10 million B.C. skier visits by 2015

[Schmear]

Not exactly a new issue to this board, I know, but this article lays it out pretty well...

Excerpt: "British Columbia's ski resorts have experienced threefold growth since 1980, to 6.2 million skier visits a year, said Jimmie Spencer, president and chief executive officer of Canada West Ski Areas Association, which includes 60 ski areas in the province. (In comparison, Colorado had 11.2 million skier visits in the 2002-3 season.) That number is expected to hit 10 million by 2015, Mr. Spencer said."


An Overcrowded Playground in British Columbia's Future?
By CHRISTOPHER SOLOMON

FOR some time, British Columbia has been considered a backcountry paradise for vacationers who get their thrills atop a pair of skis, in hiking boots or on a mountain bike. But now, with the enthusiastic backing of the local government, a startling growth spurt of new ski areas, resort expansions, lodges and other tourism-related development is taking place, and some people worry the changes will turn British Columbia into an overcrowded playground.

There is no doubt that the pace of change has been breathtaking:

• Revelstoke Mountain Resort is expected to open within two years in southeast British Columbia with long-term plans for 25 ski lifts and a resort village with 16,000 beds.

• Twenty-three Sno-Cat-skiing companies may now guide skiers to backcountry ridgelines, a 50 percent increase since the Liberal Party took office in 2001, according to Land and Water British Columbia, the government corporation charged with promoting development through commercial use of public lands and waters. The number of heli-skiing companies also has increased by nearly one-third, to more than 30.

• In 2003 the government approved the Canoe Mountain resort project southwest of Jasper National Park. The all-season resort, which is expected to cost $84 million, at 1.22 Canadian dollars to the United States dollar, will have a gondola for summer sightseeing and skiing, golf courses and homes. It is expected to open in 2007.

• In October, after nearly 14 years of study and rancor, the government gave environmental approval for the $376 million Jumbo Glacier Resort, which could appear in the Purcell Mountains by the end of 2007. The resort will offer the most summer glacier-skiing on the continent.

Including the Jumbo and Revelstoke projects, Land and Water British Columbia expects to sign six more agreements over the next 12 to 15 months, according to Bill Irwin, director of the all-seasons resort program for the agency, who added that "each one of those projects will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars."

Another $860 million in development is expected over the next five years at existing ski resorts, Mr. Irwin said. That is in addition to the development spurred by the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

Premier Gordon Campbell, has asked the tourism industry to double its revenues by 2015. The goal is to reduce the provincial economy's reliance on the unstable crutches of logging and mining. Though tourism brings in nearly $22 million a day and is the province's largest employer, forestry and oil and gas exploration still account for most of the province's gross product.

British Columbia's ski resorts have experienced threefold growth since 1980, to 6.2 million skier visits a year, said Jimmie Spencer, president and chief executive officer of Canada West Ski Areas Association, which includes 60 ski areas in the province. (In comparison, Colorado had 11.2 million skier visits in the 2002-3 season.) That number is expected to hit 10 million by 2015, Mr. Spencer said.

British Columbia's land area is greater than that of California, Washington State and Oregon combined, but since 94 percent of the province is public land, almost every river-rafting entrepreneur, fishing guide and tour operator must gain government approval to operate. The system that the Liberal Party inherited when it took office was widely agreed to be too slow. "We had people who were waiting for anywhere from six months to six years to be processed," said John Willow, director for tourism in Land and Water British Columbia's strategic initiatives division.

Today the buzzword among political officials is "streamlining." Premier Campbell's Liberal Party, more business-friendly than the rival New Democratic party , now is processing 90 percent of applications within 140 days. In September he doubled the annual budget of the government's tourism arm.

"The natural resource is there," said Mary Mahon Jones, chief executive officer of the Council of Tourism Associations of British Columbia. "Our challenge is now to take the resource and develop it to the extent that we can."

Some environmentalists and tourism operators worry that this fevered pursuit of tourist dollars will damage the very scenery, wildlife and solitude that lure vacationers.

The number of new recreation permits issued by the government has increased 127 percent over the last five fiscal years. There are now 743 permits issued to companies to use public lands, according to Mr. Willow of Land and Water British Columbia.

