -- physical -- prices to predict retail prices, and the NYMEX is the benchmark off which spot prices are calculated, said Mike Burdette, analyst with the EIA.

U.S. average retail prices generally are 60 cents to 65 cents higher than spot prices, which on Friday were running about $1.70 a gallon in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Friday's spot prices, Burdette said, would predict average retail gasoline prices of $2.30 to $2.35 per gallon, but only if the spot price stays put for at least several days.

CALIFORNIA TAKES THE BRUNT

Pump prices in California on Friday were 30 cents higher than the national average, according to the AAA's survey, and further spikes could send prices close to $3.

California tends to have higher prices than other states because of more stringent environmental rules governing fuel that out-of-state refiners have trouble meeting.

While soaring prices have yet to show an impact on fuel demand in the United States, that could be coming soon, IFR's Evans said. He pointed to the third quarter of 2004, when high gasoline prices helped lower year-on-year demand growth to 0.4 percent, less than the rate of population growth.

Current gasoline demand is running about 2 percent higher than last year, according to government figures.

EARLY SPIKE?

Evans said that if 2005 plays out like last year, the record high prices could hit before peak summer driving demand kicks in, and ease by July.

"Overall, I think that means we could see retail gasoline prices rise to the $2.30-2.40 level on a nationwide average, but that they would fall back to less than $2.00 by the 4th of July," Evans said.

The NYMEX front-month, for deliveries to the New York Harbor in May, settled on Friday at $1.7310 a gallon, and hit a record high of $1.7360 a gallon, with June delivery futures striking a record $1.75.
*******************************************

at least work is paying $.40 a mile to go to Aspen tomorrow.

[Telenater]

Yeah, these prices are going to seriously crimp my spring skiing in the Eastern Sierra and any road trips for the summer. It's getting light enough early enough that maybe I'll start doing the 30 mile commute to work by bike.....

[KQ]

I had the pleasure of paying $41 for 16 gallons of gas yesterday and I didn't even get a reach around.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

It's getting light enough early enough that maybe I'll start doing the 30 mile commute to work by bike.....

Do it....Doooooooo it.

Daylight savings this weekend.....Weekly Salmon Falls rides again? And the Wednesday night mountain bike race series starts again mid-April at Prairie City.


...back to your regularly scheduled gas discussion.

[PNWbrit]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4399537.stm

Crude oil prices hit record levels on Friday, with leading investment bank Goldman Sachs warning the cost of a barrel could eventually top $100.
Goldman Sachs said that the oil market may be in the early stages of a "super spike", which could push prices as high as $105 a barrel.

It said strong global demand, allied to potential instability in oil producing countries, could inflate prices.

US light crude rose as much as $2.40 to $57.70 a barrel in New York.

By the close, the price had slipped back to $57.27 a barrel.

The previous high was $57.60, set on 17 March.

In London, the benchmark contract of Brent crude climbed $2.22, or 4.1%, to $56.51 a barrel.

"There are real concerns about product availability, that's what is underpinning the strength of the market at the moment," said Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

Consumption effect

The last time prices were at these levels, economists highlighted the potential dangers to global economic growth and inflation.

Oil production cartel Opec was prompted to lift production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day.

In its report, Goldman Sachs said the possibility of political turmoil in major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia could lead to a significant rise in prices over the long-term.

The fundamental situation is not nearly as bad as what current oil prices would suggest

David de Garis, ANZ Investment Bank


US light, crude oil price
Brent crude oil price

The firm has raised its average US price forecasts for 2005 and 2006 to $50 and $55 a barrel from $41 and $40 respectively.

"Oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a 'super spike' period," said Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti.

This would result in "a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower prices return".

Tight supply

Prices have remained above $55 a barrel in recent days after data showed that US gasoline stocks fell last week while demand was 2% higher than this time last year.

Markets are also nervous about disruptions to supply after the recent fatal explosion at BP's largest refinery in the United States and a power failure which caused the closure of a Venezuelan refinery on Thursday.

However, other analysts said it would require a major disruption in supply to cause a spike in prices of such magnitude.

"The market is still of the mind that supply/demand is still very tight but the fundamental situation is not nearly as bad as what current oil prices would suggest," said David de Garis, an economist at ANZ Investment Bank

[mr_gyptian]

the national average is around a quarter more than the rolling three year average right now.

that comes to an extra four bucks, KQ.

lay off a happy meal or two.

[grrrr]

Went from 2.64 to 2.74 here today. I'm guessing 3.00 by May 15.


