I just about fell out of my chair as well, Toby. This may be the first time I've agreed with Hugh as well!
Anyway, I WAS out yesterday, and I agree with the SAC forecast of Moderate. We managed to set off a little slide (1' crown, about 60' wide, ran for 50') that broke on a convex roll between some sizable rocks--duh!). Other laps resulted in nothing, not even slough.
Frankly I find the whole discussion about avy hazard here in the Sierras can be a bit hysterical. Coming from Western Colorado, where I learned to ski and learned to ski in the backcountry, the Sierra seems boring--in a good way. We almost never deal with nasty persistent layers far down in the snowpack like in a Continental zone, so hazards are almost always new snow or transported snow. This does not mean that there is no danger here, only that it is simpler to assess, and the danger zones are more obvious (and therefore easy to avoid).
The avy report offers excellent information, but I suggest you completely ignore the Low/Moderate/Considerable/High rating and just READ THE WHOLE ADVISORY. The good stuff is where they talk about what/where the hazards are (wind slab, new snow, wet slides, etc). If you know what is likely to be hazardous you can avoid it. Even on Considerable days there are plenty of places that have virtually no hazard (either because they won't slide or because there is no consequence if they do). Likewise on Moderate or Low days there are places where you shouldn't go. Terrain awareness is the #1 tool.
I'll get off my soapbox now.
(Disclaimer: I'm not an avalanche expert, just a skier. If you go out into the backcountry, you will almost certainly die a horrible death in an avalanche, so I recommend you stay on the groomers. Better yet, stay at home--even the roads are too dangerous!)
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