"They've essentially thrown open the floodgates," said Paul Leeson, a director of the BC Wilderness Tourism Association and the owner and manager of Fortress Lake Wilderness Cabins and Purcell Lodge, two wilderness retreats that are usually reached by helicopter. Existing lodges have suffered from the influx, Mr. Leeson said, in large part because the pool of customers who want a vigorous hiking or backcountry skiing vacation is not huge. About three dozen lodges now pepper the backcountry, double the number a decade ago, according to Brad Harrison, vice president of the Backcountry Lodges of British Columbia Association.

Page 2 (requires registration): http://travel2.nytimes.com/2004/12/19/travel/19bc.html

[Superstar Punani]

A skier from 10-million BC will visit by 2015?

[Schmear]

Something like that.

[Benny Profane]

More snowcat skiing in the world is not a bad thing.

[Snow Dog]

"Overcrowded BC wilderness" is an oxymoron. BC is vast and the people are few. For most tourists places like Manning park are as wild a wilderness experience as they want. Tourists aren't equiped for and don't want the real deal. So there will be pockets of develpment in a vast wilderness. The article touched on the limited number of customers for heli/cat/resort operations and that will, ultimately, limit the number and size of these operations. So I don't think there'll be any overcrowding in the near future.

[two_planks]

God knows BC could use the money right now. If the weakening/ strengthening of the US/ Candadian dollar continues and holds on though, will American skiers continue to come to BC?

[Eldo]

A skier from 10-million BC will visit by 2015?

The Raq?



Wait, that was ONE million BC, not 10 million.

(Can't believe that movie is almost 40 years old.)

[snowave]

Thats a good question if Americans would keep coming..Maybe not as much would be my answer.

[Big E]

6 new ski areas!!?? Hard to believe the current number of skiers could support that kind of development. And, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but Revelstoke and the Purcells aren't exactly like getting to SLC or even Whistler. You've got to put in some effort to get there.

[Rusty Nails]

First of all, the Canadian and USD will likely be moving sideways with each other from here on out. The USD was overvalued against the CND a few years ago. USD at 1.2 to 1.3 CND is a solid value and enough of a discount to most americans. The strong Euro will continue to send some of those travelers over to NA and they will continue to choose BC to the US. Also, affordable resort developments coinciding with baby-boomer retirement $$$ offers vacation property investment that will certainly happen -- BC would attract much more foriegn (US) investment if they got rid of GST on real property purchases -- they'd still make dough on capital gains, but the prospect of up front GST or deferring it by creating a Canadian paper corporation is just plain silly, bad business, and will scare off many mom and pop investors out there. Plus, the GST wipes out a good chunk of the discount for property investors and will continue to discourage foreign investment in BC.

Second -- I wonder how some of these places will ski??? I'd love to hear first hand testimonials about Jumbo Glacier. High winds? Snowfall? Operability concerns? Terrain?

The big loser from this might just be W-B. People choosing Canada used to only have a few choices. Now, places like Fernie have expanded and other resorts opening up might take several visitors away from W-B for cheaper skiing options.

Anyway, I'm all about more choices to ski in NA and it will be interesting to see how all of it comes together.

[The AD]

First of all, the Canadian and USD will likely be moving sideways with each other from here on out. The USD was overvalued against the CND a few years ago. USD at 1.2 to 1.3 CND is a solid value and enough of a discount to most americans. The strong Euro will continue to send some of those travelers over to NA and they will continue to choose BC to the US. Also, affordable resort developments coinciding with baby-boomer retirement $$$ offers vacation property investment that will certainly happen -- BC would attract much more foriegn (US) investment if they got rid of GST on real property purchases -- they'd still make dough on capital gains, but the prospect of up front GST or deferring it by creating a Canadian paper corporation is just plain silly, bad business, and will scare off many mom and pop investors out there. Plus, the GST wipes out a good chunk of the discount for property investors and will continue to discourage foreign investment in BC.

OK, that settles it. I'm moving my 401k over to Rusty Nails Financial Services, Inc.

[Rusty Nails]

Too bad I started adult working life almost 100k in the red. Now, however, all student and other consumer/car debts are paid, some venture capital is accumulated, and I can finally use my research for financial advantage instead of just looking around... Nice to see my modest portfolio is up 4% today.

[JR]

I guess it is all a matter of perspective.

Here is what the Canadian Ski Guide Association has to say about that in their June newsletter.

