PNW Be FUCKING CAREFULL

[Gunder]

From the NWAC:


SNOWPACK ANALYSIS
Although briefly decreasing winds and snowfall have allowed for a slight danger decrease from the recent avalanche warning situation, significant weak layers remain buried in a continuing scary and quasi-continental snowpack structure. This structure consists of large amounts of recent slightly higher density snow received this past week lying over smaller amounts of lower density snow from last week, all over a weak and increasingly faceted crust formed in early December. This faceting and associated temperature gradients near the crust have now reduced the crust to a mostly decomposed and rather weak granular structure in many areas while allowing for an increasingly poor bond between the crust and the overlying large amounts of recent snow. Additionally, buried weak layers of surface hoar are interspersed with some weaker low density layers above the crust. Finally, in areas where winds and snowfall decreased overnight, some very low density snow and surface hoar has been reported early Friday morning. Obviously this apparently more stable and fluffy snow structure near the surface is masking some very substantial and deeply buried instabilities. As a result, high danger continues above about 5 to 6000 feet in steeper avalanche terrain of the Olympics, Mt Hood area and Washington Cascades near and west of the crest, with a slightly lower but still considerable avalanche danger at lower elevations and along the Cascade east slopes. Back country travelers should exercise significant caution in avalanche terrain with travel not recommended on steeper wind loaded slopes at higher elevations.

Field reports from many areas continue to indicate a dangerous snowpack structure, with both human and explosive triggered large slabs being reported during the past few days. Slab depths have ranged from a few feet up to 6-7 feet, with most larger slides releasing on either the decomposed old crust or the ground. Good fracture propagation has been noted as well as sympathetic releases and resulting avalanches quickly running full path and beyond. Also, many reports of shooting cracks and sudden snowpack settlement (whomping) continue, indicating significant collapse of overlying slabs on one or more buried weak layers. As a result of all of these weather and snowpack conditions, back country travel in avalanche terrain is still not recommended at higher elevations on Friday. All back country travelers, whether their mode of travel is by ski, snowboard, snowmobile or snowshoe, are urged to confine travel to more gentle and/or tree covered terrain until the recent large amounts of new snow have had a chance to further settle and stabilize.
It should also be noted that the snowshoer who triggered and was caught by a slab avalanche near Edith Basin above Paradise on Mt Rainier on Tuesday remains missing; hopefully better weather will aid searching efforts today.

It is important to re-emphasize that although a recent decrease in winds in some areas may make the current new snow surface very attractive, this surface is masking a variety of buried weaknesses which may need only a little added stress to release. While slow snowpack stabilization should occur Friday, several episodes of heavy loading over the weekend should bring further significant danger increases mid-late Saturday and again mid-late Sunday. Although most avalanche activity should involve only the most recently deposited snow releasing on lower density snow or some surface hoar, this weather should maintain the potential for some very large slab slides that may still involve all of the recent snow down to the old early December crust, especially in areas not experiencing recent avalanche activity.

[RootSkier]

7 foot slabs.

[Greydon Clark]

Saw that description this morning, dicey…

[Mtn Man]

Saw it coming with the FL going like a yoyo lately in early season. Be careful out there. If you head OB, route selection is CRUCIAL! Stay below 25-30deg if you even dare....

Freakin' 6-7ft slabs = devastation

B)

[danimal's dead]

2 snowmobilers in 2 days were buried behind big mt. Both lucky to survive, 1 broke a leg.

30" in 3 days, more closer to the park, BE CAREFUL.

[Bud]

Damn snowpack is gonna be messed up until we get another pineapple xpress to puke some rain up high and consolidate the whole thing again.
In the meantime though, the easily accessed inbounds powder will be more than enough to keep me happy.

[Gunder]

7 foot slabs.

Yep. There are multiples in the Baker BC. Hemis, the beast, and the second knob.....

Shit last weekend we where easily ski cutting 2~3 ft slabs, so this is no surprise.

The thing is that in the PNW shit usually stabilizes given enough time, but this time it is actually getting worse with time.

[puma]

Damn snowpack is gonna be messed up until we get another pineapple xpress to puke some rain up high and consolidate the whole thing again.
In the meantime though, the easily accessed inbounds powder will be more than enough to keep me happy.

I'm sure your wish will be granted sooner than we would like...Sunday freezing levels are going up, but probably not too high, and quickly back down with snow...It was an awesome storm cycle.

[Moss-Back]

Tread softly upon thy sketchy snowpack...

Please be uber-careful out there folks.

That is all.

12

[BakerBunny]

Today was one of the most solid snowpacks I have seen at Baker this year. Shows you how microclimate variations can override the large area analysis. The Wednesday wet snow (paste) was set up sufficiently by the cold Thursday night temperatures that no way was skier activity going to influence layers below that Wednesday cap. You might happen to be ON a 7' slab when it broke, but no way was skier activity going to break it. It would (and did) take artillary to do that.

I love it when all the backcountry dudes are wringing their hands in the parking lot because of some alarm forcast while we are out ripping everything in sight, unaccompanied by the usual masses!

[Huckin eh?]

I predict some serious carnage this year. Last year in the south Rockies we had a very stable snowpack and people where dropping some seriously cool lines. To anyone who only started venturing out last year, don't let your guard down because of the shit you were able to pull off before.
I have 4 b/c days already this year and triggered 2 avalanches. 1 serious enough to really hurt.
dont take this shit lightly.
we may slag each other alot here, but nobody wants anyone to die!

