Obama's lead evaporated, McCain beating both

**TannerP** · 03-19-2008, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by newschoolerz

freefall or not, people want change and the man to do it is Barack. Just check out his speech yesterday, I didn't see McCain doing anything like that, evar!

It's a long way off and the more people hear politics as usual, they will be more inclined to vote for Barack. Change is demanded!

Can you barrack supporters please explain your change? All I ever hear is change but change can be positive or negative. Why don't you explain why he is different and why people want the changes that he is proposing. I have seen you make several posts sounding exactly like this one.
BTW all this change that politicians talk about is a bunch of bull shit to get them elected. I guarantee that if Obama is elected he will not get us out of Iraq nearly as fast as he is saying, if he ever does. I hate to burst your bubble but it's the truth. He is just another politician so you really shouldn't be expecting much.

**TannerP** · 03-19-2008, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by newschoolerz

Obama - Bloomberg ticket? That could work to satisfy all sides I think?!?

Haha I love Bloomberg. I don't agree with his fiscal policies but it was fucking hilarious what he said about weed.

**The AD** · 03-19-2008, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by TannerP

I guarantee that if Obama is elected he will not get us out of Iraq nearly as fast as he is saying, if he ever does. I hate to burst your bubble but it's the truth.

No shit, but at least his position is to withdraw from Iraq.

**TannerP** · 03-19-2008, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by The AD

No shit, but at least his position is to withdraw from Iraq.

Mccains plan is to withdraw from iraq in 100 years.

But I know what you are saying. It is just that the dems promised us the same thing in 2006 and didn't do shit. I disapprove of pretty much every person in washington really so don't feel like I'm trying to shit all over the dems.

**newschoolerz** · 03-19-2008, 05:28 PM

Barack is going to represent change for change. Just that. A fresh look, a fresh approach, a fresh relationship with washington. He is what you have been waiting for in Washington, HE is what we have been waiting for!

He has a plan that will actualy get us out of Iraq

He has a plan that will actually give us all free healthcare

He has a plan that will put kids through college

He has a plan that will bring jobs back to America, and not ship them overseas to companies getting tax breaks!

**Jer** · 03-19-2008, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by TannerP

Can you barrack supporters please explain your change?

Well, I guess that's me so lemme take a shot at it. Obama will be elected next fall and over the next four years he will drop the ball so horribly that the US public will demand a CHANGE from the gay ass 2 party system we have now.

**cantunamunch** · 03-19-2008, 08:20 PM

Originally Posted by Jer

Well, I guess that's me so lemme take a shot at it. Obama will be elected next fall and over the next four years he will drop the ball so horribly that the US public will demand a CHANGE from the gay ass 2 party system we have now.

Sheeyit. I'm in.

**iceclimb** · 03-19-2008, 08:34 PM

AJ, you seem like the kind of guy who checks his stocks every day, or maybe checks with Mom to see if it's ok to go out with the guys, at 35 years old.

Your shtick is more tired than a vegas hooker on convention duty.

**irul&ublo** · 03-19-2008, 09:14 PM

Originally Posted by AlpineJunkie

Well well well, how about that, turns out I was right afterall. Any of you douches still want to argue that this isn't the beginning of the end for Obama.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080319/...litics_poll_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.

Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher.

The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22.

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.

"The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby.

Matched up against Clinton, McCain leads 48 percent to 40 percent, narrower than his 50 to 38 percent advantage over her in February.

"It's not surprising to me that McCain's on top because there is disarray and confusion on the Democratic side," Zogby said

Obama gave a speech on Tuesday rebuking his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for sermons sometimes laced with inflammatory tirades but said he could not disown him and it was time for Americans to bind the country's racial wounds.

The poll showed Obama continues to have strong support from the African-American community but that he is experiencing some slippage among moderates and independents.

Among independents, McCain led for the first time in the poll, 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama.

He was behind McCain by 21 percent among white voters.

Zogby attributed this to a combination of the fallout from Clinton's victory in Ohio earlier this month and the controversy over Wright's sermons.

"And, just the closer he gets to the nomination, the tougher questions whites ask about an African-American candidate," Zogby said.

