What's the number?

[Marshall Tucker]

To retire at 55, what're you figuring you need in the bank?y.

Most of the CPA CPE events I've attended on this are lining up behind when you retire, you should be withdrawing no more than 2.5% of what you have in the bank per year.

Say you think you can get by on a buck 25, you'll need 5m in the bank. Now, a lot, and mean a whole lot, of folks are like "shit, I can make 12% in the market, fuck 2.5%." What 2.5 provides for is increased life expectancy, and healthcare cost is the wildcard in all of it. Not to mention medicare going bankrupt (late 2020s) then social security (2032 or so). So, plan as you will...

[dan_pdx]

Most of the CPA CPE events I've attended on this are lining up behind when you retire, you should be withdrawing no more that 2.5% of what you have in the bank per year.

Say you think you can get by on a buck 25, you'll need 5m in the bank. Now, a lot, and mean a whole lot, of folks are like "shit, I can make 12% in the market, fuck 2.5%." What 2.5 provides for is increased life expectancy, and healthcare cost is the wildcard in all of it. Not to mention medicare going bankrup (late 2020s) then social seducrity (2032 or so). So, plan as you will...

When you say "in the bank", you're talking about your invested principal, right? Not actually having all your money in a savings account or whatever. If you actually had 5m and were only drawing down $125k/year even conservative investments would have the nest egg growing over time. I'm confident I won't have a $5m nest egg though.

As far as healthcare, I'm thinking that medical tourism to Mexico may be in my future in retirement.

[Benny Profane]

Medicare is the best insurance you'll ever have.

[sirbumpsalot]

Most of the CPA CPE events I've attended on this are lining up behind when you retire, you should be withdrawing no more that 2.5% of what you have in the bank per year.

Say you think you can get by on a buck 25, you'll need 5m in the bank. Now, a lot, and mean a whole lot, of folks are like "shit, I can make 12% in the market, fuck 2.5%." What 2.5 provides for is increased life expectancy, and healthcare cost is the wildcard in all of it. Not to mention medicare going bankrup (late 2020s) then social seducrity (2032 or so). So, plan as you will...

End of the world talk...99% of the population will not achieve this lofty goal...but somehow if you get this hypothetical $5M, you will be able to live a fairly middle class lifestyle by tightening your belt...and the masses will not descend on your property with pitchforks and relieve you of your "pile".

[The AD]

Just remember, there's a big difference between 55 and 65 or 70 as far as your body is concerned.

I told a buddy who is a skier and has lived in the mountains when I was 50 that I had the typical dream, retiring to high Colorado. Well, housing inflation killed that thing, but, at the time, he just laughed. You won't be able to ski that much when you're old, and there's nothing else to do. He was right.

This happened to a guy I worked with. I think he first intended to retire in his late 50s or maybe 60, but he didn't like where the stock market, and thus, his retirement portfolio was at the time. So he kept working for a few more years and by then he wasn't really skiing because, although he was still in good shape physically he had started to have balance issues. OTOH my uncle still skis regularly in his mid 80s, although I think he's down to a couple hours when he goes. Still a lot better than nothing!

[XXX-er]

isnt there some kind of free HC down thar when you hit 65 ?

I don't have huge amounts in the bank but they just keep sending me money

[XXX-er]

This happened to a guy I worked with. I think he first intended to retire in his late 50s or maybe 60, but he didn't like where the stock market, and thus, his retirement portfolio was at the time. So he kept working for a few more years and by then he wasn't really skiing because, although he was still in good shape physically he had started to have balance issues. OTOH my uncle still skis regularly in his mid 80s, although I think he's down to a couple hours when he goes. Still a lot better than nothing!