[Sponge McBragg]

Today was one of the most solid snowpacks I have seen at Baker this year. Shows you how microclimate variations can override the large area analysis.

I love it when all the backcountry dudes are wringing their hands in the parking lot because of some alarm forcast while we are out ripping everything in sight, unaccompanied by the usual masses!

[Stikki]

I love it when all the backcountry dudes are wringing their hands in the parking lot because of some alarm forcast while we are out ripping everything in sight, unaccompanied by the usual masses!

I find this interesting in light of the fact that just a week ago people on this board were slagging the guys that died in the Crystal BC for not heeding warnings.

[hop]

Today was one of the most solid snowpacks I have seen at Baker this year. Shows you how microclimate variations can override the large area analysis. The Wednesday wet snow (paste) was set up sufficiently by the cold Thursday night temperatures that no way was skier activity going to influence layers below that Wednesday cap. You might happen to be ON a 7' slab when it broke, but no way was skier activity going to break it. It would (and did) take artillary to do that.

I love it when all the backcountry dudes are wringing their hands in the parking lot because of some alarm forcast while we are out ripping everything in sight, unaccompanied by the usual masses!

So was that you out in the Blueberry Chutes and/or Herman today? Looked tasty!

[BenWA]

Today was one of the most solid snowpacks I have seen at Baker this year.

What is the basis of your assessment? Did you dig pits? If so, where? How deep? And how many?

I don't know the first thing about you or your stability assessment knowledge, experience, and intuition, so I'm not one to judge you, but writing off the NWAC reports as alarmist and ignoring the concern expressed in dozens of geographically widespread field reports sounds to me like fool's errand. Local topographic and microclimate variability can lead one astray to false negative field tests just as easily as it can to false positives.

[altasnob]

Maybe all the new snow did bond well at Baker but anytime a place gets 78 Inches in 7 days I'm going to be uber careful.

http://www.mtbaker.us/

[BakerBunny]

... Local topographic and microclimate variability can lead one astray to false negative field tests just as easily as it can to false positives.

The large scale forcast gives you an indication of what to look for in your assessments, as does knowledge of the snowpack and compulsive following of the snowfall, wind and temperature changes. But you simply have to make your decisions on the basis of what you find on the site. If you know only what you read on the Internet and lack the ability to modify that knowledge on the basis of what you find on site, you will never be able to safely ski on a day which is sketchy in many places but not where you are at the time. What's worse, you will never be able to recognize dangerous conditions that you were not alerted to by the Internet.

As for pits, they are good for many things, but not for assessing the ability of a cap layer to support a skier. A thousand pole pokes in every conceivable aspect will give you better information than a pit test on an isolated column which eliminates the cap effect.

One good test is to do two Rutchblock tests -- one backcut and one without backcutting your block. This will give you some idea of the supportive strength of a cap layer.

[Hugh Conway]

and then there's the simple matter that you could ski dangerous conditions numerous times and they just didn't release for you < shrug >

[BakerBunny]

and then there's the simple matter that you could ski dangerous conditions numerous times and they just didn't release for you < shrug >

From the traditional avi avoidance perspective of how to tour safely, backcountry downhill skiers all ski "dangerous conditions" (= fresh snow on slopes steeper than 30 degrees) pretty well constantly. The trick is to do so safely. If you depend on luck, you will not be able to do this 80 or so days a year for fifty years. Your assessments cannot end in a guess if you want a streak like that to continue.

Anyways, you are right in expressing your scepticism. I was not advising folks to do anything and I would not advise folks to ski something because I say it is safe. Learn to make your own assessments and ski conservatively as you learn. When you have done enough assessments, dug enough pits, cut enough slopes to feel justifiably confident, you will know when you are ready to increase your exposure.

[Lani]

When you have done enough assessments, dug enough pits, cut enough slopes to feel justifiably confident, you will know when you are ready to increase your exposure.

Nobody listen to this viejo loco!

I've always wanted to increase my exposure. I just flashed this undergrad in the quad.

YOU'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!

[Hugh Conway]

From the traditional avi avoidance perspective of how to tour safely, backcountry downhill skiers all ski "dangerous conditions" (= fresh snow on slopes steeper than 30 degrees) pretty well constantly. The trick is to do so safely. If you depend on luck, you will not be able to do this 80 or so days a year for fifty years. Your assessments cannot end in a guess if you want a streak like that to continue.

Anyways, you are right in expressing your scepticism. I was not advising folks to do anything and I would not advise folks to ski something because I say it is safe. Learn to make your own assessments and ski conservatively as you learn. When you have done enough assessments, dug enough pits, cut enough slopes to feel justifiably confident, you will know when you are ready to increase your exposure.

eh, it wasn't so much skepticism about you or your abilities (I don't know you, how you ski, your protocols, and I only slightly know where you ski) more my thoughts on the probabilistic nature of avalanches - it's entirely possible for someone with a 99.9&#37; prediction rate to die on year 5 of their BC ski career or year 55

[vanisle]

coupla guys here on the island ripped one out down to the two week old
rain crust yesterday.Ragdolled through some trees and lost a pontoon but luckily no one hurt.Conditions on the coast are much different than what were used to,this isnt the bomber maritime snowpack were so accustomed to and care needs to be taken..