The March 13-14 poll surveyed 525 likely Democratic primary voters for the matchup between Clinton and Obama. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

For the matchup between McCain and his Democratic rivals, 1004 likely voters were surveyed. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Its a long way to November junior.

**3eyedsmiley** · 03-19-2008, 09:32 PM

Originally Posted by TannerP

Can you barrack supporters please explain your change? All I ever hear is change but change can be positive or negative. Why don't you explain why he is different and why people want the changes that he is proposing. I have seen you make several posts sounding exactly like this one.
BTW all this change that politicians talk about is a bunch of bull shit to get them elected. I guarantee that if Obama is elected he will not get us out of Iraq nearly as fast as he is saying, if he ever does. I hate to burst your bubble but it's the truth. He is just another politician so you really shouldn't be expecting much.

Yeah I agree that getting out of Iraq that fast will either not happen or be a major explosive event. I just can't see how you could realistically do it. Anyways the change is for me just a change in mindset, against political norms. You see the old political mindset with Bush and Clinton and their entourages of people who have been in politics for decades and who can't seem to just get the job done as well as others could. You can see what Bush's advisers did and what Clinton's advisers did for her campaign. And then you see how well Obama's campaign has been planned out and constructed; that isn't just by mistake.
I just think that Obama isn't afraid to stand up for his values, get the best people in adviser positions, and take a stand for America. We just need strong leadership in the RIGHT direction. I think that Obama has the best ability to do that. In less pressing times, Clinton could be acceptable as the safe choice; I don't think she could wreck a country as president, but I just don't think she can lead one either in times like these.

**jon turner** · 03-19-2008, 09:34 PM

Originally Posted by AlpineJunkie

Yes these guys with PhD's in statistics have no idea what they are doing

I hate to break it to you but everytime these polls come out that doesn't mean that they called 300 million people the night before

Checked on this, and though a larger sample size would reduce the confidence interval, with very large populations the statistics do not require too large of a sample size (though increasing the sample size to 2500 would drop the confidence interval to 2 points). However, with the size of the country and variety of demographics, I still would argue that this small of a sample size makes it hard to get a true representative sample which would be a good argument to show the inconsistencies between the various polls. Though I don't have a PhD, I am a math teacher and do know a little about this subject.

Here's a much better picture of eight of the major polls listed side by side. It's interesting how all the polls have mixed results and the obama vs. McCain polls do not all show McCain as an obvious front runner in that hypothetical race:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

In the end, we still have almost 8 months of campaigning, and once a democratic pick is decided, I think things will change as well, so it's a little quick to claim one side or the other has a definite lead. I don't even know who I'd vote for yet, and I'm sure there are many who could sway either way still.

**Rubicon** · 03-19-2008, 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by 3eyedsmiley

Anyways the change is for me just a change in mindset, against political norms.

Kind of like the New Tone? We saw how well that worked out.

You see the old political mindset with Bush and Clinton...

All we heard from Bush and company was how he was going to bring something different to Washington, a "new tone". Not "politics as usual". Sounded just like Obama does right now. So you believe Obama because why?

McCain has a stronger case to make as the candidate of change. At least he has a history of going against his own party to do what he thought was right.

Not that I'm a big fan of McCain either. As The AD mentioned he is angry and more than a little arrogant. He's also too old.

doughboyshredder · 03-19-2008, 10:33 PM

Originally Posted by newschoolerz

He has a plan that will actualy get us out of Iraq

He has a plan that will actually give us all free healthcare

He has a plan that will put kids through college

He has a plan that will bring jobs back to America, and not ship them overseas to companies getting tax breaks!

Those are all great plans. He doesn't have them though.

First off, his plan to get us out of Iraq is not even close to formulated. All it is at this point, is that he would immediately start reducing troop size. Not much of a plan.

Secondly, there is no such thing as a free lunch, and it is not for everyone.

Third, I haven't heard of this plan, but how will it be paid for, and what are the specifics.

Last, how will he "bring jobs back to America"?

All that being said, Obama would be a much better president than McCain.

**Rasputin** · 03-20-2008, 12:16 AM

Originally Posted by Rubicon

McCain has a stronger case to make as the candidate of change. At least he has a history of going against his own party to do what he thought was right.

Hey, you forgot to call him a maverick, that makes him really sound like he's all about change and shit.