IME there really is no way to tell how that will shake out cuz everbody is different, I ski with a guy who had been doing 10'ks and marathons he slowed considerably but he had smoked

i'm trying to claw my way back from taking 2 yrs off to get a new ACL which means hitting the gym every day and its working albeit slowly

[Benny Profane]

This happened to a guy I worked with. I think he first intended to retire in his late 50s or maybe 60, but he didn't like where the stock market, and thus, his retirement portfolio was at the time. So he kept working for a few more years and by then he wasn't really skiing because, although he was still in good shape physically he had started to have balance issues. OTOH my uncle still skis regularly in his mid 80s, although I think he's down to a couple hours when he goes. Still a lot better than nothing!

I've now watched three good friends die of cancer before 65.

And that's a whole other thing. You're going to move away from whatever friends haven't died (that's what happens at a certain age - your friends die) and your other social contacts, which are pretty damn important, to a place where you don't know anybody?

[toast2266]

Honestly a tough answer. Goals are having house paid off (on track), have $3M+ in liquid assets (on track, but not there), have passive income source for $50k+/PY (still working on this). I figure that I'll need ~$125k/PY once things are paid off. I live within my means, max out 401k and have no debt other than the house. Need to spend more time on the finances and planning this year. Wife wants to stay here once kids are gone, so will need to plan for that.

Right on. Those are roughly the numbers that I've been vaguely aiming for, but it's all so murky. Mostly with respect to: how long am I going to live, and how much will healthcare cost? Budgeting for housing / food / travel / bikes and skis is pretty straightforward, but I don't have a great concept of how much healthcare will cost under the current system, much less under whatever healthcare system we have when I'm 80.

[sirbumpsalot]

IME there really is no way to tell how that will shake out cuz everbody is different, I ski with a guy who had been doing 10'ks and marathons he slowed considerably but he had smoked

i'm trying to claw my way back from taking 2 yrs off to get a new ACL which means hitting the gym every day and its working albeit slowly

Yes everyone is different....cancer you can't plan for...its like the lotto...the bad lotto. However what seems to be sort of consistent from my older active friends...late 50's to early 60's some sort of injury will be permanent or extremely limiting to heal and cause a shift in activity. From running marathon down to perhaps 5K's...from skiing 30 days a year hardcore to skiing 10-20days of year on groomers...and going to the gym desires greatly fade exponentially as you age! Healthy eating be damned too.

Everyone thinks they will be just like that 80yr old guy doing the ironman...but odds are you won't be no matter how hard you think you will try.

However each generation seems to push the ball further down the field. That is the hope going forward.

[The AD]

I think the key is having a variety of interests that have a wide spectrum of physical demands. If you can't ski or mountain bike anymore you need something else to fall back on.

[XXX-er]

I've now watched three good friends die of cancer before 65.

And that's a whole other thing. You're going to move away from whatever friends haven't died (that's what happens at a certain age - your friends die) and your other social contacts, which are pretty damn important, to a place where you don't know anybody?

This ^^ I can't really figure out if people in this thread just have diarrhea of the mouth or are serioulsy willing to move anywhere in the excited states like lemming off a cliff ?

when i did the whole move to a mountain town and fuck it up for the locals AKA the amenity migrant, i tried it out for most of a year so i had a clue and i was younger

edit: did i mention I met a woman who wanted to have sex with me ?

[jm2e]

Everyone thinks they’re gonna sprint to the finish, or maybe waltz to the finish. Followed quickly by a chest grabber or the big C. Best case scenario, fall asleep and don’t wake up. “Worst case” scenario, sick for a few months as people cycle through and bid farewell.
Actual worst case is something closer to Stroke, Dementia or Severe disability that leaves you (or your spouse) lingering for years. Ever price out Long Term Care (aka nursing home)? I’d plan on $10k/month for a private room. Maybe double/triple that in 10 years.


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[dunfree]

Everyone thinks they’re gonna sprint to the finish, or maybe waltz to the finish. Followed quickly by a chest grabber or the big C. Best case scenario, fall asleep and don’t wake up. “Worst case” scenario, sick for a few months as people cycle through and bid farewell.
Actual worst case is something closer to Stroke, Dementia or Severe disability that leaves you (or your spouse) lingering for years. Ever price out Long Term Care (aka nursing home)? I’d plan on $10k/month for a private room. Maybe double/triple that in 10 years.


