In the words of eazy e, MERRY MOTHERFUCKING CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!!
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE OLYMPICS WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND MT HOOD AREA
NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
0630 AM PST TUE DEC 21 2004
NWAC Program administered by:
USDA-Forest Service
with cooperative funding and support from:
Washington State Department of Transportation
National Weather Service
National Park Service
Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission
Pacific Northwest Ski Area Association
Friends of the Avalanche Center
and other private organizations.
This forecast is prepared primarily for federal, state and
private snow safety programs in Washington and Northern Oregon.
WAZ012-017-018-019-025-042-ORZ011-221700-
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WEATHER SYNOPSIS
With the exception of a few warm, wet weather events, atypically
warm and relatively dry weather occupied most of the past fall.
Now on this first real day of winter, Northwest weather continues
to be dominated by generally dry flow associated with a moderate
to strong ridge covering much of the eastern Gulf of Alaska.
Although a weak weather disturbance should slowly move southward
across the region Tuesday in a moderate north-northwesterly upper
flow, relatively light snowfall is expected in most areas along
with brief and slight warming later Tuesday morning. Following
this weak weather system, the strong offshore ridge should
rebuild about 600 miles offshore late Tuesday, and slowly move
eastward while becoming more positively tilted and leaning
eastward Wednesday and Thursday. An associated initially dry,
cooler northerly flow on Wednesday should gradually warm at mid
and upper elevations Thursday into early Friday as the ridge axis
moves over south-central BC Thursday and into southern BC and
northern Washington by early Friday. Finally by mid-late Friday,
a moderate to strong upper trough is expected to flatten and
displace the ridge in the eastern Pacific, with a moderate
frontal system expected to approach the coast later Friday and
move over the region Christmas eve and Christmas Day. This should
spread increasing clouds southward mid-late on the 24th with
light rain or snow developing in the northern Washington Cascades
and Olympics late Friday. Increasing winds and moderate to
briefly heavy rain or snow are likely on Saturday at
substantially lowering freezing levels as a moderate cold front
swings across the area. Initially weak cool easterly flow at the
surface should result in some local freezing rain near the
Cascade passes late Friday and Christmas Eve, but a switch to
increasing westerly flow at all levels and rapid cooling
Christmas Day should produce a rapid transition to mostly snow
above 3 to 4000 feet by mid-day and above 2000 feet or lower
Christmas afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow showers should
gradually decrease later on Saturday into early Sunday along with
further cooling and slowly diminishing winds as the associated
upper trough slightly splits offshore, moves over the region late
Saturday through early Sunday and exits to the east mid-late
Sunday.
In the longer range, the familiar offshore ridge should rebuild
briefly later Sunday and Monday with an associated drier north to
northwesterly flow producing a general drying trend early next
week. However, the ridge’s stay is expected to be relatively
short, with extended forecast models indicating a strong weather
disturbance and upper trough likely moving across the region
later Tuesday and Wednesday. If correct, this should bring strong
winds and moderate to heavy snowfall to most areas at low and
lowering freezing levels.
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