St. Helens update

[tonghands]

Starting to get a little nervous...

-----------------------------------

Officials raise warning level at Mount St. Helens
9/29/2004, 1:11 p.m. PT
By GENE JOHNSON
The Associated Press

SEATTLE (AP) — Mount St. Helens began rumbling more intensely Wednesday, prompting scientists to raise the eruption warning level and suggest that ash and rock from a blast could land up to 3 miles from the volcano's crater.

Earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2 to 2.5 were coming about four times a minute, possibly weakening the lava dome in the crater of the 8,364-foot mountain, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

Scientists did not expect anything like the mountain's devastating eruption in 1980, which killed 57 people and coated towns 250 miles away with ash. But a small or moderate blast could come in the next few days, they said.

"We're in a position right now where we could have a small event to a moderate event happening without any warning," USGS seismologist Cynthia Gardner said.

They raised the mountain's eruption advisory from Level 2 to Level 3 out of a possible 4, which means the USGS began notifying more state and federal agencies of a possible eruption. The USGS asked the National Weather Service to be ready to track an ash plume using its radar system.

In addition, scientists called off a plan to have two researchers from the Geological Survey's Menlo Park, Calif., office study water rushing from the crater's north face for signs of magma.

A plane still flew over the crater Wednesday to collect gas samples, however.

"An aircraft can move the hell out of the way fast," said Jeff Wynn, the chief scientist at the survey's Cascade Volcano Observatory. "We don't want anyone in there on foot."

The closest structure to the volcano is the Johnson Ridge Observatory, about 5 miles from the crater.

Scientists have been monitoring St. Helens closely since last Thursday, when swarms of tiny earthquakes were first recorded at the southwest Washington mountain, and on Sunday they issued a notice of volcanic unrest, closing the crater and upper flanks of the volcano to hikers and climbers. Few people live near the mountain, which is surrounded by a national monument and a national forest.

The scientists said Wednesday they believe the seismic activity is being caused by pressure from a reservoir of molten rock a little more than a mile below the crater. That magma apparently rose from a depth of about 6 miles in 1998, but never reached the surface, Wynn said.

Since last week, scientists have also observed a slight northward movement — about an inch and a half — of the 925-foot-tall dome of hardened lava that grew inside the crater from 1980-86.

The mountain's eruption on May 18, 1980, blasted away its top 1,300 feet, spawned mudflows that choked the Columbia River shipping channel, leveled hundreds of square miles of forests and paralyzed towns and cities more than 250 miles to the east with volcanic ash.

[The AD]

Here's a link to the volcano cam:
http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocam...volcanocam.jpg

Looking a little cloudy right now...unless she's already blown her top!

[Oarhead]

So is she at the bait shack right now and looking over the edge or wandering along the middle of the pier eating an ice cream cone but still heading toward the bait shack?

[The AD]

So is she at the bait shack right now and looking over the edge or wandering along the middle of the pier eating an ice cream cone but still heading toward the bait shack?

I think she went back to the parking lot, got in her car and floored it over the curb. Now she's heading straight down the pier, people diving to get out of her way, with every indication she's going to bust right through the rail at the end and splash into the ocean.

Or a similar masturbation analogy...

[Game Over]

There is a fair amount of ice in the crater..I wonder if it is enuf to be a concern?

[Mountain Freak]

Lets all take a guess when She'll blow her load. I say this Saturday October 2nd. Now what are your guesses?

[72Twenty]

My lava lamp has been acting up too. Hmmm..........

edit: as long as Yellowstone doesn't get any bright ideas.....

[13]

shoot guess:

I think she's just gonna fart a lot of gas and be done with it, and this will happen in the spring.

[Ubersheist]

I think she went back to the parking lot, got in her car and floored it over the curb. Now she's heading straight down the pier, people diving to get out of her way, with every indication she's going to bust right through the rail at the end and splash into the ocean.

Or a similar masturbation analogy...

Well... since you're calling the inanimate object a "she" instead of a "he," she's prolly just lit a few candles and incense and made sure her roomate is out of the house, but hasn't yet checked the batteries on her little friend or hasn't yet dimmed the lights.

[Lane Meyer]

Here's the latest seismicity, in map view:
http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/MSHFIGS/mapfile.gif

The helicorder readouts are clipping (see image below), and the frequency is getting darn near to what I would call volcanic tremor when degassing and eruption is imminent. I would say 12-48 hours and she will go (if not less).

http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/GREEN...2004092912.gif
This story was uploaded about half an hour ago (2:41 PST). Side note - Jeff Wynn is a kick-ass guy. Flew around Kilauea in a heli this winter with him. Love his quote in this story.

