Wasatch Conditions 11-12

[sfotex]

why is there not more discussion about how bad of an idea it was to be in Little Chute at all yesterday?

What is there to talk about? Was it a really bad idea, or a really really bad idea? There are some people feeling really stupid right now (if they got lucky). Lessons have been learned, there is no need for public flogging. Letting them tell their story so others can learn is what needs to happen now.

[backcountryben]

backcountry ben - you are right and

My question to you then is, Did you go out yesterday? Of course you did. We all learned a little something yesterday. Only in person can we really make these decisions. I took all the precautions I new how to make then computed that info into my Pow Seeking soul then sent it! I did walk away and I am sharing my perspective with the collective. No angst or anything here just love. I have made many similar decisions and I support mine. I just don't want others thinking that they will be as lucky if they tempt the white dragon.

I was cautioned by my patroller friends, watched and learned on my way, have skied little chute dozens of times in the pre-season, and overall made the determination that I was walking away. Shit could have gone different but it didn't. I am lucky but made as many of the correct decisions I could make along the way. Today, - yesterday seems 20/20 but I do lack the visionary skill to predict the future. My bud and I were very verbal about everything that was going to happen. I even had a moment with him where we discussed "if something does happen..."

That is what was on my mind - what I didn't share is that the turns were ridiculously deep and I enjoyed every single one, even my nopoleon experience after the fact down to the car. The hand drags were amazing and I love skiing the POW POW

I guess to some degree it's this attitude that I take issue with. We all love powder skiing, and I've skied Baldy early season too (including main chute during the October storm). However, I made the determination that the risk/reward was not right yesterday, and instead spent the day poking around other parts of Alta in the trees. That is admittedly a personal decision, as we all have different standards of risk. Although I've never met him, I know from Jaime's exploits that he had a very different standard of risk than I do, and that's fine. The thing is, that's small consolation today.

From my perspective, yesterday doesn't seem like a day that requires particularly visionary skills to predict the outcome of skiing something like Little Chute. It wasn't one of those "high consequence, low probability" days. I'm sure the turns were awesome, and really enjoyable. But if you had the same set of information you had BEFORE you dropped in yesterday (ie you didn't KNOW it was going to slide), would you make the same decision again? If so, why? I would argue that even without the benefit of hindsight it was not good decision making to head up Baldy yesterday. I was chatting with a patroller at Alta toward the late afternoon yesterday and he mentioned that there had been a slide in Little Chute and my first thought was disbelief that anyone had thought it was a good idea to ski it today (followed shortly by surprise and thankful feelings that you were essentially unhurt. It sounds like you appreciate how lucky you were though!)

I'm not trying to point fingers, and I am glad that you took the time to post your experience up here. I know this might come off as monday morning quarterbacking, which can be a huge PITA, but I really do want to hear more about the thought process, in the hopes that other people don't repeat your mistake with a less happy outcome.

[Johnny Deep]

Everything happens in the moment. If you are not there, the best one can do is second guess. I've made hasty decisions that could have been something other than what they were. I remember saying a bunch of time "Watch me, don't lose me on this one".

As someone already said here or on another thread: 'Everyday is a potential avy day'. This is more true than many will ever admit too.

The only way to achieve zero risk in the bc is to stay home.

[glademaster]

I read the avalanche bulletin regularly, it basically confirmed what I said in my initial post, albeit in slightly less concrete terms. What I was saying is that this faceted layer from October, while common on NW-E facing slopes, is not everywhere. Plenty of areas at lower elevations or on sunnier aspects do not have this faceted layer, as it melted off, except in isolated pockets.

This is all the more reason to be careful, as it's distribution was variable. I guess part of my point was that in the LCC area, a significant amount of the terrain where faceted October snow exists is in bounds at Alta and Snowbird. If I'm mistaken in terms of where the faceted layer exists, it's probably because I'm 1800 miles away, and basing my statements on weather reports, temperatures and webcam views of the area.

I'll be out in Utah for the winter in a little over 2 weeks, so I'm just trying to get a basic idea of what the snowpack is like at various aspects and at different elevations before I can dig pits myself.

