Asulkan in April?? Looking for insights, observations

[newguy]

I have a trip planned to Asulkan Pass (Revy) next week and am looking for some comfort or discomfort vibes to inform my thinking about avy hazard.
Here's what I know. CAA's rates snow stability for Glacier Park as considerable but with many ominous comments by the forecaster about the two Persistent Weak Layers. He talks about a lower probability of releases but with big consequences. Low angle releases a meter down have been reported for the last month.
I have a high degree of confidence in my route selection ability and I've skied lots of steep shit in my life, so my need to ski aggessive lines is well in hand. I'm there for the trip, the walk, the company, as much as for the skiing, but I'm sitting on the fence as to whether even walking around out there is worth it this time around. Asulkan px I've seen says "huge" terrain features to me, but i haven't been there myself.
Any thoughts? Much appreciated.

[jamesp]

There are good & bad weather options both above & below the hut. The 'mousetrap' leaves you exposed for not-too-long on the way up, & you do pass under a couple other big paths on the way up also (Ravens, lookers left of the mousetrap slid last week). Lots of treed terrain to ski on a variety of aspects. Definitely still go.

[homemadesalsa]

One good tour might be to go up to Sapphire Col, ski the upper section of Loop Brook, and back down Sapphire or the Dome back to Asulkan Hut. If you have good visibility then you can avoid the biggest avy paths.

[CookieMonster]

A minor, but important, correction from the first post in this thread.

The forecast rates avalanche danger as "considerable". For obvious reasons, the bulletin does not include a stability rating, but we can speculate: does "considerable" avalanche danger correspond to 'generally good', 'generally fair', or 'generally poor' stability?

The main thing to take away from a "considerable" forecast is that it often represents high uncertainty in the mind of the forecaster. Rather than trying to decide "go" or "don't go", remember that high uncertainty in big terrain calls for professional-level trip planning, professional-level evaluation of instability, and generally conservative decisions. Are you willing to plan carefully and proactively manage the uncertainty?

For example, have you read the past 30 bulletins to get an idea of the recent snowpack history? They're quite revealing.

( HomeMadeSalsa makes a great suggestion. )

[newguy]

thanks for the route suggestion HomeMadeSalsa, and yes, will be conservative in big terrain.

[Wiilbert]

There are loads of options up there, I'd definitely say go. As mentioned, the mousetrap is your only real worry getting there. I'd make sure you're through it well before noon.

There are a ton of mellow options above and below the hut, the 7 Steps run is fairly flat apart from the 6th step (Youngs Peak headwall). Walking out to Asulkan Pass offers great views and there are options for steeper stuff in the area if you feel so inclined. Have fun, post a TR when you get back.