Will someone please give me a logical explination

[lemon boy]

Yeah but it's pretty standard to roll with two sleds = trailer. But I do acknowledge that a sled to roll inside some of the larger ones (although, it being wa: you'd definitely need to at least be able to close the doors or seal it up or something for all the rains)

[Gunder]

FYI - Hemas is in large part correct a 4wd ford transit or similar would work fine for the gundertron with the provision that he would have to go to a sled trailer instead of a deck. There's probably about 70% of US pickup drivers that would be excellently (actually better) served by such a vehicle.



^A built one^

Actually I am keeping the trailer I bought for towing with the blazer, cause 4 people and 4 sleds to one truck is a heck of a lot better than 1 or 2 people / sleds to 1 truck.

[hemas]

Yeah but it's pretty standard to roll with two sleds = trailer. But I do acknowledge that a sled to roll inside some of the larger ones (although, it being wa: you'd definitely need to at least be able to close the doors or seal it up or something for all the rains)

well, with 2 sleds, you're roight. Not going to fit. But a long (or semilong) version of a Transporter/similar and you can pretty much fit in even the longest long track sleds (as in one).

[SquawMan]

this just came out and it's written by the best Bond investor in the world (the Warren Buffett of bonds)







Investment Outlook
Bill Gross | June 2008

Hmmmmm?


You can fool some of the people all of the time,
and all of the people some of the time,
but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
– Abraham Lincoln

What this country needs is either a good 5¢ cigar or the reincarnation of an Illinois “rail-splitter” willing to tell the American people “what up” – “what really up.” We have for so long now been willing to be entertained rather than informed, that we more or less accept majority opinion, perpetually shaped by ratings obsessed media, at face value. After 12 months of an endless primary campaign barrage, for instance, most of us believe that a candidate’s preacher – Democrat or Republican – should be a significant factor in how we vote. We care more about who’s going to be eliminated from this week’s American Idol than the deteriorating quality of our healthcare system. Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher’s seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon. We care as much as we always have – we just care about the wrong things: entertainment, as opposed to informed choices; trivia vs. hardcore ideological debate.

It’s Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum folks, and all good fun, but the hordes are crossing the Alps and headed for modern day Rome – better educated, harder working, and willing to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. Can it be any wonder that an estimated 1% of America’s wealth migrates into foreign hands every year? We, as a people, are overweight, poorly educated, overindulged, and imbued with such a sense of self importance on a geopolitical scale, that our allies are dropping like flies. “Yes we can?” Well, if so, then the “we” is the critical element, not the leader that will be chosen in November. Let’s get off the couch and shape up – physically, intellectually, and institutionally – and begin to make some informed choices about our future. Lincoln didn’t say it, but might have agreed, that the worst part about being fooled is fooling yourself, and as a nation, we’ve been doing a pretty good job of that for a long time now.

I’ll tell you another area where we’ve been foolin’ ourselves and that’s the belief that inflation is under control. I laid out the case three years ago in an Investment Outlook titled, “Haute Con Job.” I wasn’t an inflationary Paul Revere or anything, but I joined others in arguing that our CPI numbers were not reflecting reality at the checkout counter. In the ensuing four years, the debate has been joined by the press and astute authors such as Kevin Phillips whose recent Bad Money is as good a summer read detailing the state of the economy and how we got here as an “informed” American could make.

Let me reacquaint you with the debate about the authenticity of U.S. inflation calculations by presenting two ten-year graphs – one showing the ups and downs of year-over-year price changes for 24 representative foreign countries, and the other, the same time period for the U.S. An observer’s immediate take is that there are glaring differences, first in terms of trend and second in the actual mean or average of the 2 calculations. These representative countries, chosen and graphed by Ed Hyman and ISI, have averaged nearly 7% inflation for the past decade, while the U.S. has measured 2.6%. The most recent 12 months produces that same 7% number for the world but a closer 4% in the U.S.

