Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[billyk]

Any thoughts on Telluride opening up more terrain in the next couple weeks? Seems like they got dumped on, but only ~400 acres open? Are they just waiting to do avalanche work, or is the coverage still too thin?

And now they are saying they are opening Prospect Bowl on Wednesday, and more terrain on Thursday. I'm feeling a whole lot better about this trip.

[galibier_numero_un]

Anybody have any inside word on when zuma is going to open? Tomorrow? Wednesday?

I'm guessing no earlier than Wednesday, but WTF do I know? The last two blog updates have been discussing it. This afternoon's update is here: http://arapahoebasin.blogspot.com/20...zuma-bowl.html

... Thom

[WTF is dat]

Al will announce it the day before - guaranteed

[cravenmorhead]

Yeah I saw those professor lines on Sunday. Not sure what people are thinking.

[summit]

Yeah I saw those professor lines on Sunday. Not sure what people are thinking.

it is sadly normal

ride pali chair looking over your shoulder and you'll see some stupid human tricks right before your eyes. do it enough and you are guaranteed to see someone take a ride. the only reason that injuries are rarer there is that CDOT shoots Prof enough to hopefully make sure it doesn't go to the road... or Molly Hogan

[The SnowShow]

Gotta remember your avy gear when adventuring anywhere near Molly Hogan Bowl. Careful out there.

[Kinnikinnick]

it is sadly normal

ride pali chair looking over your shoulder and you'll see some stupid human tricks right before your eyes. do it enough and you are guaranteed to see someone take a ride. the only reason that injuries are rarer there is that CDOT shoots Prof enough to hopefully make sure it doesn't go to the road... or Molly Hogan

Yeah - I hiked at Loveland last Sunday and was amazed people were heading up to the Prof.

One of the things that I feel that we can learn is that perhaps its just not as dangerous as we have supposed all these years. People bang the Professor after every storm. People center punch Red Lady bowl - maybe the trigger something but most of the time even if they do its AOK

[hatchgreenchile]

One of the things that I feel that we can learn is that perhaps its just not as dangerous as we have supposed all these years. People bang the Professor after every storm. People center punch Red Lady bowl - maybe the trigger something but most of the time even if they do its AOK

From my recollection of Staying Alive..." and some of the numbers, 95% of slopes are stable at any given time. That's without any training or knowledge. Step on a random slope steep enough to slide and 19/20 times, you're fine (Postive reinforcement 101!)

With some training, you can quickly improve that 95%. Maybe closer to 99% safe with AVI-1 or equivelant (that's just a guess?) Experts would be expected to make the right decision on avalanche terrain 99.9% of the time.

[summit]

Yeah - I hiked at Loveland last Sunday and was amazed people were heading up to the Prof.

One of the things that I feel that we can learn is that perhaps its just not as dangerous as we have supposed all these years. People bang the Professor after every storm. People center punch Red Lady bowl - maybe the trigger something but most of the time even if they do its AOK

It would be easy to fall into that mental trap. We see people do stupid shit all the time and get away with it most of the time. I'd wager a half dozen, maybe a dozen, get caught on Prof a year and probably 1 or more loses several ski days or weeks or needs a knee surgery and lose their season (and job?) or breaks their gear. Is that really low consequence? I don't think so. How many "bad decision" tracks do you need to get to that consequence? I'd bet 100?

We don't do things that are 5% likely to fuck you up. That is a mortality rate for summiting Mt Everest!

Even 0.1% is too high. After 1000 days 0.1% approaches certainty!

We would like to ski 1000 ski days without dying or being seriously injured. We cannot evaluate risk by watching a few lucky outcomes to poor decisions.

It would be like deciding you aren't going to ski a slope, then seeing tracks and saying "well it didn't slide on them, let's schralp the gnar gnar."

Don't fall for that trap.

[cravenmorhead]

Well put Summit.

I was re-watching Meru a while back (if you haven't seen it, do so, it's excellent) and Jon Krakauer has a nice line it in that stuck with me. I'm paraphrasing, but it was basically: The rewards of mountain climbing are immense, so long as you come back alive. If you die mountain climbing, it's not worth it and you've done a stupid thing.

