Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**montanaskier** · 01-01-2012, 01:41 PM

Rontele and Funken hinted last week at an overall trend in the right direction. That trend has continued so we'll see what happens. This week will be a great one to ride your bike then the next "storm" won't amount to much of anything. BUT...maybe, just maybe, the following week will be better.

**montanaskier** · 01-01-2012, 04:48 PM

I give up...the 8-14 today looks like dogshit again.

**Rontele** · 01-01-2012, 05:03 PM

Dude. You can't look at a weekend 6-10 or 8-14 day as those forecasts are just the computer models running wild and no forecaster input. The trend is still there.

**montanaskier** · 01-01-2012, 05:06 PM

so they just run those alone without input from any human?

**Rontele** · 01-01-2012, 05:10 PM

Yup. The inputs just run and there is no forecaster to disregard any out of line model runs. It's ok to look at really high level trends, but I put no stock into it. Wait until tomorrow.

**BDKeg** · 01-01-2012, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

so they just run those alone without input from any human?

why would there be any human input? The models are just computer programs using past historical data and current surface/atmospheric data to make a forecast. Regardless, a very complicated system that has an even hard time giving an accurate 1-4 day forecast.

**montanaskier** · 01-01-2012, 06:37 PM

every forecast has human input. The models spit out what they think but the human input adjust it based on what they know for an area, a time frame, historical info, etc...

Weather is fascinating.

**Like a Boss** · 01-01-2012, 07:41 PM

All I know is we are all bending over for human input this godforsaken season.

**gratzo** · 01-02-2012, 10:29 AM

Just got back to Boulder last night, and here's what I know (and don't know):

- This week will be warm and snowless through Thursday.

- A storm (or two) will hit Colorado Friday and Saturday. Exactly how they pan out is 100% uncertain at this time. They could brush the north and eastern mountains. The first one could stay north and east and the second one could try to do the cut-off thing south and west of Colorado. Or both storms could compromise and actually move across the state with decent snow. At best I don't think any location will see more than 8-10", but snow is welcome. Hopefully the models come more in line by Tue/Wed. My gut says that Aspen on north and east will see some snow.

- I know this is a Colorado thread, but I gotta say that I am impressed with the Tetons. Skied Jackson Hole Thu/Fri, Grand Targhee on Sat, and Teton Pass backcountry on Sunday. Jackson Hole was VERY crowded, but that's par for the course during this week. Grand Targhee is a hero mountain. Think about wide open areas between 30-35 degrees (i.e. back bowls of Vail). Even on a crowded day it's not that crowded. Freakin fun. Plus, we did their Early Tracks program which gets you on the lift at 8am, 1hr before everyone else. You're guided by ski instructors, but everyone ripped so it wasn't really stop and go and annoying. In fact, it was awesome...very few stops and we probably got 5-6 untracked runs before the lifts opened. Then found stashes all day long until 3:45. An exhausting and awesome day. If you go before a storm, find a deal and stay at the resort the night before...beats driving over from Jackson in the AM plus I think there's a discount for Early Tracks if you stay there. It's a powder chaser's dream.

- Teton Pass was awesome and just my kind of backcountry - efficient. I don't love 5-6 mile gradual uphill skins, but happy to boot pack 45 minutes up 1,500ft vert to ski untracked 2,000ft of constant pitch back to the road. Super fun.

Sorry to take over the thread with talk of Wyoming, but met a ton of Colorado folks that went up for the long weekend, and it was fun. If you can time the driving to miss the storms, the 8 hour drive from the Front Range really isn't that band. That said, the drive would be / is awful in wind and snow on I-80 and Rt. 191.

Long range forecast for Colorado? Of course the 15 day model forecast looks "promising", but as others said, it's looked promising for the last 8 weeks. I don't trust it...one storm at a time.

JOEL

**JoeStrummer** · 01-02-2012, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Sorry to take over the thread with talk of Wyoming, but met a ton of Colorado folks that went up for the long weekend, and it was fun. If you can time the driving to miss the storms, the 8 hour drive from the Front Range really isn't that band. That said, the drive would be / is awful in wind and snow on I-80 and Rt. 191.
JOEL

Why are you letting these crybaby poofs know a couple tanks of gas can transport them away from their useless and endlessly bleak stoke-free self-pitying?

**Poop~Ghost** · 01-02-2012, 01:18 PM

Jackson is Denver's new East Vail.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 01-02-2012, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by JoeStrummer

Why are you letting these crybaby poofs know a couple tanks of gas can transport them away from their useless and endlessly bleak stoke-free self-pitying?

Damn, so glad I was able to read gratzo's post before he edits it. Can't believe I never realized there was skiing outside of Colorado.

**Rontele** · 01-02-2012, 04:32 PM

Montanaskier, look at today's 8 to 14 day. Trending in the right direction.

**Blizzard_of_Oz** · 01-02-2012, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Montanaskier, look at today's 8 to 14 day. Trending in the right direction.

From total poop to just below average poop ... this lack of snow is getting old

Regarding a raw model forecast vs. a human forecast: both exist, be sure you know which you're looking at. For these longer range forecasts, see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ay/fxus06.html (scoll down for 8-14day) for an idea of which models went into it and what their weights may be. 8 days is a long way off.
If this means anything to you, Nth Hemi 500hPa anomaly correlations for GFS at 1 & 2 day is above 0.97, 8 days is ~0.5, by day 14 it's down to 0.15 or so. Not huge skill.

"FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS."

**funkendrenchman** · 01-02-2012, 05:10 PM

Thinking about getting a gym membership.....

**Blizzard_of_Oz** · 01-02-2012, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Thinking about getting a gym membership.....

Desperate times call for desperate measures ....

**montanaskier** · 01-02-2012, 05:53 PM

le sigh.....at least it isn't total brown as it has been. Be what it'll be at this point.

after the weekend:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

**BDKeg** · 01-02-2012, 06:58 PM

it will snow in April right as all the ski areas close up...best have those touring skis waxed up

**funkendrenchman** · 01-02-2012, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by BDKeg

it will snow in April right as all the ski areas close up...best have those touring skis waxed up

If it's not gonna snow, it better be an early mtn bike season.

**zartagen** · 01-02-2012, 07:36 PM

I wore shorts today.

I'm thinking about fixing up my mountain bike for a moab trip.

**NAKsloChinoMalo** · 01-02-2012, 10:50 PM

sounds like I should not bring my ski gears with me this week for my business trip.

**Shredhead** · 01-03-2012, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Thinking about getting a gym membership.....

Hanle's joining me Friday for a 9 day powder safari in BC. We got room?

**smmokan** · 01-03-2012, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by zartagen

I wore shorts today.

I'm thinking about fixing up my mountain bike for a moab trip.

Nothing to see in Moab.

**The SnowShow** · 01-03-2012, 11:06 AM

Is this dry warm weather a result of climate change and a sign of things to come in the next decades?

**montanaskier** · 01-03-2012, 11:16 AM

^^^^ nah, just averages. 3 of the last 4 have been really good winters and last year was all time. Shit has to even out so we get a shitter this year. Gonna make for a long summer however.