Eff it, I'm going to the beach

[Lee Murian]

Since that bitch la nina has been jacking up the NorCal winter and we have barely enough snow to tour on, I thought about getting to the coast to check the surf. Anyone have any recent beta? Humboldt is the closest break for me, any word?

[Ottime]

Something like this, from Stormsurf.com

abbreviated centered on SF: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forec...cast/ncal.html

current condition centered on SF: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ncalrprt.shtml

I know Humbolt is pretty far from here, but often has similiar conditions. The bouy reports on the second link are pretty good. You can even get spectral readings to pin point swell.

Otherwise I am out of the water tending a gimpness another month. Good luck.

Models Suggest Building Gale Pattern
Flatness Till Then

OVERVIEW
On Thursday (1/29) North and Central California had surf in the waist to maybe chest high range on the biggest sets and pretty weak and shifty, mostly just local windswell. Local conditions were good though with offshore winds. Southern California was getting thigh high wrap around northerly windswell at select breaks and mostly unrideable. At least the wind was offshore.

For Central California more of the same is forecast for the next 3 days, basically just windswell but with a little more size by Sunday but also more local north winds too. Certainly nothing to get excited about.

Longer term the models continue to dish out images of hope, though none of that is even close to being realized just yet. First up is a small gale forecast forming in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska late Friday (1/30) with the core nearly inland over Alaska generating 35 kt west winds and up to 25 ft seas targeting Central Canada, with sideband energy pushing south down the 319 degree path to exposed breaks in Central CA with luck. Another better positioned gale is forecast forming over the northern dateline region on Sat (1/31) generating up to 40 kt winds and 28 ft seas tracking southeast and decaying to the 25 ft range late Monday as it falls south of any great circle paths to the South and Central CA coasts, likely providing hope for sizable utility class raw swell for the state if this comes to pass. And finally a broad gale remains forecast building off Northern Japan Saturday (1/31) pushing northeast and peaking quickly with up to 50-55 kt winds and 45 ft seas pushing east towards Hawaii and the US West Coast, but breaking up as it hit's the dateline by Wednesday. In all 2 good possibilities for swell are indicated for the Islands and California, with the Pacific Northwest benefiting best from the first of the series.



SHORT- TERM

North Pac

On Thursday (1/29) the North Pacific jetstream had a weak and fragmented (but not split) flow easing off Japan pushing east over the dateline to a point north of Hawaii, then split with the northern branch ridging hard north into Alaska the southern branch headed southeast over Hawaii then turning east on into Baja. The weakest imaginable trough was trying to organize over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska bound for Canada. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (2/1) the Gulf trough is to push east and dissipate before moving into Canada early Saturday offering minimal support for gale development there. Meanwhile a new broad trough is to form on the dateline Saturday following the same route through the Gulf on Monday (2/2) but with up to 160 kt winds feeding into it from the west affording a better chance for surface level gale development. This trough is to get too steep and pinched of by late Monday, ending it's productivity. Beyond 72 hrs yet another trough is forecast forming off Kamchatka Sunday (2/1) pushing east and expanding it's area of influence early next week but with only 130 kt winds flowing through it. Some support for gale development possible. The split flow is to continue in the east supporting high pressure down at the surface, but the split point is to steadily push east moving to within 600 nmiles of Central/South CA then onshore by Thursday (2/5) as a big trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest coast, possibly offering up a wetter pattern for a while down into California.

At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs was situated just off Oregon and ridging into the coast there forming the usual summer-like pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino with 25 kt north winds there and generating weak short period windswell pushing south into exposed breaks in Central CA. A second high at 1028 mbs was almost north of Hawaii. And yet a third at 1032 mbs was just east of Japan. in short, the North Pacific was locked down in high pressure. Over the next 72 hours a new weak gale is forecast to build in the Northern Gulf on Friday (1/30) with up to 35 kt west winds pushing seas to 25 ft at 52N 142W (319 degree relative to Central CA) late with limited odds for 13 sec period sideband swell pushing towards the US West Coast. This gale to continue east into early Saturday with westerly winds holding at 35 kts and seas building to 26 ft at 55N 135W, increasing odds for 13-14 sec period swell for the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. The gale is to push on into North Canada by mid-Saturday (1/31). Limited odds for small north angled swell pushing south to breaks north of Pt Conception early Monday (2/2) assuming this system forms, but most focus is to be on the Pacific Northwest up into British Columbia.