Same can be said for backcountry skiing. The rewards are great but they're not worth getting killed over.

[Name Redacted]

Having learned the backcountry around Summit county by trial and error over the last 20 years, I have probably put in those tracks that people talk about many times. I know a few people who still do it some who are convinced that they just know so much better than everyone. Thankfully, I have retired from doing that kind of stuff, and I got it out of the way before the prevalence of social media.

[BFD]

i dialed it back yesterday. went back to a line i skied thursday and saw it ran in this past storm. Instead of hitting the fresh opted for the bed surface. good thing it had about 6 inches of fresh. see the forecasters are going moderate here tomorrow I think I will take the Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features warning serious.

[Danno]

went back to a line i skied thursday and saw it ran in this past storm.

that'll sober you up right quick.

[MakersTeleMark]

Gotta remember your avy gear when adventuring anywhere near Molly Hogan Bowl. Careful out there.

This is why the corporate safety police are replacing our beloved isolated playground.

[SkiBall]

Staying inbounds...barely.

[The SnowShow]

Ha, I was right there too

[Hott Butt Mud]

Saturday (Christmas Eve) and Sunday (Christmas Day): Confidence is increasing that a significant storm will impact the area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which has the potential to bring significant snow accumulation to the mountains with the San Juans being the most favored for the higher snowfall amounts. This will have an impact to holiday travel.

The valleys are the tricky bit due to the warmer air ahead of the cold front on Saturday and the timing of the cold front and arrival of colder air.

Snowfall should begin in the mountains late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon, depending on which model is correct, with any precipitation that falls in the valleys being rain or a rain/snow mix.

The EC, however, pushes the cold front and subsequent cold air through late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This could mean the difference between some valleys waking up to a White Christmas or a rain/snow mix.

....................................

[RonMexico]

Saw this clip on Unofficial. I'm not one to armchair quarterback, but fuck me - this is horrendous.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/1...lmed-by-friend

Clear recent natural activity. Partner not waiting in a safe location. If this had stepped down to the ground the results could have been very different.

Any time you get caught in a slide - no matter how small - you made a really bad fucking decision and seriously need to reevaluate your decision making process. And yet there's people telling him how awesome it is on his social media feed so he'll probably go out there and do it all over again. [rant over]

[SkiBall]

J F C

[MakersTeleMark]

Saw this clip on Unofficial. I'm not one to armchair quarterback, but fuck me - this is horrendous.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/1...lmed-by-friend

Clear recent natural activity. Partner not waiting in a safe location. If this had stepped down to the ground the results could have been very different.

Any time you get caught in a slide - no matter how small - you made a really bad fucking decision and seriously need to reevaluate your decision making process. And yet there's people telling him how awesome it is on his social media feed so he'll probably go out there and do it all over again. [rant over]

Ronnie:

This is a weather thread. Get with it and JUSFcubed.

[The SnowShow]

Saw this clip on Unofficial. I'm not one to armchair quarterback, but fuck me - this is horrendous.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/1...lmed-by-friend

Clear recent natural activity. Partner not waiting in a safe location. If this had stepped down to the ground the results could have been very different.

Any time you get caught in a slide - no matter how small - you made a really bad fucking decision and seriously need to reevaluate your decision making process. And yet there's people telling him how awesome it is on his social media feed so he'll probably go out there and do it all over again. [rant over]

Wow that is amazing. How does someone ski that slope with a slide 100' away?!

[MakersTeleMark]

Weather or not, you can't hide...

[smmokan]

At least his business got a free plug.

[skiingislife]

Saw this clip on Unofficial. I'm not one to armchair quarterback, but fuck me - this is horrendous.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/1...lmed-by-friend

Ha! Saw those idiots leaving the parking lot when I pulled up. That little headwall slides every year. He was lucky it didn't go bigger.

Couple shots from later that afternoon.

Looking south. How many slides can you spot?


Didn't think it was rider triggered because his track had mostly filled in.

[hatchgreenchile]

Don't worry, it was just a #minislab.