Red Sox Nation Is To Blame
Meanwhile, the Skiing Weatherman is trying to tell us something, but I'm not sure what it is... oh yeah, more snow for the west.
Weather Discussion 01/03/05
The final thought I left you with last time was the promise that I’d be taking a look at the prospects for a pattern change in the near future. For about ten days now, a trough has been anchored in the west, with a large upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast the other major player on the weather map. Let me get this on the table right away…the pattern is not going to change for at least a week. Now, while that means that the lion’s share of the snow will fall in the west, but that doesn’t mean that winter weather is out of the question in the east…au contraire, as we have a very messy, complex situation on our hands this week…anywhere from the Mason Dixon line northward.
First of all, the snow in the west…in California, the amounts have been staggering, especially in the Tahoe region. Resorts have seen anywhere from 5 to as much as ten feet of snow in the past ten days, and bases are now in the range of 7-12 FEET. It’s taken a heck of an effort for the highway crews to keep the roads passable, and the mountain crews have hand their hands full trying to battle avalanche threats, as well as grooming connector trails. Also, when it snows that hard and that fast, it’s hard to keep the ropes and chairlift tower padding ahead of the accumulation. Further inland, amounts have been more manageable, and the entire west is enjoying fine conditions right now, with the exception of Washington State, where the snow hasn’t been as plentiful…there are several resorts still waiting for opening day!!!
As I explained last week, the western trough is entrenched now, and to the east, a confluent flow between the southern ridge and the arctic branch to the north will be the focusing mechanism for a whole slew of weather problems this week. I also pointed out that timing the shorts waves that are ejected from the trough is a pain in the neck, and that has already been the case. I expected one to bring some precip to the northeast last night, which happened, and then the next one would come along Tuesday. The second one will be right no the heels of the first and bring a mixed bag to central and northern New England tonight. The wave will pass just south of New England, so the circulation of the wave will tend to cool the atmosphere to the north, so rain will mix with sleet and freezing rain, and the frozen stuff will tend toward light snow. Light is the operative word, but I expect 1 to 3 inches of snow from the southern Appalachians eastward through the Green Mountains (south of route 2) and into the Whites of New Hampshire. A bubble of high pressure will follow the wave, and this small piece of arctic air will play a vital role in the bigger ticket item that is coming along midweek. As I mentioned last time, there is plenty of arctic air over Canada, and it is being replenished by a flow over the North Pole, but with a basically west to east flow along the northern border states, it’s hard to get a big chunk to dive into the east. The bubble high will push a shot of cold air a little further south than we have seen in the past week, and then another wave from the west will come along, on a line from the Ohio Valley to the New Jersey coast. North of the path, a cold rain will fall within 50 miles or so of the boundary. Next will come a zone of sleet and freezing rain. This time, precip amounts will be more significant, so the threat of moderate to heavy icing will exist from northern Pennsylvania eastward to the northern suburbs of NYC, as well as interior southern New England. Now, a little further north, from Jamestown, New York, eastward through the Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Berkshires, and southern mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, it will be a snow event, with a solid 5 to 10 inch snowfall in the cards.
Unfortunately, south of the track, through the central Appalachians and into the resorts of the mid Atlantic, this looks like a rain producer. South of the Mason Dixon line, the southern ridge will continue to call the shots, and abnormally warm weather will continue to frustrate the snowmakers, skiers, and riders. Trail counts have taken a hit in this region, and any turnaround in that trend is at least a week away.
It is important to include the Midwest in this discussion, too, as this system will lay down snow from Denver and Amarillo northeastward to Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo. That is significant for the east because any subsequent cold air that comes from Canada will travel across snow covered ground, which will help to sustain the intensity of any cold outbreak. That cold outbreak is not on the horizon right now, but another wave on the strong thermal boundary looks like it will materialize sometime this weekend…I’ll have a look at that a little later in the week.
You can cut me off from the civilized world. You can incarcerate me with two moronic cellmates. You can torture me with your thrice daily swill, but you cannot break the spirit of a Winchester. My voice shall be heard from this wilderness, and I shall be delivered from this fetid and festering sewer.
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