Latest EL Nino (Spanish for the Nino)/Southern Oscillation forecast

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 December 2008
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during November 2008, although equatorial sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) remained below-average across much of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST index values were -0.9°C in Niño-
1+2, -0.3°C in Niño 3, -0.5°C in Niño 3.4, and -0.4°C in Niño 4 (Fig. 2). The subsurface oceanic
heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became
increasingly negative as below-average temperatures at thermocline depth expanded throughout
the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).
Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds expanded and strengthened
across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the month. Also, convection remained enhanced near
Indonesia and suppressed near the International Date Line. However, in recent months
intraseasonal variability has contributed to episodic strengthening and weakening of convection
over Indonesia. Overall, the ocean-atmosphere system during November remained consistent
with ENSO-neutral conditions, but exhibited several atmospheric characteristics typical of weak
La Niña conditions.
A majority of the SST forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 index of
−0.5°C to 0.5°C) will continue into the first half of 2009. Several models, including the NOAA
Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest the development of La Niña during December 2008-
March 2009 (Fig. 5). The recent strengthening of the low-level easterlies over the equatorial
Pacific suggests the possibility of additional anomalous cooling of the SSTs. However, the
magnitude of cooling remains uncertain and it is possible the La Niña threshold will not be met
(3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to −0.5°C). Therefore, based on
current observations and recent trends, ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely
through early 2009.

[fish]

Several models, including the NOAA
Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest the development of La Niña during December 2008-
March 2009 (Fig. 5). The recent strengthening of the low-level easterlies over the equatorial
Pacific suggests the possibility of additional anomalous cooling of the SSTs. However, the
magnitude of cooling remains uncertain and it is possible the La Niña threshold will not be met
(3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to −0.5°C).

All we can do is hope

[axelkeitz]

WHAT?????

[Woolly the Mammoth]

WHAT?????

A few months ago they were saying there was an equal chance of el nino or la nina. Now its just nothing or la nina, so things are trending in the right direction. They are basically predicting that it will happen, but are hedging their bets by saying that we may not reach technical la nina status, because it has to happen for at least three months. Its kind of like we're not in a recession until it happens for two consecutive quarters, but you kinda know it when you're in it, even without the confirmation of an official recession. I think that's where we are right now. Its been a dry fall (which is often the case with a la nina), and now we're going into winter and seeing a pattern change where the weather is getting wetter.

[ono]

A few months ago they were saying there was an equal chance of el nino or la nina. Now its just nothing or la nina, so things are trending in the right direction. They are basically predicting that it will happen, but are hedging their bets by saying that we may not reach technical la nina status, because it has to happen for at least three months. Its kind of like we're not in a recession until it happens for two consecutive quarters, but you kinda know it when you're in it, even without the confirmation of an official recession. I think that's where we are right now. Its been a dry fall (which is often the case with a la nina), and now we're going into winter and seeing a pattern change where the weather is getting wetter.

well said- using something everybody can relate to these days to make a point.
"our economy is strong" quote the shoe-dodger.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CONTINUES TO BE BOTH WEAK AND INCOHERENT AND OFFERS NO SIGNIFICANT PREDICTIVE ASSISTANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 January 2009
Synopsis: Developing La Niña conditions are likely to continue into Northern Hemisphere
Spring 2009.
During December 2008, negative equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
strengthened across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest
weekly SST index values were −0.3°C in Niño-1+2, −0.9°C in Niño 3, −1.1°C in Niño 3.4, and
−0.7°C in Niño 4 (Fig. 2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures
in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also became increasingly negative as below-average
temperatures at thermocline depth strengthened in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).
Convection remained suppressed near the International Date Line, and became more persistent
near Indonesia during December. Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also
strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric
anomalies reflect the development of La Niña.
Nearly all of the recent forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region indicate a continuation of belowaverage
SSTs through the first half of 2009, with at least one-half predicting La Niña conditions
throughout the period (Fig. 5). While the magnitude of cooling remains uncertain, NOAA’s
official La Niña threshold (3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to −0.5°C) is
expected be met at least through January-March 2009. Therefore, based on current observations,
recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña conditions are likely to continue into the Northern
Hemisphere Spring 2009.
Despite the unusually late start to this La Niña, expected impacts during January-March
2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts
include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average
precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other
potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and aboveaverage
temperatures across much of the southern United States.