This, dear reader, looks a mite suspicious. Sure, inflation was legitimately much higher in selected hot spots such as Brazil and Vietnam in the late 90s and the U.S. productivity “miracle” may have helped reduce ours a touch compared to some of the rest, but the U.S. dollar over the same period has declined by 30% against a currency basket of its major competitors which should have had an opposite effect, everything else being equal. I ask you: does it make sense that we have a 3% – 4% lower rate of inflation than the rest of the world? Can economists really explain this with their contorted Phillips curve, output gap, multifactor productivity theorizing in an increasingly globalized “one price fits all” commodity driven global economy? I suspect not. Somebody’s been foolin’, perhaps foolin’ themselves – I don’t know. This isn’t a conspiracy blog and there are too many statisticians and analysts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Treasury with rapid turnover to even think of it. I’m just concerned that some of the people are being fooled all of the time and that as an investor, an accurate measure of inflation makes a huge difference.

The U.S. seems to differ from the rest of the world in how it computes its inflation rate in three primary ways: 1) hedonic quality adjustments, 2) calculations of housing costs via owners’ equivalent rent, and 3) geometric weighting/product substitution. The changes in all three areas have favored lower U.S. inflation and have taken place over the past 25 years, the first occurring in 1983 with the BLS decision to modify the cost of housing. It was claimed that a measure based on what an owner might get for renting his house would more accurately reflect the real world – a dubious assumption belied by the experience of the past 10 years during which the average cost of homes has appreciated at 3x the annual pace of the substituted owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and which would have raised the total CPI by approximately 1% annually if the switch had not been made.

The correct measure of inflation matters in a number of areas, not the least of which are social security payments and wage bargaining adjustments. There is no doubt that an artificially low number favors government and corporations as opposed to ordinary citizens. But the number is also critical in any estimation of bond yields, stock prices, and commercial real estate cap rates. If core inflation were really 3% instead of 2%, then nominal bond yields might logically be 1% higher than they are today, because bond investors would require more compensation. And although the Gordon model for the valuation of stocks and real estate would stress “real” as opposed to nominal inflation additive yields, today’s acceptance of an artificially low CPI in the calculation of nominal bond yields in effect means that real yields – including TIPS – are 1% lower than believed. If real yields move higher to compensate, with a constant equity risk premium, then U.S. P/E ratios would move lower. A readjustment of investor mentality in the valuation of all three of these investment categories – bonds, stocks, and real estate – would mean a downward adjustment of price of maybe 5% in bonds and perhaps 10% or more in U.S. stocks and commercial real estate.

A skeptic would wonder whether the U.S. asset-based economy can afford an appropriate repricing or the BLS was ever willing to entertain serious argument on the validity of CPI changes that differed from the rest of the world during the heyday of market-based capitalism beginning in the early 1980s. It perhaps was better to be “entertained” with the notion of artificially low inflation than to be seriously “informed.” But just as many in the global economy are refusing to mimic the American-style fixation with superficialities in favor of hard work and legitimate disclosure, investors might suddenly awake to the notion that U.S. inflation should be and in fact is closer to worldwide levels than previously thought. Foreign holders of trillions of dollars of U.S. assets are increasingly becoming price makers not price takers and in this case the price may not be right. Hmmmmm?

What are the investment ramifications? With global headline inflation now at 7% there is a need for new global investment solutions, a role that PIMCO is more than willing (and able) to provide. In this role we would suggest: 1) Treasury bonds are obviously not to be favored because of their negative (unreal) real yields. 2) U.S. TIPS, while affording headline CPI protection, risk the delusion of an artificially low inflation number as well. 3) On the other hand, commodity-based assets as well as foreign equities whose P/Es are better grounded with local CPI and nominal bond yield comparisons should be excellent candidates. 4) These assets should in turn be denominated in currencies that demonstrate authentic real growth and inflation rates, that while high, at least are credible. 5) Developing, BRIC-like economies are obvious choices for investment dollars.

Investment success depends on an ability to anticipate the herd, ride with it for a substantial period of time, and then begin to reorient portfolios for a changing world. Today’s world, including its inflation rate, is changing. Being fooled some of the time is no sin, but being fooled all of the time is intolerable. Join me in lobbying for change in U.S. leadership, the attitude of its citizenry, and (to the point of this Outlook) the market’s assumption of low relative U.S. inflation in comparison to our global competitors.

William H. Gross
Managing Director

[greg]

You guys doing renovations on Auschwitz? Don't make us come over there and bitch slap you again.

why do you not make any sense at all? weren't you suggesting population control and complaining about those asians using your gas? aren't you the one whining about the current situation? i'm totally fine with high gas prizes.

your lack of any logic whatsoever is utterly amazing.