While the number of incidents yesterday was scary and certainly should serve as a warning about the condition of the snowpack (Capt. Obvious here), they all happened in close proximity to one another in similar terrain.

glad master - Please inform yourself. http://utahavalanchecenter.org/advisory/slc

This is going to be problematic for sometime, especially with the forecast calling for occasional snow and Octobers left overs are going to linger. We must be vigilant and embrace this info. Faceted surface hoar is problematic until significant moisture can meld the layers together or it releases naturally - that is unlesss triggered by humans as was the case in yesterdays amounting incident reports. Be careful bud! (and all- Please)

[JTrue]

I got out yesterday and have some observations to share. I guess I dodged a bullet yesterday. Started skinning around 6:45am and skied Gunsight about 8:00am with a friend, dug a pit while waiting on my friend. Same aspect/elevation and only got the new storm snow (10") to move during an extended column test CT8Q2, although it did propagate across. I was probably a bit complacent due to the fact that I've been in Gunsight 4 times this season and thought I knew what the snow was doing in there. At the time we skied it the new snow wasn't a cohesive slab. At the top I made a good ski cut across, and sent down a sluff, just the new storm snow. With two different tests just producing a surface sluff I decided we were good to ski. Started skiing and had a sluff come down behind me, pulled off to the side and it went by, nothing unmanageable. I did notice that when a couple of these sluffs pulled out they were propagating into the rocky areas on skiers right of the chute. Not sure how we made it out without incident and two other parties triggered large slides that caused major trauma to one person. The only thing I can think is that the slope warmed up considerably by 11:30 and slid on that weak layer. Pretty sobering when I heard that Gunsight had slid.

[Dj Nebula]

We skinned up to the top of the Sugarloaf Lift yesterday. We had originally planned on Collins Gulch, but because of the advisory, which stated that slopes NW-E facing above 9500 ft were "considerable" according to the forecast. And with how many people were hitting that area, we knew there was gonna be trouble. Our descent was west facing, which was green lighted from 10,000 ft to base according to the UAC forecast on Sunday. I did not hear about the accident till I got home that afternoon. Sad day for sure, but it seems to me that the information was out there, and this most likely could have been avoided. RIP Jamie Pierre.

Here is the accident report on the UAC site: http://utahavalanchecenter.org/accid...alley_11132011

[SPREAD EAGLE]

Sounds like Jtrue answered a question from ben -

I really do want to hear more about the thought process

- Jtrue said

I guess I dodged a bullet yesterday

Me too!

'Nuff said

[skinipenem]

Vibes to JP family.

We went out sat and sun at Alta. Stayed off NW to E facing slopes 2/2 to forecaste/reported avy conditions. Played it safe and gotbsome fun low angle turns, but honestly looked up to lookers right at steeps a few times with temptation.

- the other ben.

[backcountryben]

That is interesting to hear, I'm a little surprised it changed that much between the morning and 11:30... although it could also be the luck aspect of the game at work. I skied Gunsight on Saturday when the windloading was just starting and got a very loose sluff to go on a ski cut from the top, but it only ran about 50 feet int the main chute, and was not a clean shear at all. The rest of the run was uneventful. A few hours later I was definitely seeing more touchy stuff, esp on N aspects. Given this observation on saturday afternoon and the large amount of snow Saturday night I was pretty cautious coming into Sunday before I even got to the mountain...

In other news, I was up in Grizzly Gulch this morning and dug a pit on a pretty mellow N facing slope near Twin Lakes Pass. Looked like about 15-20" of windslab over the old faceted snow. On an ECT it went at CT14Q1, very clean shear on the facets. Similar results from a compression test. The snow had definitely stiffened up a good bit from yesterday, so there's a bit more bridge strength, but it also means we're gonna see some pretty cohesive slabs and clean shears if stuff goes...