Anybody want to buy a F350? Good shape, low miles.

[tuffy109]

the national average is around a quarter more than the rolling three year average right now.

and, uhhh, when did this war shit start happening again?

[mr_gyptian]

and, uhhh, when did this war shit start happening again?

it was you guys calling it a war for oil, not me.

[KQ]

the national average is around a quarter more than the rolling three year average right now.

that comes to an extra four bucks, KQ.

lay off a happy meal or two.

Look Willard, read my post. In Woodinville, WA last night I paid $2.37/gal at Arco for 89-octane gas.

Guess we're an above average city. Pffttt - "averages" - crock of shit if you ask me. It has nothing to do with what I paid and you're only using it to your own end, which is to criticize me. I'm buying gas here in my town not on a four-wheel drift across the fucking country where it might just all average out for me.

(To be exactly accurate on what I bought and how much I bought it was $40.48 for 16.867 gallons plus a transaction fee of $0.35)

WTF? Happy Meals?

[mr_gyptian]

do you think if you'd have stepped up to the Premium a reach around would have happened?

[optics]

Not in Woodinville, but down in Sea-tac, definitely. They don't call it full-serve for nothing.

[KQ]

do you think if you'd have stepped up to the Premium a reach around would have happened?

Damn straight! I expect Premium service for that kind of money!

[LAN]

Not in Woodinville, but down in Sea-tac, definitely. They don't call it full-serve for nothing.

Sea-tac, almost as ghetto as heroin chic White Center.

[Stoysluttie1]

As i was riding th elift the past few days with Earth rapers, i over heard them say that the price of a barrel of oil is going to easily reach 85 bucks.

Can someone tell me how many gallons is in a barrel? Is it similar to a full size keg?

And just imagine all those big ass trucks that are going to be on sale...and on sale and on sale.

The rising cost of oil is also going to raise the cost of a whole bunch of other items such as food, clothing, etc. Better ask for a raise now.

Operation Iraqi Liberation

They sure threw the term LIberation out of the equation early and began using the word Freedom. Kind of funny if you think about it. Or not.

[LAN]

KQ, why are you going to the Arco? You'll burn through their petrol faster, since they use additives.

I guess if it was that costly at the Arco, I'm definitely not filling up anytime soon - my car takes 92 octane, so I'd best just bend over and grab my ankles ...

[KQ]

And just imagine all those big ass trucks that are going to be on sale...and on sale and on sale.

It's the 1970's all over again

[KQ]

KQ, why are you going to the Arco? You'll burn through their petrol faster, since they use additives.

I guess if it was that costly at the Arco, I'm definitely not filling up anytime soon - my car takes 92 octane, so I'd best just bend over and grab my ankles ...

I was on my way to the barn, I was on "E" and it was on the right side of the road. My previous fill up was at Shell on Mercer Island - I'll spare you the horror of how much I paid there.

I like to use 92 in my car but this time I opted out and just wanted to get it over with.

[LAN]

It's the 1970's all over again

I was just a and a glimmer in my Mother's eye during the 1970's.

[PNWbrit]

KQ, why are you going to the Arco? You'll burn through their petrol faster, since they use additives....

I call bullshit on that statment.

I'd be fascinated to hear reliable evidence to the contrary.

[LAN]

PNWbrit, you're feeling pretty fiesty lately, aren't you?

[PNWbrit]

PNWbrit, you're feeling pretty fiesty lately, aren't you?

Really? It must be hanging out here and being excited about winter arriving.

So tell me more about your ARCO gas mileage theory - I'm genuiniely interested not just trying to start a fight.

[LAN]

ARCO gas is 10% ethanol (they are required to post this on their pumps), which burns through your engine without giving you the same energy benefit of gasoline. If ethanol gave us the same energy as gas, then we would be filling our cars with 100% ethanol.

[Stoysluttie1]

Just curious..why 92 octane? What does you manual tell you to put in? Or, do you have an old car?

[optics]

Most of what I've seen about the arco low-mileage claims has been anecdotal, and there's been just as much to the contrary. Google it and check it out - lots of auto forums with people debating both sides.

The only real data I've seen puts the difference at 29.4mpg w/10% ethanol vs. 30 w/out, all else being equal. I don't know enough to assess the enviro benefits of ethanol, but from what I've read .6 mpg seems a small price to pay in exchange for using less of a non-renewable resource.

But, arco gas does make my car smell like farts when I go fast up hill more than other gas.

And I don't get a reach-around.