[lemon boy]

Actually I am keeping the trailer I bought for towing with the blazer, cause 4 people and 4 sleds to one truck is a heck of a lot better than 1 or 2 people / sleds to 1 truck.

Yeah, I bet then that a sprinter/transit would actually work but don't hold your fucking breath for them to ever land on US shores demand or not.

Oh and regardless, I can guarantee you that your tundra was priced way under what a brand new (2wd) sprinter runs. So far under in fact that you couldn't make up the diff. Not that it would stop me from lusting after one.

[Liberal Genius]

why do you not make any sense at all? weren't you suggesting population control and complaining about those asians using your gas? aren't you the one whining about the current situation? i'm totally fine with high gas prizes.

your lack of any logic whatsoever is utterly amazing.

I'm just here to laugh at you goofy German kooks.

[DougW]

Well said. The thread probably should have ended after Hohes' post.

again well said PLUS, the EUROs didn't have any oil so they had to import, so they did the smart thing and taxed the crap out of it to reduce consumption. The States didn't use to import. Now it does and its expensive. Forget about the cost at the pump!! You should be thinking about all that money your sending abroad. (Forget about the money to Canada as we'll buy stuff from you) Even if the price drops the taxes should go up to restrict consumption. If prices stay high for a long period people will go with smaller cars, take transit, bike or whatever. The bike racks at work are a lot fuller this spring and I work for an oil company.

[Pow4Brains]

^A built one^

I want one.

[GoNads]

Yeah but it's pretty standard to roll with two sleds = trailer. But I do acknowledge that a sled to roll inside some of the larger ones (although, it being wa: you'd definitely need to at least be able to close the doors or seal it up or something for all the rains)

At least around Whistler the standard is 2 sleds on a sled deck... just try accessing many of these trail heads with a trailer, especially in gnarly conditions. Not going to make it. At least with a truck you can get 2-4 sleds on or behind your vehicle which is better than 1 towed behind your jetta, that wont actually make it to the trailhead.

I may drive a lot in the winter to get to comps, but my driving otherwise is pretty much nil. Anyone who knows Vancouver knows that the average person is commuting upwards of 1.5-3 hours a day getting to work and back. So whats worse? Me logging maybe an hour in the truck a WEEK or the poor bastard trying to get from Abbotsford to downtown that spends 3 hours a day , and over 20 hours a week in their vehicle? Even if my truck is twice as inefficient they're doing way more damage.

And about snowmobiles, I rarely spent over ~40$ a day on gas, which is cheaper than most lift tickets. And a 4 stroke is NOT going to get you ANYWHERE for MOUNTAIN access. Maybe if you were trail riding back east.

I love you how guys rip on trucks, sleds, when it plays a MAJOR part in the skiing industry which you so dearly love. MSP has been shooting in Bralorne a lot the past 2 years which is ENTIRELY snowmobile access. Start boycotting all ski movies while you're at it. Might as well stop flying too, and traveling, and hell stop popping out kids while you're at it and adopt. Start doing all your own construction work because all those fuckers definitely aren't hauling your new flooring around in a prius.

Yes, it's a choice. But the 1-2 hours I actually drive my truck a week seems negligible compared to those drones in Vancouver who spent hours a day idling in traffic. At least I can bike to town, to the beach, walk to the gym. The doggle needs exercise anyways. I have a truck that costs slightly more on gas, but I spent very little on everything else. Skiing and snowmobiling makes me happy, what more do I need? Oh right, all 5 of my roomates and most of my good friends have big trucks and are also getting sleds next season, they sure as hell aren't 4 strokes, but they sure are eating ramen to get by and stealing milk from the mountain.

[Hugh Conway]

I love you how guys rip on trucks, sleds, when it plays a MAJOR part in the skiing industry which you so dearly love.

Some of us wouldn't mind the skiing industry dying tomorrow

[powslut]

Are you dumb, ignorant or both?

A bit of both but I have enough knowledge to not whine about paying for high fuel prices when my lifestyle revolves around consuming gas. We all have choices in our life, Gunder has chosen to photograph skiers using sleds for access. Others have chosen the same career path, been successful and hardly ever use sleds. My sympathy is negligible right now.

[FrankZappa]

I can't keep track of the score in here. Anybody got it?