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These people are smart and loved, no one will take advantage of them in their dotage

to be fair there’s also often a dip for retirees- they start off spending and traveling and whatevering but things catch up and they Benny - watch fox and troll for a half or full decade - before the nursing home bills hit

[The AD]

The worst case scenario is definitely bleak. Dr. Kevorkian was no criminal.

[XXX-er]

i will probably get killed crossing the street coming home form the craft brew

up here the nursing homes are free if you don't have any income so at that stage you wana own things that don't produce income

my mom was complaining she got charged for things so I pointed out she was 90 and still making way too much money, why not give it away now to which she sneered y'll get my money when I'm dead

[Mazderati]

up here the nursing homes are free if you don't have any income so at that stage you wana own things that don't produce income

The US system goes beyond income restrictions and requires liquidation of almost all savings and possessions before the privatized nursing home bill is picked up. Unless there is well-planned legal wrangling years in advance.

[schuss]

Most of the CPA CPE events I've attended on this are lining up behind when you retire, you should be withdrawing no more than 2.5% of what you have in the bank per year.

Say you think you can get by on a buck 25, you'll need 5m in the bank. Now, a lot, and mean a whole lot, of folks are like "shit, I can make 12% in the market, fuck 2.5%." What 2.5 provides for is increased life expectancy, and healthcare cost is the wildcard in all of it. Not to mention medicare going bankrupt (late 2020s) then social security (2032 or so). So, plan as you will...

Need a cite on those bankruptcy dates. Most projections put SS at 75% around that stage with zero changes. A narrative of "these will be bankrupt" is false and only emboldens those that want to cut additional support out.

[The AD]

Need a cite on those bankruptcy dates. Most projections put SS at 75% around that stage with zero changes. A narrative of "these will be bankrupt" is false and only emboldens those that want to cut additional support out.

With an ever aging population it's pretty difficult to imagine either of those going bye-bye is much of a possibility.

[yeahman]

Fuck nursing homes. I'll end life on my own terms before I go sit in one of those places. What a waste of money.

[climberevan]

Honestly a tough answer. Goals are having house paid off (on track), have $3M+ in liquid assets (on track, but not there), have passive income source for $50k+/PY (still working on this). I figure that I'll need ~$125k/PY once things are paid off. I live within my means, max out 401k and have no debt other than the house. Need to spend more time on the finances and planning this year. Wife wants to stay here once kids are gone, so will need to plan for that.

Is this typical for you guys? I could live very comfortably on $50/k yr in my (paid off already) house. What do you need the other $75k for? I'm not judging, just curious. Is it the kid costs, or are you assuming that would end?

[XXX-er]

Fuck nursing homes. I'll end life on my own terms before I go sit in one of those places. What a waste of money.

what if you foreget to off yourself ?

my buddy took away his dads trike cuz he was falling off of it and pulling out in traffic, so I asked how does Dave feel about you taking away the trike ?

Dave didn't remember he had a trike,

[jm2e]

Fuck nursing homes. I'll end life on my own terms before I go sit in one of those places. What a waste of money.

It’s a good theory.
But more likely the thing that pushes you over the edge sneaks up on you and leaves you unable to pull your own trigger.
Or it’ll be your spouse.


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[XXX-er]

Is this typical for you guys? I could live very comfortably on $50/k yr in my (paid off already) house. What do you need the other $75k for? I'm not judging, just curious. Is it the kid costs, or are you assuming that would end?

same here ^^ once its all paid for, I am a pretty good tipper at the craft brew

[sirbumpsalot]

The US system goes beyond income restrictions and requires liquidation of almost all savings and possessions before the privatized nursing home bill is picked up. Unless there is well-planned legal wrangling years in advance.

Well why should the taxpayer pick up the bill so someone can give their inheritance to their kids who probably are well off themselves?