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Thread: Quantitative Risk Analysis of Riding in Avalanche Terrain

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    than play around in the range with the best most western like terrain in the east
    rog
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  2. #52
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    speaking of ugly^^^^^^^

    rog

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    actually I did know it so well as right before skiing into the line I advised my partner to get his camera out in case the thing went.
    "Hey bro, ima bout to drop in this sketch line! Its prolly gonna slide. Make sure you're ready with the shutter!! It's gonna be rad!"
    #HughConwayMatters

  4. #54
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    I don't talk like that. I do however enjoy the site and sounds of snow moving down mountain sides. watching the dust cloud rise into the sky. had he caught it on film it woulda been something to see. a coupla guys I know were skiing one drainage over when the slide occurred. they were amazed at the site of it. when we skied through the woods over to where the two guys were skiing, they were glad that I didn't die cuz doing some digging wasn't part of their tour plan for the day.

    rog

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    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier
    more often then not you can ski good snow on George from t2b in winter on the lee side of the hill. good edgeable quiet chalky snow much of the time with beautiful powder snow more often than you would think at any and all elevations depending on the day.
    This from the guy that spent his winter surfing 2' waves off the coast of Maine.

    How many days "up high" Rog? Bet you can count em' on one hand.
    #HughConwayMatters

  6. #56
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    Uh oh, I missed out on more discussion of backcountry skiing because I was out . . . backcountry skiing:
    http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...21#post4028721

    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    a majority of the only real alpine/above treeline/avy terrain in the east where you teach courses (inside and away from avy terrain) and you find it an unattractive wintertime option? weird.
    No, not weird, but perfectly consistent.

    First of all, I do not spend *any* course time indoors in winter during daylight hours.
    Any avy course time during the winter daylight hours (pretty much all of which I use up each day) is spent ski touring (plus some rescue scenarios).
    And my students get to see more avy terrain (not *away* from it as you describe it) than from any other Level 1 providers on Mt Washington.
    (This is admittedly in large part b/c my course delivery model presents some problems for any commercial course provider who aims to attain any sort of reasonable and financially viable student volume. But I was very pleased to see EMS often getting up to Jacob's Ladder on Day 2 this year. Plus Jesse Williams was advertising a Daks kind of "L1+" that looked to have far more field time.)

    But getting to the main point, yes, that's right, I use Mt Washington to teach avy courses in the winter, but I don't really care to ski much there in the winter.
    My total winter avy terrain tally this year was 7 in our Presidentials (out of 18 total for the season) plus 5 in three other states (out of 12 total, across the winter, spring, and summer), which coincidentally represent the three more "traditional" avy climates besides our weird arctic maritime.
    Of my 513,000' earned vertical for turns, yes, some very high % was ski area skinning or below-treeline backcountry in terrain that doesn't even have a treeline.
    Sure, the Presidentials Range has plenty of high-quality turns much of the time at or above treeline. But I suspect the safety margin is much smaller for many of those supposedly safe tours than is supposed by the ski tourers. I have no desire to take that kind of risk, and the options for lower-risk routes just aren't really there, because of the combination of topography and weather.
    In more detail:
    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6QM...it?usp=sharing
    Mo' skimo here: NE Rando Race Series

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan S. View Post
    And my students get to see more avy terrain
    seeing is different than being in. if there aren't the 4 ingredients present for the risk of avalanches, you aren't in avalanche terrain. you said it yerself, you have no desire to take that kind of risk.

    (not *away* from it as you describe it) than from any other Level 1 providers on Mt Washington.
    not true. MC brings his students all over the mountain, even in burly conditions in and around avy terrain.
    Sure, the Presidentials Range has plenty of high-quality turns much of the time at or above treeline. But I suspect the safety margin is much smaller for many of those supposedly safe tours than is supposed by the ski tourers. I have no desire to take that kind of risk, and the options for lower-risk routes just aren't really there, because of the combination of topography and weather.
    the risk up there is what you make of it. tons of options for low risk routes given the topography and weather. your 4 hour drive to the mountain is much more risky than most any day up high in AVY terrain so long as you can manage the terrain for the conditions at hand.

    rog

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    seeing is different than being in. if there aren't the 4 ingredients present for the risk of avalanches, you aren't in avalanche terrain.
    Leading students in, through, and around avy terrain is exactly the kind of routefinding and decisionmaking that needs to be taught in avy courses, and that’s exactly what I’ve been able to do. (And admittedly, largely because I’m free from financial viable constraints, and have therefore been able to set up various requirements that limit the potential student pool to almost nothing, i.e., take an early March avy course by completing extensive reading, writing, and other assignments in . . . October. But I would like to see commercial providers offer a kind of two-tiered approach, which seems like what Jesse Williams was essentially trying to do with his L1+.)

