Revelstoke weather ?

**marmot mb** · 02-02-2008, 10:21 PM

If it reports rain for Revelstoke what does that mean for the mountain.

Likely to rain on the hill. (dependant on freezing level of course, but this data isn't avail at this time for mid Feb)

Likely only rain in town (valley floor) IE what usually happens??

gonna be powlisiouce on the hill?

Locals ????

**powslut** · 02-02-2008, 10:31 PM

That long term forecast kind of looks like a pineapple express might be rolling through. We're all doomed.

**marmot mb** · 02-02-2008, 10:38 PM

Trying to decide where to go for mid feb mid week.

this is what I have now, based on that my bets on Fernie as the temp is below 0 C. Revy might be crazy good, or crazy ugly ice crust.

Fernie
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ind...ecode=caab0244

Castle (actually Pincher Creek info is all thats avail)
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ind...ecode=caab0244

Revelstoke
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ind...ecode=caab0244

**Huckin eh?** · 02-02-2008, 10:41 PM

Its gonna PUKE over in Revy big time!

**powslut** · 02-02-2008, 10:57 PM

I'd take the forecasts from TWN with a grain of salt. They don't tend to be too accurate, especially in the long term.

**marmot mb** · 02-02-2008, 11:01 PM

Yeah I have seen 6 days of snow turn into 1 many times.

There seems to be a pretty consistent pattern of snow all through Western AB and Eastern part of BC accoding to Canada weather and TWN for Feb 11 - 16.

Question is where will the most fall?

I would normally bet on Revy but that warm temp action makes me think twice.

**powslut** · 02-02-2008, 11:03 PM

If it indeed turns out to be a pineapple express or other warm weather event you might be best off to stick to the east side of the continental divide.

**lifts4turns** · 02-02-2008, 11:46 PM

So, what would revelstoke me like mid march?

**mountmac** · 02-03-2008, 09:58 AM

mid march should be blue bird time

**marmot mb** · 02-05-2008, 08:08 PM

Bump for more beta

still forcasting rain for Feb 11 - 15.

Can any locals clue me in to what this means on the hill ?

**bcboy** · 02-05-2008, 10:53 PM

First off, don't put much faith in theweathernetwork. Environent Canada is far more accurate. Based on the weather reported by the hill and by Environment Canada the hill is several degrees colder, especially at the top, which makes a lot of sense since there's like 5000+ ft of vert between the summit and the town.

I'm headed there this weekend. I'll let you know what I find.

**Chrispmoto** · 02-05-2008, 11:21 PM

I live here and ski pretty much every day. It is fucking winter up there. I dont think it has been above -10 at all this year, and closer to -15 or so consistently.

**gramboh** · 02-06-2008, 02:41 PM

Looks like there is more snow in the forecast? I'm thinking of driving out of town tomorrow night and doing a Fri/Sat at either Revy or Golden (or maybe Fernie). Decisions decisions.

**marmot mb** · 02-06-2008, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by Chrispmoto

I live here and ski pretty much every day. It is fucking winter up there. I dont think it has been above -10 at all this year, and closer to -15 or so consistently.

the forcast for Revelstoke for Feb 11 - 15 is to have temps well above 0C.

Granted at the top of the hill it will be much colder but what about at the base of the chair or lower part of the mountain.

If it's raining in town does this mean the lower part of the mountain is getting rain, or is it usuall that it's snow at the base when raining in town ?

**gramboh** · 02-06-2008, 03:39 PM

Originally Posted by marmot mb

the forcast for Revelstoke for Feb 11 - 15 is to have temps well above 0C.

Granted at the top of the hill it will be much colder but what about at the base of the chair or lower part of the mountain.

If it's raining in town does this mean the lower part of the mountain is getting rain, or is it usuall that it's snow at the base when raining in town ?

Not sure, I've only skiied there once so far this year. I believe the temp ranged from about -2 at the base lodge to -15 at the top (with a bit of wind) when I was there. I don't know if I'd trust a forecast that far out. If I get up there Fri/Sat I'll post what it was like in here.

**johnnya** · 02-06-2008, 03:44 PM

Originally Posted by marmot mb

the forcast for Revelstoke for Feb 11 - 15 is to have temps well above 0C.

Granted at the top of the hill it will be much colder but what about at the base of the chair or lower part of the mountain.

If it's raining in town does this mean the lower part of the mountain is getting rain, or is it usuall that it's snow at the base when raining in town ?

It depends? dude nobody can predict this shit...what do you want? Its febuary and it will probably be snow at some elevation on the hill. go ski and have fun.

**2stix** · 02-06-2008, 03:51 PM

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts...stoke/6day/top

Seems relatively accurate. Also has 3 different elevations to see the temp change, wind speed and snow.

**el hefe** · 02-06-2008, 03:58 PM

Weather network sucks! They are so consistently off it's not even funny, someone should report them to the BBB. ^ snow-forecast.com is solid as is enviro canada and this link is great for the PNW as far as timing for moisture is concerned, this has been the most accurate this season: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ove...d1_pcp3+//72/3

Also avalanche.ca has some really good mountain weather info and some good insight from the forecasters as to what they think will be happening, ie- they will give good warning about any potential pineapples or major storms.

