Economic Figgers

[Stu Gotz]

Just thinking to myself, but if anyone has any insight for this JONG, give a shout out. This is about as non-skiing related as it gets.

Anyhoo, with a probable Fed increase looming, Treasury yields at very low levels, corporate and junk spreads at extremely confident levels and a jittery stock market, I've lost track as to whether a strong, in-line or weak employment number would be good, bad or indifferent to stock prices. I'd prefer to see a slightly stronger "than expected" number of 250,000 or so. Tomorrow could very well be a big day with lots of wild action.

(As an aside, does anyone ever stop to think just how stupid it is that this game of economic guessing affects reality, as bonds and stock prices will certainly move based on whether the number is close to the guesstimate or not? Alas, I digress.)

[mushmouth]

oil is dominating prices right now, affecting costs all over the board. I think a strong jobs number will still be a positive, but really not in a very meaningful way, or better yet: A good jobs number will be overshadowed by oil prices for awhile. A bad jobs number and still near record oil would be pretty bad especially given the low retail sales numbers we've seen (need more of us suckers out there spending our $$).
25bps are priced in the treasury markets and jobs won't be changin that. Also, Corp spreads will remain tight for sometime as the economy continues to improve and institutional money is still out there looking for any slips.
Of course I could be completely wrong.

[TRock]

Stu, I think about how silly the economic guessing game is EVERY DAY here at my desk. This summer has been particularly brutal because even good financial data has been met with negative results. This morning's paticularly poor job numbers (and revision of last month's numbers) are no different. Historically, the market is dull and flat with limited volume leading up to an election and this year is no different. Eventually, investors will realize that we have been looking at rising corporate profits and extrememly low interest rates for too long to sit on the sidelines.

Of course, I am probably wrong.

Sorry. I'm waiting for CFA results.

[mushmouth]

Originally posted by TRock
Sorry. I'm waiting for CFA results.

What level ar you waiting for?? I'm waiting for 3 and I'm not feeling too confident.

[TRock]

Mush-

Waiting on III, too. Rumor has it that results will be released on Monday. I haven't felt confident on any of the tests. I sure as hell don't want to go into that test area again. Good luck, man. Cross your fingers.

[mushmouth]

everything's crossed. good luck. Monday, eh? Not sure I like that idea...

[Stu Gotz]

Level III - wow, excellent job guys.

Just passed I this year. 34% pass rate.

Along with the results came a note stating "You fockers better start studying because we aren't making the test any easier."

[mushmouth]

Good work, Stu. But, if you've got a job right now you're far ahead of me.

[TRock]

Well done, Stu. And with a 34% pass rate no less. Jeez, this is getting ri-goddamn-diculous. Ok, let's stop the CFA chatter until Monday at least. After all it's Friday. And noon is approaching. It's almost Miller Time.

[Stu Gotz]

TRock and Mushmouth - good luck with your results.

34% pass rate is misleading because if AIMR stats are to be believed, only 27% of particpants actually bought the books and 75 hours was the average study time.

The test was much harder than I anticipated. I can only imagine II and III are like.

Once again, positive vibes to both of you.

[TRock]

Paging Mushmouth:

Are you as aggrivated as I am right now? Where are the bloody results?

[CUBUCK]

great work on the CFA guys. I'm just getting into a job in finance myself and is wondering if the cfa is a direction I want to go. Good luck with the results

[TRock]

I say jump in. Look how much fun we're having.

[mushmouth]

Hey, actually I spent the last 4 days at Saranac Lake and got back last night around 9pm...I'm more worn out / hung over than aggrvated. I really thought today would be the day though.

[TRock]

Ah, but today IS judgement day. And the verdict.....FAIL.

No dice here, fellas. Looks like I'm on the merry-go-round again next spring. Good luck, mush.

[mushmouth]

TRock, sorry to hear that.
I almost don't want to say then that i passed, but I did

[CUBUCK]

Ohh shit this looks like fun. Tough break Trock get'em next time. If you don't mind me asking what do you guys do??

[mushmouth]

I'm unemployed at the moment and it's not much fun. Before that I traded emerging market bonds for a small company, and before that I worked as both a research assistant and then a sales assistant at a bank.
I wanted to get back into research, which is why I started the CFA process, but it's a tough job market during the summer.

[TRock]

Congrats, mush! That's great news. No more pencils, no more books!

I'm a little bummed, but I'll get up off the canvas and pass this bitch next year.

Right now I'm working at a small (6 employees) investment management firm that caters to the high net worth folks and endowments. I handle all of the trading, but I also handle all of the back office and systems stuff as well. Before this I was on the MBS/ABS desk at another firm.