CA Nearshore
On Thursday (1/29) high pressure at 1038 mbs was just off the Oregon coast easing into the Great Basin and forming a short lived pressure gradient off Cape Mendocino with north winds there to 25+ kts, though offshore winds were evidenced south of there. By Friday that high is to be inland with a new weaker high starting to build off San Francisco at 1030 mbs, perhaps turning local winds a little more to the north, but still light (10 kts at worst) while low pressure pushes into Canada. Reinforcing high pressure to join the existing high off Central CA on Saturday with pressure up to 1034 mbs and north winds building to 15 kts a bit off the coast and moving east while pushing south to Pt Conception by sunset. This high is to be ridging into Oregon on Sunday with 15 kt north winds forecast over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Fortunately that even t to be short lived with the high moving inland on Monday (2/2) and offshore east winds in control then over the entire state. But all the while low pressure is to be moving into the area, with south winds in control by Tuesday everywhere but Southern CA, and even moving there by Wednesday, Thursday into Friday as the low nudges up to the coast. Rain possible starting Thursday for the entire state, though snow levels likely to be high as this is to be a warm core system.


MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Thursday (1/29) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was fully in the a neutral state. The Daily SOI index was up to 15.69 having hovered near 0 for 21 days. The 30 day average was down to 7.42 and the 90 day average was up a tick to 11.98. La Nina was still well dug-in, with the MJO trying to make headway against it. Wind anomalies at the surface and the 850 mb level (approx 1000 ft up) indicated a completely normal wind pattern over the equatorial Pacific, suggestive that the MJO was in a neutral state. That is not unexpected. But what is more interesting is that the Inactive Phase, which was to be be building, remains non-existent on forecast projections. The Inactive Phase was to be reaching the dateline on 2/1 pushing east from there, but is nowhere to be seen. this is good news. We had expected most of February to be a write-off due to the impending Inactive Phase taking control of the North Pacific, but perhaps something else is at hand. Will continue monitoring.

[Lee Murian]

Thanks Ottime. I read about your gimp, heal up fast, you know you're not missing alot this season, although I'm holding out for a biiig Feb/Mar! If you're ever riding in the land of lemuria, let me know and I'll return the favors.

[BeanDip4All]

E and I will be slashing around trying to learn to turn this weekend at Linda Mar (we have mastered the stand up and go straight part, now it's time to turn) I'm sure everyone in this forum is too good to actually surf at Linda Mar, but if you are, lmk.

[Ottime]

E and I will be slashing around trying to learn to turn this weekend at Linda Mar (we have mastered the stand up and go straight part, now it's time to turn) I'm sure everyone in this forum is too good to actually surf at Linda Mar, but if you are, lmk.

Honestly, it is not all that different than carving on skis. Lead with your head and front arm. Pictures of me has revealed that I make a gun shape with my hands and point to where I am going - it works pretty well.

People tend to lean into thir turns too much at first and fall. The board (even a long board) is pretty sensitive, so it will tilt easily. To drive a turn you begin with your weight forward, and shift to the rear as you are in the apex of the turn.

The great thing about surfing, is that there is often plenty of water between you and other hard objects.

Stilltele'n - I hear you on the season thus far. As I've stated else where, I expect a wet and cold March and April. And the a long cool spring to follow through June..... On the other hand, the surf last week was a bit off the hook down here. Often these blocking highs give us great off shores and all we need is big dateline storms

[Bud]

been a rough ski season in the PNW, but surfing has taken the edge off....I spent more days in the water in January than I did in the mountains, and thats never happened before.

