Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[skaredshtles]

<snip> New buyers - presumably many institutions among them - will swoop in knowing that poor sentiment and stabilized price action tend to precede major bull markets.

I'm genuinely curious - WHY would there be a(nother) bull market? Other than pure, *continued* speculation?

[skaredshtles]

Inertia & reflexive emotional interactions. As long as there's appetite and a place to trade it, it should move in cycles that are both fractal & continuous. BTC is like the stock market sped up 10x.

How long do you estimate that this will/can continue? Because... you know - eventually people are going to ask about the "value" of these things. And that's going to be a difficult for the hodlrs to explain.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> It's no more illusory than fiat currency from the standpoint that the tool itself is near-worthless. It's just a tool in a marketplace.

Well, in fiat currency's defense - at least it's stable.

And if it isn't - people tend to stay the fuck away from it... which I think will be the ultimate reason for bitcoin's downfall.

[ICantLogIn]

I'm feeling like a new Bitcoin ambassador/evangelist in the making here.

Preach some doom and gloom for a few 100 so I can get filled.

[stalefish3169]

Preach some doom and gloom for a few 100 so I can get filled.

Lol

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[splat]

I'm feeling like a new Bitcoin ambassador/evangelist in the making here.

So, is what you're saying is that bitcoin has no tangible value, unlike, let's say.....the tangible gold and silver reserves banks have; the paper for which, if redeemed all at once, would produce only about 10% of the metal that supposedly backs the paper. Doesn't the economy kinda run on air already?

[skaredshtles]

<snip> the paper for which, if redeemed all at once, would produce only about 10% of the metal that supposedly backs the paper.

Dude - this hasn't been the case since the early 70's...

[garyfromterrace]

Using prior cycles as a proxy, the basing period before new up cycle should last all year. But with heightened interest and better platform stability than the years where the last major crash occurred (Mt. Gox, I think?), it may be an abbreviated cycle that hits ATHs inside 2018 (ATHs def not a given btw, it's just favorable to take some risk to position to benefit from them). These types of things should be viewed as guiding framework to manage expectations, not certainties to then be judged like manufacturing tolerances.

RE: BTC value - it's $10k value right now. It has no cash flows, no P/E, and only limited intrinsic, transactional value that serves a fraction of the user base. The real 'value' is in the perception of it as a store-of-value by a substantial portion of millenials (the biggest generation of laborers in the world). As that perception waxes & wanes, its value will oscillate. Increased institutional participation will just feed the demand base (ex. if volatility lowers, ETFs will be commonplace & require some backing of underlying) and reinforce that SOV perception. So long as that perception exists, value will exist. It's no more illusory than fiat currency from the standpoint that the tool itself is near-worthless. It's just a tool in a marketplace.

I'm trying to understand this thing and posts like this sure help. Thanks Dro.

[liv2ski]

I understand bitcoin enough to know like tulip bulbs I will stay away from it and just buy physical gold if I want an alternative store of value. The same could be said for other physical investments like real estate. I want to be able to touch and hold an investment.
I will go for slow and steady, rather than hoping for rabbit like returns, that still eventually lose the race. YRMV

[4matic]

So, is what you're saying is that bitcoin has no tangible value, unlike, let's say.....the tangible gold and silver reserves banks have; the paper for which, if redeemed all at once, would produce only about 10% of the metal that supposedly backs the paper. Doesn't the economy kinda run on air already?

Credit is a commodity traded globally. Intrinsic value of gold is small as jewelry is its largest use. Yes, banks hold gold just like they hold credit but not a lot. Most of the money center banks have gotten out of gold.

BTC looks like a failed rally below the peak of the previous right shoulder. I have no idea where the wave count is but I suspect the it is important now.

[AKPogue]

https://medium.com/theblock1/popping...y-7130156f91b2

[splat]

Good article, Dave!

[shroom]

i really like the analyses, dro. i had the same conversation with a few buddies the other night. i fall more in the old man camp with my funds, but i ain’t ignorant to the phenomenon.

[stalefish3169]

Interesting. Goldman Sachs backed Circle buys Poloniex.

http://fortune.com/2018/02/26/circle...trade-bitcoin/

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[stalefish3169]

Okay, this is pretty badass! Can't wait to see how stuff like this continues to evolve. Decentralized supercomputing!

https://algorithmia.com/research/ml-...-on-blockchain
Using blockchain technology, it is possible to create contracts that offer a reward in exchange for a trained machine learning model for a particular data set. This would allow users to train machine learning models for a reward in a trustless manner.

The smart contract will use the blockchain to automatically validate the solution, so there would be no debate about whether the solution was correct or not. Users who submit the solutions won’t have counterparty risk that they won’t get paid for their work. Contracts can be created easily by anyone with a dataset, even programmatically by software agents.

This creates a market where parties who are good at solving machine learning problems can directly monetize their skillset, and where any organization or software agent that has a problem to solve with AI can solicit solutions from all over the world. This will incentivize the creation of better machine learning models, and make AI more accessible to companies and software agents.

A consequence of creating this market is that there will be a well defined price of GPU training for machine learning models. Crypto-currency mining also uses GPUs in many cases. We can envision a world where at any given moment, miners can choose to direct their hardware to work on whichever workload is more profitable: cryptocurrency mining, or machine learning training.



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[4matic]

That’s nice but I see no justification of Bitcoin as a currency/asset in all that.

[365wp]

Decentralized supercomputing!

Yeah, exactly. Check out what https://neuromation.io/en/ is doing, if you haven't already.

The ML services offered by the big three cloud vendors look to be amazing...this has the potential to be as amazing without the vendor lock-in.

[stalefish3169]

That’s nice but I see no justification of Bitcoin as a currency/asset in all that.

If you didn't know, smart contracts are a primary differentiation between BTC and Ethereum. Their functionality is largely responsible for ETH's number 2 market cap valuation.

Yeah, exactly. Check out what https://neuromation.io/en/ is doing, if you haven't already.

The ML services offered by the big three cloud vendors look to be amazing...this has the potential to be as amazing without the vendor lock-in.

I'm very long on decentralization. Amazon for instance is in it for Amazon. With decentralization the maximum benefits go to the users...not corporate shareholders.

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[Bromontana]

Vgdd

[ICantLogIn]

80% cash right now.

[skaredshtles]

80% cash right now.

Bitcoins?

Dollars?

Some other "currency"?

[ICantLogIn]

Cash usd and now we go up. FUK lul

[ICantLogIn]

10.2 or 10.7 first fuk

[ICantLogIn]

Overstock ICO incoming.

[skaredshtles]