I like his plan for a ten thousand year war, no pussy footing around, just long term military domination of "our interests" in the Middle East; it's bound to work its way out before the ten thousand years is up anyway, I expect the oil will be gone long before that.

**Kevo** · 03-20-2008, 12:55 AM

Dammit, I hate to say it...

...but I really hope the democrats don't tear themselves down again this time. I'd like McCain if he showed a backbone like I was expecting him to. Instead it seems that he will do whatever his advisers deem is necessary to win the election (ie acting more conservative than he has in the past). Its sad really.

I still think Obama is the better of the choices at hand.

**Jeremiah Wright** · 03-20-2008, 02:38 AM

The only reason McCain is winning is because all of you racist crackers are out there voting while all us black people are sitting around with AIDs.

**jce338** · 03-20-2008, 07:50 AM

Originally Posted by AlpineJunkie

Well well well, how about that, turns out I was right afterall. Any of you douches still want to argue that this isn't the beginning of the end for Obama.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080319/...litics_poll_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.

Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher.

The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22.

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.

"The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby.

Matched up against Clinton, McCain leads 48 percent to 40 percent, narrower than his 50 to 38 percent advantage over her in February.

"It's not surprising to me that McCain's on top because there is disarray and confusion on the Democratic side," Zogby said

Obama gave a speech on Tuesday rebuking his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for sermons sometimes laced with inflammatory tirades but said he could not disown him and it was time for Americans to bind the country's racial wounds.

The poll showed Obama continues to have strong support from the African-American community but that he is experiencing some slippage among moderates and independents.

Among independents, McCain led for the first time in the poll, 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama.

He was behind McCain by 21 percent among white voters.

Zogby attributed this to a combination of the fallout from Clinton's victory in Ohio earlier this month and the controversy over Wright's sermons.

"And, just the closer he gets to the nomination, the tougher questions whites ask about an African-American candidate," Zogby said.

The March 13-14 poll surveyed 525 likely Democratic primary voters for the matchup between Clinton and Obama. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

For the matchup between McCain and his Democratic rivals, 1004 likely voters were surveyed. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

**The AD** · 03-20-2008, 08:37 AM

Originally Posted by doughboyshredder

First off, his plan to get us out of Iraq is not even close to formulated. All it is at this point, is that he would immediately start reducing troop size. Not much of a plan.

Huh. Sounds like a pretty good start to me.

**whatcomridaz** · 03-20-2008, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by Tippster

Yep - once we the media keep replaying how Bush had to help McCain up the White House steps, and - more importantly - start mentioning the Keating 5 and S&L bailouts when we start bailing out the Investment banks the worm will def. turn for the worse.

Yeah because I'm sure rezko and crew will turn out to be nothing... Everyone knows Chicago politician's are as honest as they come.

**Toadman** · 03-20-2008, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by Rubicon

McCain has a stronger case to make as the candidate of change. At least he has a history of going against his own party to do what he thought was right.

So every once and awhile McCain sided with the dems. That's why the far right and all the right wing talking heads can't stand him.

AlpineJunkie · 03-20-2008, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by Toadman

So every once and awhile McCain sided with the dems. That's why the far right and all the right wing talking heads can't stand him.

Yeah but he did it on extremely important big issues where it made a difference. I had to laugh at Obama's list of bills of him going across the aisle he provided. It was all for little stupid shit where you would completely expect to go across the aisle on. You know shit like "We hereby vote to condemn the molesting of children". It was all stuff that was either a no brainer that no one went against or it was for llittle stupid shit where there was no political risk going one way or the other. The fact is Obama has proven to have the most partisan voting record there is and yet just because he speaks well he has managed to convince people it's the other way around. Kind of like with this whole pastor thing. He has warped it into being about race when it was actually about hate, and he has convinced everyone that you should just understand and accept hate instead of just condemn it.

**Mybad!** · 03-20-2008, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by AlpineJunkie

That shit will affect everyone. That's why even though I know McCain will handedly win this Nov there is a very good chance that he will only be a 1 termer since everything will be such a fucking mess for 4 years. The next guy is going to have a mess on his hands.

McCain will be, what, 90 if he gets into office?

Go Obama!