    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    MC brings his students all over the mountain, even in burly conditions in and around avy terrain.
    We’ve been through this before. As much as we both respect MC, if you think that a L1 course for a random unconnected group of students (as opposed to, say, a course for an outing club or other group where the students already know each other) is typically doing anything other than just poking around at the base of one or two ravines during an entire three-day course, then you just don’t know what an avy instructor is up against out here. (And your incredulity at the trip report from a TGR poster this season – although certainly well merited – definitely revealed that. Consider yourself fortunate not to have to deal with all that. Kind of reminds me when as an NCAA alpine race coach I walked into all these PSIA clinics and one of their examiners had to give me a reality check of what a typical ski instructor typically encounters.)

    Even out West, the debriefing for an AIARE L2 fatality was shocking, i.e., you can vet all you want yet a total b.s. skier might ruin it for everyone (or merely just himself in that particular case).

    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    the risk up there is what you make of it.
    Agreed. And you have certainly demonstrated both extremes re before/after.

    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    your 4 hour drive to the mountain is much more risky than most any day up high in AVY terrain so long as you can manage the terrain for the conditions at hand.
    Three hours to my favorite trailhead there.
    But agreed on the driving risk (whether to there or anywhere else in New England in winter conditions).
    Yet also entirely irrelevant to the risk to be taken once safely arrived at the trailhead.
    Mo' skimo here: NE Rando Race Series

  9. #59
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    right on. well I hope we get to ski together for at least one lap this winter/spring

    rog

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan S. View Post
    Uh oh, I missed out on more discussion of backcountry skiing because I was out . . . backcountry skiing:

    Of my 513,000' earned vertical for turns,
    nobody cares that you count your vert bro
    nobody is really "stuck" in east
    it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
    Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
    ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
    but feel free to remind us every other post
    "When the child was a child it waited patiently for the first snow and it still does"- Van "The Man" Morrison
    "I find I have already had my reward, in the doing of the thing" - Buzz Holmstrom
    "THIS IS WHAT WE DO"-AML -ski on in eternal peace
    "I have posted in here but haven't read it carefully with my trusty PoliAsshat antenna on."-DipshitDanno

  11. #61
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    yer right, nobody is "stuck" here. some of us prefer living here, or we would live elsewhere. I've never had ANYTHING holding me back. as you know I sampled the satch where you transplanted yerself to, what, almost 14 years back? (disturbing that you still kinda suck at skiing the pow after all those years, wasted), and you know what? ya sure the skiing was nice, but I would NEVER wanna reside there. skiing meh to middlin? have you ever even pivot skidded yer way around out here? ever been here?

    I say let yer skiing do the talking 1st, bro. a bunch of shit is all it is.

    rog

  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by icelanticskier View Post
    I've never had ANYTHING holding me back. have you ever even pivot skidded yer way around out here? ever been here?


    rog
    tell us more about your avvy expertise you gleened in your month in canada before mummy quit sendin livin the dream checks.
    I think pinner nailed the arrie cert in this post.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pinner View Post
    Maybe I'm playing semantics, but I've got to insert this here because it's important that we all speak the same language and understand what we think we know about avy education.

    You didn't "get" and you don't "have" your Level 1 or Level 2. No one does. You might have completed a Level 1 or Level 2 course. And I congratulate you for it.

    There is no such thing as a Level 1 or Level 2 "cert." The certificate you were given by your course provider certifies that you showed up each morning and probably hung around on the last day long enough to trade phone numbers. You could have slept though the entire course for all we know (which, no doubt, at least a few people have.)

    There's a reason for this: the only AIARE course with a written and practical exam is Level 3, which is a professional level course requiring a solid base of experience and a serious commitment to the craft. "The Level 3 course is an advanced certification course for experienced and professional avalanche practitioners, professional guides, patrollers and advanced recreational backcountry travelers." Show that you're competent (ie: run with the big dogs) and you'll be recognized for it with a L3 cert.

    Others are far better qualified to speak to this, but as I understand it, the AIARE curriculum has evolved over the last couple years to put a greater emphasis on terrain identification at L1, leaving the snow science to L2. The course titles reflect this:

    AIARE Level 1: Decision Making In Avalanche Terrain

    AIARE Level 2: Analyzing Snow Stability And Avalanche Hazard

    AIARE Level 3: Advanced Avalanche Training For Professionals And Recreational Leaders


    I've spent a fair bit of time learning about the course progression from the AIARE directors and consulted with them closely as we tweaked the FOBP curriculum into a solid, foundational awareness class-- a "pre level 1" if you will. It's been an eye-opening and humbling process.