[fish]

nice

1234

[OSECS]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 January 2009
Synopsis: Developing La Niña conditions are likely to continue into Northern Hemisphere
Spring 2009.
During December 2008, negative equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
strengthened across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest
weekly SST index values were ?0.3°C in Niño-1+2, ?0.9°C in Niño 3, ?1.1°C in Niño 3.4, and
?0.7°C in Niño 4 (Fig. 2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures
in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also became increasingly negative as below-average
temperatures at thermocline depth strengthened in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).
Convection remained suppressed near the International Date Line, and became more persistent
near Indonesia during December. Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also
strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric
anomalies reflect the development of La Niña.
Nearly all of the recent forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region indicate a continuation of belowaverage
SSTs through the first half of 2009, with at least one-half predicting La Niña conditions
throughout the period (Fig. 5). While the magnitude of cooling remains uncertain, NOAA’s
official La Niña threshold (3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to ?0.5°C) is
expected be met at least through January-March 2009. Therefore, based on current observations,
recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña conditions are likely to continue into the Northern
Hemisphere Spring 2009.
Despite the unusually late start to this La Niña, expected impacts during January-March
2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts
include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average
precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other
potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and aboveaverage
temperatures across much of the southern United States.

That's exactly what the ground hog in my back yard told me !!

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 February 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.
La Niña continued during January 2009, as evidenced by below-average equatorial sea
surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño-4
and Niño-3.4 SST indices remained cooler than −0.5°C throughout January, although positive
index values developed in the easternmost Niño-1+2 region late in the month (Fig. 2). Negative
subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean,
Fig. 3) also persisted east of the International Date Line, but weakened as positive subsurface
temperature anomalies from the western Pacific expanded eastward into the central Pacific (Fig.
4). Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia. Lowlevel
easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also continued across the equatorial Pacific
Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect La Niña.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region indicate a gradual weakening of
La Niña through February-April 2009, with an eventual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions
(Fig. 5). Therefore, based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña is
expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.
Expected La Niña impacts during February-April 2009 include above-average
precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific.
For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation in the southwestern and
southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific
Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.

[fish]

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region indicate a gradual weakening of
La Niña through February-April 2009, with an eventual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions
(Fig. 5).

booooooooo


some good news for PNW

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 March 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to gradually weaken with increasing chances (greater than 50%) for
ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Spring.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during February 2009 continued to reflect La Niña.
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean remained
below-average (Fig. 1), but weakened throughout the month. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 SST indices also
gradually increased, but remained −0.5°C or cooler (Fig. 2). Negative subsurface oceanic heat content
anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) and temperature anomalies at
thermocline depth also weakened across the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). However, convection
remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia. Also, low-level easterly winds
and upper-level westerly winds continued across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic
and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a weakening La Niña.
While nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that La Niña will have
dissipated by May – July 2009, the exact timing of the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is uncertain
(Fig. 5). The timing of the expected transition will depend on the strength of the low-level easterly wind
anomalies and on how quickly the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures dwindles.
Therefore, based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña is expected to
gradually weaken with increasing chances (greater than 50%) for ENSO-neutral conditions during the
Northern Hemisphere Spring.
Expected La Niña impacts during March-May 2009 include above-average precipitation over
Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. Compared to the Northern
Hemisphere winter, La Niña impacts over the United States are typically less pronounced. For the
contiguous United States, potential impacts include below-average precipitation across the southern
states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and aboveaverage
temperatures across much of the southwestern and south-central United States.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated
monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO
Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly
ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.ensoupdate@
noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

[fish]

goodbye la nina

[Woolly the Mammoth]

Update from NOAA weekly forecast:

•Atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niña.
•Negative equatorial SST anomalies persist across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, but have recently weakened.
•Based on recent trends in the observations and model forecasts,La Niña conditions are expected to continue weakening during the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
9 April 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during March 2009 continued to reflect weak La Niña
conditions. The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) remain below-average across parts of the eastcentral
and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño-3.4 SST index value persisted near −0.5°C during
the month (Fig. 2). Negative subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the
upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) weakened further across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
At thermocline depth, positive temperature anomalies in the western and central Pacific expanded
eastward, while negative temperature anomalies became confined to the far eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).
Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia, but weakened
during the later part of the month due to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. Enhanced low-level
easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a weakening La Niña.
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that once ENSO-neutral conditions
are reached, it will continue through the remainder of 2009. Several models indicate La Niña will
continue through March-May 2009 (Fig. 5). Based on current observations, recent trends, and model
forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.
Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña-like impacts are expected to linger during April-June
2009, including above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the
central Pacific. Over the United States, La Niña impacts are strongest during the Northern Hemisphere
winter and typically weaken during the spring. During December 2008-February 2009, tropical
precipitation anomalies reflected La Niña, characterized by a westward retraction of deep tropical
convection towards Indonesia, suppressed precipitation centered on the Date Line, and enhanced rainfall
over northeastern South America (Fig. 6). In the United States, La Niña was associated with drier-thanaverage
conditions across the southern tier of states (extending into California and the mid-Atlantic), and
wetter-than-average conditions over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and northern Intermountain West (Fig.
7).