**el hefe** · 02-06-2008, 03:59 PM

And don't sweat about a little rain at the bottom of the mountain, the gondola is waterproof.

**marmot mb** · 02-06-2008, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by johnnya

It depends? dude nobody can predict this shit...what do you want? Its febuary and it will probably be snow at some elevation on the hill. go ski and have fun.

I am not asking for predictions, I am asking what usually happens if it's raining in town.

Draggin all my buds there, booked rooms and tickets for 3 days for all, hours away from any other ski hill on ice covered highways, skiing 1/2 a mountain covered in ice seems like a great way to have fun.

"probably going to snow at some elevation"

Thanks man that was so helpfull, I never would have figured it out.

The others those links were solid.

**Chrispmoto** · 02-06-2008, 05:50 PM

Dont worry. It will be good. It is very rare to have rain to the top.

**Tin Woodsman** · 02-06-2008, 06:45 PM

Your problem is that you're looking at Canadian websites for your weather fix. Whenever I travel to BC, I'm a bit of a psycho in trying to determine what the weather is going to be, and the lack of good qualitative information on the forecast is really frustrating. All you get from Enviro Canada is the basic forecast for the towns in the valley locations. That's next to useless. Thankfully, we here in the US still do a few things right, and one of those things is publicly available weather forecasts and discussions via the National Weather Service website. There are a slew of NWS offices spread throughout the country, each producing a near and medium term forecast for their respective forecast areas. If these offices are adjacent to the Canadian border, you can feel pretty confident that the weather within shouting distance to the north of the border will be generally similar to that which is forecasted to the south.

For skiers in BC, this means getting intimate with either the NWS office out of Spokane, which covers the area from the Cascade crest over to the Idaho panhandle, or the NWS office out of Sea/Tac, covering the Olympic Peninsula, I-5 corridor, and the Cascades. I'm skiing with Valhalla Powder Cats outside of Nelson on the 8th-11th, so I've been blowing up the NWS Spokane site a few times a day. Each NWS office website has two features that should interest you. First, you are able to produce a pretty good seven-day text forecast for ANY location in their forecast area by clicking the spot you want on the map on their home page. If you know what you're doing, you can select a spot on the map that is in the mountains and will spit out a forecast for the elevations you're interested in (this is all driven by data from the computer models they use, from which a forecast can be derived for any elevation or location). For example, I've bookmarked the following spot at a 6600' elevation about 5 miles south of the border:

http://tinyurl.com/2s7onn

Note how it forecasts consistently below freezing temps, gusty winds, and 9-16" of snow in the next 36 hours. However, if you follow this next link for the forecast in Metaline, WA down in the adjacent valley at 2400', note the difference:

http://tinyurl.com/yt65mc

Temps peaking above freezing during the day, chance of some rain mixing in at times, and 6-12" of accumulations in the next 36 hours.

The second really useful tool is the Area Forecast Discussion. This is produced twice per day (usually around 3 AM and 3 PM local time) and provides a qualitative discussion of what the forecast looks like for at least the next week and sometimes longer. This product can be accessed by clicking on the "Forecast Discussion" link in the box on the lower right side of the page. this product is particularly useful if you take the time to parse through some of the weather-speak so you can follow most of what they're saying. In this afternoon's discussion, you'll find the following words that should be of interest to you:

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR. SOME WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING IN. BUT THE RIDGE IS SHORT LIVED AS BY TUESDAY A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO WARM UP TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES IN THE BASIN AS SOME WARM 850 MB TEMPS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR EXTREME EASTERN WA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. GENERALLY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

But Tin Woodsman, Revy is like 300km north of the US border! Surely this doesn't apply to there? Poppycock. If there is a Pineapple Express hitting Revy, it's going to hit Washington State first. While the pattern is clearly changing from consistently cold and snowy, there are no dramatic warm-ups in the forecast that will impact mountain locations. Valley (2400' elevation) highs at the US/Canada border are forecasted to be in the 2-3 C range on the 11th through 13th. You should subtract 1-2 C for the town of Revy due to its location further north. You should then subtract an additional 1-2 C for every 1000 ft of elevation gain. In short, barring a completely unforecasted catastrophe, you're going to be good to go with good temps (hard to know if you'll have precip) for at least the top 3/4 of the mountain, and likely everything from the current gondi base on up. Keep looking at this site for the next 3-4 days and you'll have a pretty good sense of what the temps will be, along with an idea of whether there will be storminess in the area.

**el hefe** · 02-06-2008, 09:28 PM

Those are cool links, thanks. I do agree that the weather info you guys receive is much more detailed. The precip model that I like is from washington (uni?). Keep in mind that there are huge areas of BC that have nothing but forest and mountains. Only a few passes that warrant major attention as well.

But enviro Canada is far from useless. I agree that it is hard to pin down conditions in the mountains with the 5 day forecasts. But it is very useful when you can use the Radar, high elevation forecasts, Sat images, etc.