    Take it for what it's worth, but I strongly believe it's important that we all use the same vocabulary, base our assumptions about someone's level of training on the same criteria, and most significantly, acknowledge that as much as you think you know, there's a guy not far away who knows a LOT more than you. Nine times out of ten, they're quieter than you are. (interesting to note: I've never met anyone who told me they had a L3 without me asking.)

    This is why we feel it is so important to be an apprentice and a mentor throughout your entire career as a backcountry skier. Personally, the older I get, the more friends I lose to the mountains, the humbler I become and the more I realize that I still have a shitload to learn.
    don't know anybody out west that would waste time goin farther east than brolorado to ski
    so hows come your bro didn't get the roj vrs the white wave of death shots
    did he leave his camera in his pack to yo yo 1/4 laps with a shovel and probe.
    if you go light you can get 5 1/4 laps
    thats even more vert than 1 full lap
    bobblehead avi logic 101 bro
    "When the child was a child it waited patiently for the first snow and it still does"- Van "The Man" Morrison
    "I find I have already had my reward, in the doing of the thing" - Buzz Holmstrom
    "THIS IS WHAT WE DO"-AML -ski on in eternal peace
    "I have posted in here but haven't read it carefully with my trusty PoliAsshat antenna on."-DipshitDanno

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
    tell us more about your avvy expertise you gleened in your month in canada before mummy quit sendin livin the dream checks.
    been livin completely on my own dime since I left high school. no mummy checks. anything else you wanna make up, beater?

    don't know anybody out west that would waste time goin farther east than brolorado to ski
    then stfu

    so hows come your bro didn't get the roj vrs the white wave of death shots
    he was cold

    did he leave his camera in his pack to yo yo 1/4 laps with a shovel and probe.
    if you go light you can get 5 1/4 laps
    thats even more vert than 1 full lap
    bobblehead avi logic 101 bro
    poor form to make digs at one of the most generous, thoughtful, and approachable avy educators/forecasters in Utah. not surprising tho coming from you. you are poor form.

    rog

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
    nobody cares that you count your vert bro
    nobody is really "stuck" in east
    it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
    Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
    ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
    but feel free to remind us every other post
    Usually I don't even read your posts, let alone respond to them, but since you took the time and care in this one post to use hard returns, and even some punctuation and capitalization, here goes:

    1. I know you don't care how much vertical I record each season, but some of my backcountry buddies are into that. Plus I wanted to make the point that my winter touring on Mt Washington amounts to a very small percentage of all earned turns throughout my ski season, and I think the quantitative illustration of that is helpful.

    2. Yes, except for a friend who had child custody issues, I don't know any skier who is truly "stuck" in the East in the sense of having no choice in it whatsoever. But for a signature block, I think it is a reasonable way of conveying the feeling many of us have here regarding are admittedly typical "meh to middlin" skiing that we put up with because of other reasons we choice to live here. (Notable exceptions to the typical "meh to middlin" skiing: the excellent untracked powder you can ski if you know where to go and have a flexible work schedule to get after it immediately before it quickly gets tracked up or crusted over; the Presidentials in good weather, especially later in the winter or early in the spring; numerous venues for rando race training, if you're into that; xc skate skiing, if you're into that.)

    3. Yes, I do know people who have failed avy classes. Specifically, when I reviewed NSP avy course data (for another purpose entirely), I did see some "Fail" marks. And I have assigned some "Incomplete" marks to students that were essentially You're Going to Fail So Drop Out Now. Also, for L3 courses with certification exams, yes, the pass rate is not 100%.

    4. I think the coaching reference was a useful analogy in my exchange with Roger. Intro-level avy courses (i.e., typically Level 1) are often very limited in the extent of touring possibilities because they have to cater to the lowest common denominator in terms of fitness + ability + gear of whoever shows up. Ditto for PSIA instruction. Contrast that with Roger's experiences with his touring partners and my experiences with ski racers, respectively.
    Mo' skimo here: NE Rando Race Series

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    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
    nobody cares that you count your vert bro
    nobody is really "stuck" in east
    it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
    Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
    ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
    but feel free to remind us every other post
    I will second that this is very poor form - last dude you should be calling out in an avy thread
    Climb the mountains and get their good tidings. Natures peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop away from you like the leaves of Autumn. - John Muir

    "How long can it last? For fuck sake this isn't heroin -
    suck it up princess" - XXX on getting off mj

    “This is infinity here,” he said. “It could be infinity. We don’t really don’t know. But it could be. It has to be something — but it could be infinity, right?” - Trump, on the vastness of space, man

  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan S. View Post
    Usually I don't even read your posts, let alone respond to them, but since you took the time and care in this one post to use hard returns, and even some punctuation and capitalization, here goes:

    1. I know you don't care how much vertical I record each season, but some of my backcountry buddies are into that. Plus I wanted to make the point that my winter touring on Mt Washington amounts to a very small percentage of all earned turns throughout my ski season, and I think the quantitative illustration of that is helpful.