[summit]

A bit of both but I have enough knowledge to not whine about paying for high fuel prices when my lifestyle revolves around consuming gas. We all have choices in our life, Gunder has chosen to photograph skiers using sleds for access. Others have chosen the same career path, been successful and hardly ever use sleds. My sympathy is negligible right now.

Your attitude was that sleds are a gross excess. Stop and think about how much more camera gear you can bring in and how much more bomber gear the athletes can bring in, how many more remote places you can go, and how many more laps your skiers can do if you have sleds. Sleds = more pics with better equipment (skis and cameras) in more places.

[powslut]

I love you how guys rip on trucks, sleds, when it plays a MAJOR part in the skiing industry which you so dearly love.

I rip on it because I've made a conscious decision a few years ago to sell my sled and to not use them anymore. The ski industry existed for 100 years before snowmobiles became popular and I guarantee if you took them away tomorrow it would continue to exist. I enjoy skiing more now than I did at any point in the past. Anyway you turn it around snowmobiles are inefficient, noisy and more cause pollution than any vehicle on the road. Older sleds emit up to 30% of their fuel and oil unburned. Talk about wastage.

You're no different than the commuters in Vancouver. Instead of idling through traffic on the highway you rip up to the alpine going 90km/h while spitting out gas, exhaust and noise. Is that your choice? Yes. But it is also my right to be a bastard when people like you whine and complain that they are paying to much to destroy OUR environment.

IMO they should levee massive environmental surcharges on all two stroke engines to make the users pay for their waste. Even better will be the day when they outright ban two stroke engines.

[arild]

I can't keep track of the score in here. Anybody got it?

North American maggots complain about fuel prices, European and Scandinavian maggots trash their complaining, North American maggots say they have the gnarliest conditions in the world(Baker), European maggots say no, North American maggots say European maggots have smaller, more fuel efficient cars because of higher population density in Yurp, European maggots prove them wrong, then maggots started talking about bikes and commuting, and maggots are hopefully all friends again.

My opinion: You had it coming.

[powslut]

Your attitude was that sleds are a gross excess. Stop and think about how much more camera gear you can bring in and how much more bomber gear the athletes can bring in, how many more remote places you can go, and how many more laps your skiers can do if you have sleds. Sleds = more pics with better equipment (skis and cameras) in more places.

Why don't you stop and think about how many people actually care about those photos? Most people don't ski because of the pretty pictures, most people ski because they enjoy the sport. You're trying to justify your actions by catering to a very small percentage of the demographic.

[Mofro261]

I can't keep track of the score in here. Anybody got it?

Looks like a tie: Gas is expensive. People love their gas.


Now pull my finger.

[Liberal Genius]

IMO they should levee massive environmental surcharges on all two stroke engines to make the users pay for their waste. Even better will be the day when they outright ban two stroke engines.

FUCK yeah dude!!!! more TAXES!!!!!

How exactly have snowmobiles destroyed your environment?

[skier666]

Just wanted to say 'Hello' on the 9th page in this thread.

[powslut]

FUCK yeah dude!!!! more TAXES!!!!!

How exactly have snowmobiles destroyed your environment?

Hmm, ever been to a popular snowmobiling area in the summer? Beyond all the trash left behind, the beautiful rainbow colored slicks flowing down the streams and on top of the ponds is definitely one way. Maybe the noxious fumes you breath when there's a lot of those machines around. But I guess that's not really pollution, because you're out enjoying nature.

It should definitely be taxed. Why should I pay for your excess?

[Bunion 2020]

Grant? Does the number 50.5 mean anything?

If you are using that truck for your job it should.

A least you get a tax break.

[Toadman]

I can't keep track of the score in here. Anybody got it?

Truck owners - 0
Sledneckers - 0
Euros - 0
Americans - -1
Big Oil - +4

[Pow4Brains]

Why don't you stop and think about how many people actually care about those photos? Most people don't ski because of the pretty pictures, most people ski because they enjoy the sport. You're trying to justify your actions by catering to a very small percentage of the demographic.

About the same amount as all of.......

two stroke engines.

.........pollute by comparison.

[FrankZappa]

For some reason I thought there were more than two teams at play.

More like World Cup Gas Consumpitition.

...or maybe it's just boiled down to the finals.