I got out yesterday and have some observations to share. I guess I dodged a bullet yesterday. Started skinning around 6:45am and skied Gunsight about 8:00am with a friend, dug a pit while waiting on my friend. Same aspect/elevation and only got the new storm snow (10") to move during an extended column test CT8Q2, although it did propagate across. I was probably a bit complacent due to the fact that I've been in Gunsight 4 times this season and thought I knew what the snow was doing in there. At the time we skied it the new snow wasn't a cohesive slab. At the top I made a good ski cut across, and sent down a sluff, just the new storm snow. With two different tests just producing a surface sluff I decided we were good to ski. Started skiing and had a sluff come down behind me, pulled off to the side and it went by, nothing unmanageable. I did notice that when a couple of these sluffs pulled out they were propagating into the rocky areas on skiers right of the chute. Not sure how we made it out without incident and two other parties triggered large slides that caused major trauma to one person. The only thing I can think is that the slope warmed up considerably by 11:30 and slid on that weak layer. Pretty sobering when I heard that Gunsight had slid.

[leroy jenkins]

^^^Thanks for the report. Pretty much everyone who ski tours on a regular basis will encounter the white dragon at some point. Luck determines the rest.

You tour a lot more than I do, but I have to disagree. I've kicked off a couple slides myself and each time luck had nothing to do with me walking away unharmed, it had far more to do with the fact that I had a well thought out plan before hand and when I recognized the situation called for it, I put that plan into action without hesitation.

Spread eagle, glad you're ok, and I won't call you an idiot, because we are all idiots at times (and yea thats when luck plays a part) but, just hypothetically, what was the plan for going down little chute that day? There are no safe zones to turn into, the only possibly plan is ski it and hope it doesnt slide. I'm not saying that to rub salt in SE's wound, but just because it should be recognized.

backcountry ben - you are right and

My question to you then is, Did you go out yesterday? Of course you did. We all learned a little something yesterday. Only in person can we really make these decisions. I took all the precautions I new how to make then computed that info into my Pow Seeking soul then sent it! I did walk away and I am sharing my perspective with the collective. No angst or anything here just love. I have made many similar decisions and I support mine. I just don't want others thinking that they will be as lucky if they tempt the white dragon.

I was cautioned by my patroller friends, watched and learned on my way, have skied little chute dozens of times in the pre-season, and overall made the determination that I was walking away. Shit could have gone different but it didn't. I am lucky but made as many of the correct decisions I could make along the way. Today, - yesterday seems 20/20 but I do lack the visionary skill to predict the future. My bud and I were very verbal about everything that was going to happen. I even had a moment with him where we discussed "if something does happen..."

I'm curious, how did you guys end that sentence? What was your plan if little chute did slide? Try to grab on to the rocks on the sides and hang on? I really wasnt going to monday morning QB your decisions, but it really dosent sound like you did learn your lesson. Little chute was a horrible idea yesterday. There are preseason days that it isn't a bad idea, but yesterday wasn't one of them. What do you count as being the correct decisions that you made? Was there another more dangerous line that you backed down from?

"I've skied it hundreds of times" = complacency.

I applaud your bravery for posting this here, and am really not trying to give you a hard time, but even if your narrative is about developing complacency and making really bad decisions, people can learn from that, so I'm curious to hear your thought process leading up to the incident.

What is there to talk about? Was it a really bad idea, or a really really bad idea? There are some people feeling really stupid right now (if they got lucky). Lessons have been learned, there is no need for public flogging. Letting them tell their story so others can learn is what needs to happen now.

I would usually agree with you, but SE's posts on the matter dont seem to be able to be summarized by "i did something really stupid and got lucky, I won't do that again" It seems more like "I made good choices and just got unlucky, but it was so worth it for the super sick pow pow bro". We all do stupid shit sometimes. But SOMEONE should point out just how dumb this was in case anyone less knowledgeable is reading this and might get the impression.

I read the avalanche bulletin regularly, it basically confirmed what I said in my initial post, albeit in slightly less concrete terms. What I was saying is that this faceted layer from October, while common on NW-E facing slopes, is not everywhere. Plenty of areas at lower elevations or on sunnier aspects do not have this faceted layer, as it melted off, except in isolated pockets.