    2. Yes, except for a friend who had child custody issues, I don't know any skier who is truly "stuck" in the East in the sense of having no choice in it whatsoever. But for a signature block, I think it is a reasonable way of conveying the feeling many of us have here regarding are admittedly typical "meh to middlin" skiing that we put up with because of other reasons we choice to live here. (Notable exceptions to the typical "meh to middlin" skiing: the excellent untracked powder you can ski if you know where to go and have a flexible work schedule to get after it immediately before it quickly gets tracked up or crusted over; the Presidentials in good weather, especially later in the winter or early in the spring; numerous venues for rando race training, if you're into that; xc skate skiing, if you're into that.)

    3. Yes, I do know people who have failed avy classes. Specifically, when I reviewed NSP avy course data (for another purpose entirely), I did see some "Fail" marks. And I have assigned some "Incomplete" marks to students that were essentially You're Going to Fail So Drop Out Now. Also, for L3 courses with certification exams, yes, the pass rate is not 100%.

    4. I think the coaching reference was a useful analogy in my exchange with Roger. Intro-level avy courses (i.e., typically Level 1) are often very limited in the extent of touring possibilities because they have to cater to the lowest common denominator in terms of fitness + ability + gear of whoever shows up. Ditto for PSIA instruction. Contrast that with Roger's experiences with his touring partners and my experiences with ski racers, respectively.
    Well said JS and even the more confused here might understand

    Liked the earlier car/driving analogy as related to stability and decision making.
    Climb the mountains and get their good tidings. Natures peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop away from you like the leaves of Autumn. - John Muir

    "How long can it last? For fuck sake this isn't heroin -
    suck it up princess" - XXX on getting off mj

    “This is infinity here,” he said. “It could be infinity. We don’t really don’t know. But it could be. It has to be something — but it could be infinity, right?” - Trump, on the vastness of space, man

  17. #67
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    i don't understand.
    b
    .

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by flowing alpy View Post
    i don't understand.
    b
    it's ok b-man. so long as you make it home every day from your daily adventures, you know all that you need to know.

    quite the TR, eh? fucking classic entertainment, as always. heh.

    rog

  19. #69
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    I learned years ago not to come to TGR for the ski debate/discussions. It's like beating your head against a wall.



    the porn is pretty good tho
    Quote Originally Posted by Hohes View Post
    I couldn't give a fuck, but today I am procrastinating so TGR is my filler.
    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
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    get paid

  20. #70
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    ^^^^^smart man.

    i figured between working 4-8 hours a day, surfing 2-5 hours a day, along with life i'd have no extra time for fucking around on here. man was i wrong

    you get out this week? been good all week.

    rog

  21. #71
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    maybe tomorrow, hows it looking?

    Wed seemed like it piddled out so I cancelled, only to read about your exploits in the 'goods' thread
    Quote Originally Posted by Hohes View Post
    I couldn't give a fuck, but today I am procrastinating so TGR is my filler.
    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
    faceshots are a powerful currency
    get paid

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat View Post
    maybe tomorrow, hows it looking?
    i'll be on it from 5-7am, or before the wind gets uncooperative.

    then: http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/kennebunk-maine

    fun surf right through the week. wind/tide/aspect depending. won't even need the longboard. always a bonus.

    Wed seemed like it piddled out so I cancelled, only to read about your exploits in the 'goods' thread
    wednesday (in maine, 1/2 size in nh, usually the case) was insane at ogt. as you read. thursday was waist/chest meh but got some fun ones. yesterday am was about as fun as wednesday, easily. sleeper day fer sure. this morning...........yeah fkna good. holy moly.

    so get yer ass down here already. don't know if tomorrow will be worth yer drive, but.........

    rog

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    Quote Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat View Post
    I learned years ago not to come. It's like beating your head against a wall.



    the porn is pretty good tho
    used to be better imo
    b
    .

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by flowing alpy View Post
    used to be better imo
    b
    Well when u put it that way...
    ;-)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hohes View Post
    I couldn't give a fuck, but today I am procrastinating so TGR is my filler.
    Quote Originally Posted by skifishbum View Post
    faceshots are a powerful currency
    get paid

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