Seattle P-I Story
SEATTLE -- Mount St. Helens began rumbling more intensely Wednesday, prompting scientists to raise the eruption warning level and suggest that ash and rock from a blast could land up to 3 miles from the volcano's crater.

Earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2 to 2.5 were coming about four times a minute, possibly weakening the lava dome in the crater of the 8,364-foot mountain, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

Scientists did not expect anything like the mountain's devastating eruption in 1980, which killed 57 people and coated towns 250 miles away with ash. But a small or moderate blast could come in the next few days, they said.

"We're in a position right now where we could have a small event to a moderate event happening without any warning," USGS seismologist Cynthia Gardner said.

They raised the mountain's eruption advisory from Level 2 to Level 3 out of a possible 4, which means the USGS began notifying more state and federal agencies of a possible eruption. The USGS asked the National Weather Service to be ready to track an ash plume using its radar system.



In addition, scientists called off a plan to have two researchers from the Geological Survey's Menlo Park, Calif., office study water rushing from the crater's north face for signs of magma.

A plane still flew over the crater Wednesday to collect gas samples, however.

"An aircraft can move the hell out of the way fast," said Jeff Wynn, the chief scientist at the survey's Cascade Volcano Observatory. "We don't want anyone in there on foot."

The closest structure to the volcano is the Johnston Ridge Observatory, about 5 miles from the crater.

Scientists have been monitoring St. Helens closely since last Thursday, when swarms of tiny earthquakes were first recorded at the southwest Washington mountain, and on Sunday they issued a notice of volcanic unrest, closing the crater and upper flanks of the volcano to hikers and climbers. Few people live near the mountain, which is surrounded by a national monument and a national forest.

The scientists said Wednesday they believe the seismic activity is being caused by pressure from a reservoir of molten rock a little more than a mile below the crater. That magma apparently rose from a depth of about 6 miles in 1998, but never reached the surface, Wynn said.

Since last week, scientists have also observed a slight northward movement - about an inch and a half - of the 925-foot-tall dome of hardened lava that grew inside the crater from 1980-86.

The mountain's eruption on May 18, 1980, blasted away its top 1,300 feet, spawned mudflows that choked the Columbia River shipping channel, leveled hundreds of square miles of forests and paralyzed towns and cities more than 250 miles to the east with volcanic ash.

---

[slippy]

Here's the latest seismicity, in map view:
http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/GREEN...2004092912.gif

Is that one of those posters that if you squint real hard you'll see a volcano erupting? Looks like jibberish to me.

[Telenater]

Well... since you're calling the inanimate object a "she" instead of a "he," she's prolly just lit a few candles and incense and made sure her roomate is out of the house, but hasn't yet checked the batteries on her little friend or hasn't yet dimmed the lights.

But, is she a screamer or a moaner?

[Lane Meyer]

Is that one of those posters that if you squint real hard you'll see a volcano erupting? Looks like jibberish to me.

Of course. Scientists routinely bury pictures of your naked sister in their instrucment readouts.

It's a sesimic readout from a sesimometer in the lava dome in St. Helens. Each color represents 15 minutes, the differnt colors are to tell them apart from one another. The time starts at the top, and the signal progresses to the right, like reading text across a page. Black line turns into red, (down one) to blue (down one) to green, etc. Each package of 4 lines is one hour. It looks like gibberish because there are ~ four earthquakes per MINUTE, which is essentially volcanic tremor as the dome is preparing to fragment when the eruption begins. The signals have clipped tops because of the amplitude range of the signal, they have the gain up high because these are small (<M 3.0) events.

Basically the picture can be visualized like an about to boili over teakettle's lid shaking constantly as pressure builds....rocks are fragmenting (earthquakes) and as soon as the overburden pressure is less than that coming from the depressurizing, rising magma, boom!

[Ubersheist]

But, is she a screamer or a moaner?

I dunno. I'm not a volcanologist.

Ask Lane Meyer. Even though he's not working currently as a volcanologist, his expertise is far greater then mine.

From most of what I read, it sounds like it will be the type where it's pretty lame to average for her, but she'd still roll over and tell you it was great so she doesn't bruise your ego too much.

[Ubersheist]

Hey Lane - if this one does blow in the next few days, it would have come on awefully fast, eh? The first St. Helens episode took something like 3 or 4 months, right? Pinatubo took a few months.