This is all the more reason to be careful, as it's distribution was variable. I guess part of my point was that in the LCC area, a significant amount of the terrain where faceted October snow exists is in bounds at Alta and Snowbird. If I'm mistaken in terms of where the faceted layer exists, it's probably because I'm 1800 miles away, and basing my statements on weather reports, temperatures and webcam views of the area.

I'll be out in Utah for the winter in a little over 2 weeks, so I'm just trying to get a basic idea of what the snowpack is like at various aspects and at different elevations before I can dig pits myself.

While the number of incidents yesterday was scary and certainly should serve as a warning about the condition of the snowpack (Capt. Obvious here), they all happened in close proximity to one another in similar terrain.

I havent even skied in UT yet this winter, got a bunch of great days in CO already so I wasnt jonesing hard enough to justify going out yesterday, during a storm, when there was already semi sketchy avi conditions before the storm, to ski low coverage snow and hit a bunch of rocks. I was at least going to wait till today, but it seems anywhere with enough coverage is now closed to uphill travel. Oh well, point is, the old october layer that is causing these problems seems to be pretty damn thin, and should disappear fairly quickly as long as we get considerable snowfall on top of it to compact it. It'll probably still be an issue in two weeks, but hopefully not THAT much longer, although it could. The snow we just got might turn into an even worse layer that might stick around, but thats that. At least thats my guess from what I've seen from the internet.

[SPREAD EAGLE]

Funny how demanding these quarterbacks are acting in the current huddle I invited. Did you not read Sfotex reply? As much as you want to point fingers at me, I offered to put myself out there. Please do not misinterpret that as "look at me, I am untouchable."

The whole reason why I shared my experience is because Jamie did not walk away from his incident and I did. End of story - Please learn from my adventures, do not misconstrue them as fodder for your ignorance. Any and all inquiries that you have thrown out have been answered numerous times through this post. Take a deep breath then re-read them again. Jah respect and a blessing on your future outings friend(s).

[JoshP]

This thread is a great resource. Let's not ruin it with the Qb'ing. I appreciate people putting themselves out there when they explain accidents and situations in detail, and realize it takes a lot of guts to expose ourselves to criticism (and lord knows I've gotten away with murder a few times over the years in the Wasatch).

Glad you guys that are sharing your experiences are made it out OK.

[skifishbum]

amen my brother
so hows argenta lookin will it be safe when I can ski again in late Dec.?

[JoshP]

amen my brother
so hows argenta lookin will it be safe when I can ski again in late Dec.?

If you mean that shitty "pub" at the Soli lodge, then your credit card would be not safe at all. I think the last pitcher I bought there was 18 bucks.

[Slaag Master]

this is who we are! this is what we do!

[leroy jenkins]

Funny how demanding these quarterbacks are acting in the current huddle I invited. Did you not read Sfotex reply? As much as you want to point fingers at me, I offered to put myself out there. Please do not misinterpret that as "look at me, I am untouchable."

The whole reason why I shared my experience is because Jamie did not walk away from his incident and I did. End of story - Please learn from my adventures, do not misconstrue them as fodder for your ignorance. Any and all inquiries that you have thrown out have been answered numerous times through this post. Take a deep breath then re-read them again. Jah respect and a blessing on your future outings friend(s).

I'm sorry, I thought I sugarcoated it about as mcuh as I could, but since you said ""if something does happen..." I'd like it if you can tell us what is summed up by that ellipse. Even if its "then we said fuck it skied it anyways and I got spanked" I will STFO having already wished you well saying I'm glad you are ok, because plenty of smart experienced people have made that mistake and gotten spanked doing that. Seriously though I am curious to hear what the plan was.

[Trackhead]

You tour a lot more than I do, but I have to disagree. I've kicked off a couple slides myself and each time luck had nothing to do with me walking away unharmed, it had far more to do with the fact that I had a well thought out plan before hand and when I recognized the situation called for it, I put that plan into action without hesitation.

I'm glad you feel in control when you're getting hammered by the white dragon. Personally, I don't give a shit how much common sense, self control, or snow science classes anyone takes. At some point, we all make mistakes in judgement, or mother earth just tricks us. Either way, nobody has any sort of "control" when you're getting hammered by an avalanche. You're at the mercy of mother nature, and that's it.

