Skibee, great observations and thread.
I've heard a lot about 'heuristic traps', some of which are along the same lines as your notes. A quick search popped up
this page over on pistehors.
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The paper "Evidence of heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents" presented at the 2002 International Snow Science Workshop by Ian McCammon gives some interesting insights into the decisions making process in the backcountry. A heuristic is a rule that people apply when they recognize some common pattern in a complex set of data. Analysing avalanche risk a a complex judgement call involving variables such as new snowfall, predominant wind direction and speed, humidity, temperature history, slope gradient and steepness. A heuristic trap is where the backcountry skier ignores this large data set and incorrectly applies a rule of thumb.
McCammon investigated 622 accidents in the United States between 1972 and 2001 and identified four common traps:
Familiarity, Social Proof, Commitment and Scarcity. What was surprising was that experienced backcountry users were as likely to be caught by these traps as inexperienced.
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Sorry to only respond with a cut/paste, but it rings true in my little brain...
The entire paper
here.
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