[Trainwreck]

Ok for some reason "spanish for the nino" just kills me

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
7 May 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere
Summer.
During April 2009, the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from La Niña to ENSO-neutral
conditions, ending the 2008-09 La Niña. Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened
across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive anomalies developed in areas of the eastern Pacific (Fig.
1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST indices were near zero in all Niño regions, except for the
easternmost Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures
in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became positive for the first time since mid-August 2008,
reflecting an eastward spread of above-average temperatures near thermocline depth (Fig. 4).
Atmospheric anomalies consistent with La Niña weakened during April, with enhanced
convection decreasing over Indonesia, although convection remained suppressed near the International
Date Line. Also, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity strongly influenced the atmospheric
circulation across the global tropics, and contributed to the periodic fluctuation in the strength of the lowlevel
easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these
oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that ENSO-neutral conditions will
continue through the remainder of 2009 (Fig. 5). The dynamical models, such as the NCEP Climate
Forecast System (CFS), increasingly favor above-average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region, while
statistical models predict below- or near-average temperatures. Compared to the statistical models, the
dynamical models are more responsive to subsurface temperatures, which have recently increased as
positive anomalies have spread eastward. Based on current observations, recent trends, and model
forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Summer.

[fish]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
4 June 2009

Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2009. However, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average temperatures extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of May (Fig. 1). Accordingly, the latest weekly SST indices ranged between +0.4o to +0.5°C in all four Niño regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures (+2° to +4°C) near thermocline depth (Fig. 4). These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño.

From early 2007 through April 2009, enhanced low-level easterly winds persisted near the Date Line, interrupted only briefly by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. However, during May 2009, both the lower-level equatorial winds were near-average in that region despite the absence of the MJO. Also, suppressed convection expanded westward along the equator from the Date Line to Indonesia. The recent oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but also reflect the evolution towards a potential El Niño.

There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5). All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

[A2thaK]

Excuse my JONG-ynish, but which is more favorable for deep pow for CO and WY? La nina right? I'm not a goddam meterologist and cant understand any of that gibberish yall have been posting.

[irul&ublo]

Excuse my JONG-ynish, but which is more favorable for deep pow for CO and WY? La nina right? I'm not a goddam meterologist and cant understand any of that gibberish yall have been posting.

SEARCH FUNCTION BITCH!!!!!!

[supermodel159]

Excuse my JONG-ynish, but which is more favorable for deep pow for CO and WY? La nina right? I'm not a goddam meterologist and cant understand any of that gibberish yall have been posting.

google.

la and el are not the same.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
4 June 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions
during June − August 2009.
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2009.
However, sea surface temperatures (SST) increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average
temperatures extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of May (Fig. 1). Accordingly, the
latest weekly SST indices ranged between +0.4° to +0.5°C in all four Niño regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface
oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also
continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures (+2° to +4°C) near
thermocline depth (Fig. 4). These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the
development of El Niño.
From early 2007 through April 2009, enhanced low-level easterly winds persisted near the Date
Line, interrupted only briefly by Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. However, during May 2009,
both the lower-level equatorial winds were near-average in that region despite the absence of the MJO.
Also, suppressed convection expanded westward along the equator from the Date Line to Indonesia. The
recent oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but also reflect
the evolution towards a potential El Niño.
There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5).
All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However,
most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño
during June − August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts
indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during
June − August 2009.

[lionelhutz]

We are def. heading in to an El Nino cycle...too soon to tell however how strong it will be. While this doesn't matter for the west coast- us on the EC really care. the difference between strong el nino's, moderate el nino's and weak to neutral el nino's really affect the east coast...For example Philly has done very well in moderate to strong el nino's but the greens have fared only so-so in those years.

Honestly though- for the EC- it's much more about the NAO, the AO and synoptic storms and timing than it is about these mega features.

[imadoofus]

I thought EL nino was significant for the west coast depending on where it shapes up? i.e the PNW resorts typically get significantly lesser amount of precipitation while the south west might be favorably affected.
Did i understand that incorrectly?

[LightRanger]

I thought EL nino was significant for the west coast depending on where it shapes up? i.e the PNW resorts typically get significantly lesser amount of precipitation while the south west might be favorably affected.
Did i understand that incorrectly?

No you're right.

We're on the cold side of a Pacific Decadal Oscillation though, so that somewhat counteracts the El Nino effects though. (And amplifies the La Nina, thus the CA drought.)