The radar at Silver Star is very useful even for the Valahalla's including revy and all of the interior resorts.

Combine this with local knowledge and the above mentioned sites it ends up doing the job just fine.

**FreakofSnow** · 02-06-2008, 11:31 PM

Originally Posted by Tin Woodsman

Your problem is that you're looking at Canadian websites for your weather fix. Whenever I travel to BC, I'm a bit of a psycho in trying to determine what the weather is going to be, and the lack of good qualitative information on the forecast is really frustrating. All you get from Enviro Canada is the basic forecast for the towns in the valley locations. That's next to useless. Thankfully, we here in the US still do a few things right, and one of those things is publicly available weather forecasts and discussions via the National Weather Service website. There are a slew of NWS offices spread throughout the country, each producing a near and medium term forecast for their respective forecast areas. If these offices are adjacent to the Canadian border, you can feel pretty confident that the weather within shouting distance to the north of the border will be generally similar to that which is forecasted to the south.

For skiers in BC, this means getting intimate with either the NWS office out of Spokane, which covers the area from the Cascade crest over to the Idaho panhandle, or the NWS office out of Sea/Tac, covering the Olympic Peninsula, I-5 corridor, and the Cascades. I'm skiing with Valhalla Powder Cats outside of Nelson on the 8th-11th, so I've been blowing up the NWS Spokane site a few times a day. Each NWS office website has two features that should interest you. First, you are able to produce a pretty good seven-day text forecast for ANY location in their forecast area by clicking the spot you want on the map on their home page. If you know what you're doing, you can select a spot on the map that is in the mountains and will spit out a forecast for the elevations you're interested in (this is all driven by data from the computer models they use, from which a forecast can be derived for any elevation or location). For example, I've bookmarked the following spot at a 6600' elevation about 5 miles south of the border:

http://tinyurl.com/2s7onn

Note how it forecasts consistently below freezing temps, gusty winds, and 9-16" of snow in the next 36 hours. However, if you follow this next link for the forecast in Metaline, WA down in the adjacent valley at 2400', note the difference:

http://tinyurl.com/yt65mc

Temps peaking above freezing during the day, chance of some rain mixing in at times, and 6-12" of accumulations in the next 36 hours.

The second really useful tool is the Area Forecast Discussion. This is produced twice per day (usually around 3 AM and 3 PM local time) and provides a qualitative discussion of what the forecast looks like for at least the next week and sometimes longer. This product can be accessed by clicking on the "Forecast Discussion" link in the box on the lower right side of the page. this product is particularly useful if you take the time to parse through some of the weather-speak so you can follow most of what they're saying. In this afternoon's discussion, you'll find the following words that should be of interest to you:

But Tin Woodsman, Revy is like 300km north of the US border! Surely this doesn't apply to there? Poppycock. If there is a Pineapple Express hitting Revy, it's going to hit Washington State first. While the pattern is clearly changing from consistently cold and snowy, there are no dramatic warm-ups in the forecast that will impact mountain locations. Valley (2400' elevation) highs at the US/Canada border are forecasted to be in the 2-3 C range on the 11th through 13th. You should subtract 1-2 C for the town of Revy due to its location further north. You should then subtract an additional 1-2 C for every 1000 ft of elevation gain. In short, barring a completely unforecasted catastrophe, you're going to be good to go with good temps (hard to know if you'll have precip) for at least the top 3/4 of the mountain, and likely everything from the current gondi base on up. Keep looking at this site for the next 3-4 days and you'll have a pretty good sense of what the temps will be, along with an idea of whether there will be storminess in the area.

And with that inane weather dribble.......the forecast is usually still wrong,am I right?

**Tin Woodsman** · 02-07-2008, 07:08 AM

Originally Posted by el hefe

Those are cool links, thanks. I do agree that the weather info you guys receive is much more detailed. The precip model that I like is from washington (uni?). Keep in mind that there are huge areas of BC that have nothing but forest and mountains. Only a few passes that warrant major attention as well.

But enviro Canada is far from useless. I agree that it is hard to pin down conditions in the mountains with the 5 day forecasts. But it is very useful when you can use the Radar, high elevation forecasts, Sat images, etc.

The radar at Silver Star is very useful even for the Valahalla's including revy and all of the interior resorts.

Combine this with local knowledge and the above mentioned sites it ends up doing the job just fine.

Yeah - useless is a strong word. I just wish they would open up the "black box" from which their forecasts are made so that the general public can understand the back up for their forecasts and act accordingly. While much of BC is just mountains and forests, the relevance of those mountains and forests to the economy (and metal well being) of the province far outstrips their importance from a population perspective. In the middle of a Nelson winter, I'd bet just as many people are interested in the forecast for the 1600 m elevation in the mountains as they are for the forecast at lake level.

Sat pictures can't help you in terms of how much moisture is coming (other than - that's a BIG blob) and what the temps or winds are likely to be. I haven't found good elevation forecasts on the E.C. website, so maybe I just haven't looked hard enough, but they sure don't make it easy for you regardless.