Now, where's that interferometry detector when you need one?

[Lane Meyer]

I dunno. I'm not a volcanologist.

Ask Lane Meyer. Even though he's not working currently as a volcanologist, his expertise is far greater then mine.

From most of what I read, it sounds like it will be the type where it's pretty lame to average for her, but she'd still roll over and tell you it was great so she doesn't bruise your ego too much.

Uber - from what I've read, here, you got the tools....
I'm not a volcanologist (at the moment anyway), I just played one in this month's National Geographic Traveler magazine...but my expertise is in GIS and striking out with hot chicks in Tahoe bars...oh yeah, and snowlerblading.

Yes, the onset was fast, but you have to keep in mind the 5/18/80 eruption was the first activity in thousands of years. The time elapsed since then (what, like 24 years if I can add right) is NOTHING in geologic time, so one looking at the eruptive record say 10,000 years from now would barely be able to distinguish any passage of time between 1980 and now. Basically what I'm trying to say is that there was no long lead-in this time because the volcano has been active the whole time, geologically speaking. All it took was some small depressurization or small ascent of a tiny amount (<0.5 km3) of magma. Like a new zit forming on your face..just one extra Double-Double and off she goes...

The interferometry would have failed for the whole mountain (I think) because this activity is a small body of magma rising immediately underneath and within the cryptodome in the summit crater, which is a quite small area. I dunno, maybe there could have been some measureable bulge over a larger area, but thanks to W, the USGS doesn't have the $ or personell to go fly their own instruments anymore....

[slippy]

Of course. Scientists routinely bury pictures of your naked sister in their instrucment readouts.

It's a sesimic readout from a sesimometer in the lava dome in St. Helens. Each color represents 15 minutes, the differnt colors are to tell them apart from one another. The time starts at the top, and the signal progresses to the right, like reading text across a page. Black line turns into red, (down one) to blue (down one) to green, etc. Each package of 4 lines is one hour. It looks like gibberish because there are ~ four earthquakes per MINUTE, which is essentially volcanic tremor as the dome is preparing to fragment when the eruption begins. The signals have clipped tops because of the amplitude range of the signal, they have the gain up high because these are small (<M 3.0) events.

Basically the picture can be visualized like an about to boili over teakettle's lid shaking constantly as pressure builds....rocks are fragmenting (earthquakes) and as soon as the overburden pressure is less than that coming from the depressurizing, rising magma, boom!

What I learned from the above post: never joke with a rock nerd.

Ha, just kidding.

[Ubersheist]

Actually, I have NO idea what a interferometer or what have you does or detects. It sounds like elevation changes... I happened to look at the calendar hanging in my cubicle, which has pictures of volcanoes on it. The caption for October reads "In 2001, satelite radar interferometry detected uplift of approximately 10 cm west of the 3157m high volcano [South Sister in Oregon], possibly signalling future volcanic unrest in the region." That's the first and only time I've ever heard of the word "interferometry." I work with landslides and faults mostly. Volcanoes are pretty much out of my realm.

[Ubersheist]

What I learned from the above post: never joke with a rock nerd.

Ha, just kidding.

HEY - NEVER call us "rock nerds." That's "Rock Geek" to you, pal

[Ski Monkey]

Of course. Scientists routinely bury pictures of your naked sister in their instrucment readouts.

Heh. That's funny.

My prediction, Friday morning....9am ish. Don't be late.

[optics]

Tuesday, 1pm.

[Schmear]

Yes, the onset was fast, but you have to keep in mind the 5/18/80 eruption was the first activity in thousands of years.

Not to be petty, but there have been a series of minor eruptions over the last 500 years or so.

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/mshnvm/edu...-summary.shtml

[Lane Meyer]

Not to be petty, but there have been a series of minor eruptions over the last 500 years or so.

http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/mshnvm/edu...-summary.shtml

Wow, people Do read what we write....nice catch, Schmear. What, do ytou run an online journal or something?

I should have clarified - I was referring to "A dormant period of more than 6,000 years2 (10,500 - 4,000 years ago)" and meant LARGE scale, mountainside-removing, catastrophic activity

[Schmear]

D'oh! You quoted my grammar error before I could fix it!

Anyway, I was fortunate to experience the 1980 eruption first-hand, so since then I've become a bit of a St. Helens nut.

[LAN]

I wish the thing would blow up already! I had a dream last night that it did, and I was pissed when I got up this morning and it hadn't.

Do you think there's any way we can change the location of the presidential debate to be IN the dome?