Norman D. Crerar, AHB
I have been in the ski business for the past 40 plus years. In that time, I think I have
experienced almost everything there has been to experience and have the t-shirts to
prove it. I have been involved with ski areas when they went through good times and I
have been involved with ski areas when they went through bad times. It is great to
remember the good and have a smile but remembering the bad should be an alert to
not make the same mistakes again.
Shortly after I left two of the ski areas I worked at, they went into serious financial
difficulty and were purchased by their nearest rival. The losers made the classic
mistakes of not being aware of changes in the marketplace and by being financially
overleveraged.
I was present at the BCHSSOA spring meeting. I am not an operator nor involved
with any Heli or Snowcat operation. I was, however, alarmed at some of the things I
saw and heard and some things I didn’t hear. The classic signs are out there!
At the time of the meeting, there were 28 registered Heli and Snowcat members of the
BCHSSOA and 11 probationary members. Besides these 39 operations, there was talk
that there are some 6-8 applications for new operations before the government
agencies. Alarm bells should be ringing somewhere.
There has been little to no growth in the alpine ski and snowboard business and in
some markets, there has been negative growth. In Banff and Whistler this past season,
business was down 25% and 30% respectively. The local and regional skiers were
there but the high-end destination market was not. The destination skiers are the
bread and butter of the Heli and Snowcat business.
Talk about a classic situation! We have a down turn in the number of skiers/boarders
and an upturn in the number of operations competing for them. The operators start
“eating each other’s lunch”. Everyone has accommodation, food & beverage, snow
and uphill transportation. They can’t make cuts here so the quick and easy thing to do
is start cutting prices to compete. With less income cuts have to be made somewhere
and the first cuts and deepest cuts are made to personnel and salaries. With fewer staff
and lower paid staff, the writing is on the wall. Service suffers, guests are unhappy,
risk of incidents rise, business drops off, income suffers, more cuts have to be made---
and we have seen it all before.
My advice to the members of the BCHSSOA would be to spend some quality time on
figuring out how to increase the market for their products. Forget about old battles
that will never be won and deal with the here and now. Pay attention to a basic
business principle—if you are NOT successful at what you are doing, you had better
make changes. If you ARE successful at what you are doing, you had better make
changes!

[Snow Dog]

BC would attract much more foriegn (US) investment if they got rid of GST on real property purchases -- they'd still make dough on capital gains, but the prospect of up front GST or deferring it by creating a Canadian paper corporation is just plain silly, bad business, and will scare off many mom and pop investors out there. Plus, the GST wipes out a good chunk of the discount for property investors and will continue to discourage foreign investment in BC.

There's GST on new houses or lots but not not on resale houses or lots (so it's once over the life of the house). In BC there's also a property transfer tax (1% on the first $100,000 and 2% after that). Those taxes are rolled into the initial capital cost and lower your capital gains in the future sale. Nobody even thinks about the GST cost up here -- it's just rolled into the new house price.

The best part is, if I sell you (you American, you) a new house and you tell the Canadian Government to stick it, I'm on the hook for the GST.

[Rusty Nails]

There's GST on new houses or lots but not not on resale houses or lots (so it's once over the life of the house). In BC there's also a property transfer tax (1% on the first $100,000 and 2% after that). Those taxes are rolled into the initial capital cost and lower your capital gains in the future sale. Nobody even thinks about the GST cost up here -- it's just rolled into the new house price.

The best part is, if I sell you (you American, you) a new house and you tell the Canadian Government to stick it, I'm on the hook for the GST.

Downside is, Americans must pay GST whether the property is new or not if it is a resort/rental property. We get screwed no matter what. That is what scares foreign investors off -- they are not buying a primary residence, so they have to pay GST. Secondly, I thought Canadian law required a 33% with-holding from Canadians selling to American buyers to ensure the GST gets paid (upon research they are worried about income/capital gains tax, not GST). Gotta do more research here. Oh, and that property transfer tax sucks too.

[Snow Dog]

Downside is, Americans must pay GST whether the property is new or not if it is a resort/rental property. We get screwed no matter what. That is what scares foreign investors off -- they are not buying a primary residence, so they have to pay GST. Secondly, I thought Canadian law required a 33% with-holding from Canadians selling to American buyers to ensure the GST gets paid (upon research they are worried about income/capital gains tax, not GST). Gotta do more research here. Oh, and that property transfer tax sucks too.

That just sounds hinky. There's this bit on witholding a portion of the sale price "on behalf of the non-resident owner" but I don't understand why a non-resident would pay GST when a resident doesn't. I know a bit about GST since I do a GST return every year if you have questions on how the whole thing works.

If you want to buy some Canadian real estate you can put my name on it if you like.