Snow science is tricky, and nobody bats 100% their entire life. You might think you're batting 100% because you haven't been rolled............yet. Spend enough time in the mountains, and you're bound to fuck up, or watch a close friend fuck up. It doesn't make you stupid or careless, it's just the way it is.

[skifishbum]

Snow science is tricky, and nobody is bats 100% their entire life.

pretty sure I'm a 101% in the e-world

[Trackhead]

pretty sure I'm a 101% in the e-world

Aren't we all.

[JTrue]

That is interesting to hear, I'm a little surprised it changed that much between the morning and 11:30... although it could also be the luck aspect of the game at work. I skied Gunsight on Saturday when the windloading was just starting and got a very loose sluff to go on a ski cut from the top, but it only ran about 50 feet int the main chute, and was not a clean shear at all. The rest of the run was uneventful. A few hours later I was definitely seeing more touchy stuff, esp on N aspects. Given this observation on saturday afternoon and the large amount of snow Saturday night I was pretty cautious coming into Sunday before I even got to the mountain...

Yeah, no doubt luck had something to do with it. But it is interesting that these slides released after the shots had been skied. I believe this happened as well with that eagle's nest slide. Goes to show tracks don't mean much.

[skinipenem]

We boaters have a saying...

We are always between swims.

[GnarBabe]

Thank you for expressing that Trackhead. Very important thing to recognize about playing in the mountains.

I'm glad you feel in control when you're getting hammered by the white dragon. Personally, I don't give a shit how much common sense, self control, or snow science classes anyone takes. At some point, we all make mistakes in judgement, or mother earth just tricks us. Either way, nobody has any sort of "control" when you're getting hammered by an avalanche. You're at the mercy of mother nature, and that's it.

Snow science is tricky, and nobody bats 100% their entire life. You might think you're batting 100% because you haven't been rolled............yet. Spend enough time in the mountains, and you're bound to fuck up, or watch a close friend fuck up. It doesn't make you stupid or careless, it's just the way it is.

[Meadow Skipper]

I'm glad you feel in control when you're getting hammered by the white dragon. Personally, I don't give a shit how much common sense, self control, or snow science classes anyone takes. At some point, we all make mistakes in judgement, or mother earth just tricks us. Either way, nobody has any sort of "control" when you're getting hammered by an avalanche. You're at the mercy of mother nature, and that's it.

Snow science is tricky, and nobody bats 100% their entire life. You might think you're batting 100% because you haven't been rolled............yet. Spend enough time in the mountains, and you're bound to fuck up, or watch a close friend fuck up. It doesn't make you stupid or careless, it's just the way it is.

An interesting quote from Andrew McLean in the most recent issue of Powder:

When accidents first happen, you think, oh, that was an avoidable mistake. But I think having done it for so many years, I've finally come to realize that it's a pretty dangerous activity, in general. You can be incredibly competent and you can't account for all the hazards out there.

I don't want my family to see that one.

[JKnight]

If you hang around long enough, you are going to see friends and/or people you look up to in the greater mountain community get mangled and killed in ways that you would not imagine. These lessons in loss are my governor during those moments when choices are made in the mountains.

[zion zig zag]

I'm glad you feel in control when you're getting hammered by the white dragon. Personally, I don't give a shit how much common sense, self control, or snow science classes anyone takes. At some point, we all make mistakes in judgement, or mother earth just tricks us. Either way, nobody has any sort of "control" when you're getting hammered by an avalanche. You're at the mercy of mother nature, and that's it.

Snow science is tricky, and nobody bats 100% their entire life. You might think you're batting 100% because you haven't been rolled............yet. Spend enough time in the mountains, and you're bound to fuck up, or watch a close friend fuck up. It doesn't make you stupid or careless, it's just the way it is.

I think Tremper says as much in his book. He breaks it down in a chart if I remember right, but it basically comes down to; everyday day you get out there, you are one day closer to dealing with an avalanche.