Finally gotten used to the cold and paddling with gloves on....Friday there was ice on the driftwood in Westport but it was sunny and calm in the morning and I scored a ton of rides...even managed to finally link up a couple cutbacks for the very first time and figured out that turning on a wave is just a matter of looking where you want the board to go.

Also been really stoked on the attitude (or lack thereof) of the folks out there in the winter...during the summer it seems like the crowds get folks in a bad mood but the past couple months have been great....nuthin but smiles from everyone in the water.

[Ottime]

Gloves, eh. I recomend these from H2Odyssey. I grew up surfing the winters in New England and Long Island, so I have worn my share of gloves. These are far far superior than anything else out there. The Armara palm actually grips wet fiberglass better than bare hands. Depending on your circulation, they keep you warm down to about 45F.
http://www.h2odyssey.com/surf/pages/...ages/glove.htm



As far as winter crowds go, no difference here in Santa Cruz. But I remember the angst and 'tude during the flat summers at 90th St Rockaway, NYC. But come January, there were ususally five regulars left - and we were always happy for any company.

Glad to hear the surf is doing its job up in the PNW.

Stilltele'n - you get any surf this weekend. Was pretty small down this way, but super glassy. Kind of looked nice out at the beach breaks.

[Lee Murian]

My buddy drove over Friday and reported back small but glassy conditions at South Beach. I decided to ski the shallow but good corn conditions. He texted me Sunday morning that it came up to head high and still clean. I almost drove over for the day, but took my baby girl on her first ski tour instead....It was worth it. Still jonesing hard to get in the water, maybe this week before the next storm arrives.

[Ottime]

Two gales:



Number One:

Possible moderate 15 sec period swell to be generated pushing towards the US West Coast arriving in Central CA Wednesday evening after dark. Swell theoretically at 6 ft @ 15 secs (9 ft faces) from 285 degrees but likely down from that by sunrise Thursday, and weather from this system to be in control of nearshore waters by then. Sideband energy dropping into Hawaii from this one by as early as late Monday (2/2) but most size on Tuesday at 6.6 ft @ 13 secs (8-9 ft faces) from 330 degrees.

Number Two:

This is to be a short lived but fairly strong system with it's best asset being it's size, pushing into the large category. But winds are not to exceed maybe 55 kts limiting it's ability to generate long period swell. Relative to Hawaii this system to push most energy way east of any path into HAwaii, meaning all swell to be mostly sideband energy. Still, some swell is certainly better than none at all. For California, the good news is the fetch is to be aimed right towards the state. The bad news is the storm itself is to be too far to the north to have good impact for Southern CA, and even too far north for protected breaks like Santa Cruz and select others. Significant class swell should result at the buoys, but would be only a fraction of that size hitting the beach. Will monitor.

Near Shore

On Sunday (2/1) high pressure at 1028 mbs was off the California coast ridging into Oregon then on into the Great Basin. 15 kt north winds were indicated off the CA coast, with east to northeast winds nearshore. The high is to be moving inland on Monday (2/2) with offshore east to southeast winds in control a broad local low pressure system starts moving into the area, with south winds in control by Tuesday everywhere but Southern CA, and even moving there by Wednesday. South winds to continue on Thursday into Friday as the low nudges up and into the coast. Light rain possible starting Thursday for the entire state continuing Friday, though snow levels likely to be high as this is to be a warm core system. Strong local north winds forecast over outer waters on Friday at 35+ kts as high pressure at 1036 mbs tries to build in behind the low forming a pressure gradient, but never quite moves onshore. Light north winds forecast Saturday and Sunday (2/8) while yet another low tries to builds between Hawaii and California. Rain to linger over Southern CA Saturday clearing out Sunday.

Long Term

Beyond 72 hours follow-on winds from the Dateline Storm (above) are to continue over the northern dateline region just south of the Aleutians generatinglimited 25 ft seas over a small area into Friday (2/6) aimed all to the east likely providing small 13-15 sec period background swell for the Pacific Northwest down into Central CA. But no organized systems of interest are forecast.