Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**Rontele** · 12-09-2009, 08:54 PM

Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark

Your butthurt about your facet trip I believe started it off. Have you booked a bunk with Gratzo? And your inexperience is telling- only applies to current clients.

I thought he's your client.

**montanaskier** · 12-09-2009, 10:20 PM

was....no legal matters pending.

**gratzo** · 12-09-2009, 10:53 PM

I'm not sure who I'm sleeping with, so I'll just talk weather.

Rontele - you're right. At this point, the Sunday/Monday storm is looking more like an equal opportunity storm for most mountains rather than focusing on the south. It's still 3.5 days away, but if tonight's ( Dec 10th 00z ) model is correct, I would expect low double digits for most mountains (except Summit Co. and east) by the Monday AM report.

**funkendrenchman** · 12-09-2009, 11:22 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

It's still 3.5 days away, but if tonight's ( Dec 10th 00z ) model is correct, I would expect low double digits for most mountains (except Summit Co. and east) by the Monday AM report.

Let's hope... that's about how much we need to get a lot more open.

**Shredhead** · 12-10-2009, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Let's hope... that's about how much we need to get a lot more open.

I'm coming in tomorrow night. Any word on what Highlands is looking like or the likely hood of more terrain on Aspen or Snowmass?

**Puffin** · 12-10-2009, 10:59 AM

vail just went from ~500 acres to over 1K.

Chair 11 is opening today at 11:00am lots of windloading in the northeast bowl this week. should make for some fun turns to those who get there first....

**FLskibum** · 12-10-2009, 12:37 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

I would expect low double digits for most mountains (except Summit Co. and east) by the Monday AM report.

Props for not including Summit Co. in your forecast, cause we all know its not gonna snow here... I just hate reading forecasts that call for decent snow and then we get nothing, at least this way I won't get my hopes up.

**cmsummit** · 12-10-2009, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by FLskibum

I just hate reading forecasts that call for decent snow and then we get nothing,

It would be interesting to compare forecasted snow amounts to what we've actually received this year. I think Breck is claiming 52" so far. I wonder what snowfall amount all those blown NOAA point forecasts would've added up to? Think I'm gonna start keeping a tally, just for the hell of it.

**snowswine** · 12-10-2009, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

It would be interesting to compare forecasted snow amounts to what we've actually received this year. I think Breck is claiming 52" so far. I wonder what snowfall amount all those blown NOAA point forecasts would've added up to? Think I'm gonna start keeping a tally, just for the hell of it.

Maybe Vail Resorts should just stop measuring and tally their numbers from the NOAA forecast! Move over Utah there's, Your 500 inches is a laughable joke. We're kicking it at Keystone with 800 fucking inches! Sofa king sick!

**funkendrenchman** · 12-10-2009, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by Shredhead

I'm coming in tomorrow night. Any word on what Highlands is looking like or the likely hood of more terrain on Aspen or Snowmass?

G's, Deep Temerity, and some runs off of Steeplechase should be open, albeit tracked out from today's powder posse. Hopefully some snow will fall over the weekend to freshen it up. I would suspect High Alpine will open on Saturday at Snowmass. Ruthie's side will open on Ajax on Saturday.

**montanaskier** · 12-10-2009, 03:46 PM

20 degrees today and it feels like it is 60. Warm sun. Hope the weekend storm pans out, next week is SUNNY.

**Rontele** · 12-10-2009, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

20 degrees today and it feels like it is 60. Warm sun. Hope the weekend storm pans out, next week is SUNNY.

Sounds like this storm has a little bit more westerly component early-on before the main trough passes. Gratzo? Thinking when all is said and done high end advisory amounts.

gunit130 · 12-10-2009, 05:02 PM

Well Rontele, what's it gonna be? What's your official forecast for Friday - Sunday?

For the Fail area we'll see 1-3" this Friday night - Saturday morning. Saturday night - Sunday night we'll see 3-6".

Which means in all likely hood we'll end up with only 6" by Monday night with the way things have been going.

**Rontele** · 12-10-2009, 05:14 PM

I'd gander something in the 4-8 range with way things look now, but if the storm comes in a bit more from the west 5-10 or 6-12 would not be out of the realm of possibility.

**gratzo** · 12-10-2009, 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by FLskibum

Props for not including Summit Co. in your forecast, cause we all know its not gonna snow here... I just hate reading forecasts that call for decent snow and then we get nothing, at least this way I won't get my hopes up.

Yep - it's the sad truth. A problem for the National Weather Service is to accurately draw the snow totals on the maps that generate the point forecasts. It's a lot of work, and most of the focus is on the population centers. They are super busy with all their (too many) products...but still, it's almost always over forecast.

**gratzo** · 12-10-2009, 05:47 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

It would be interesting to compare forecasted snow amounts to what we've actually received this year. I think Breck is claiming 52" so far. I wonder what snowfall amount all those blown NOAA point forecasts would've added up to? Think I'm gonna start keeping a tally, just for the hell of it.

Please start keeping track! I try to save maps and forecasts when I can, but it's just too much to do all the time. I linked to a Vail point forecast for Mon/Tue in a previous post, which was very helpful (thanks, Rontele!).
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...p-snow-for-co/

**gratzo** · 12-10-2009, 05:59 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Sounds like this storm has a little bit more westerly component early-on before the main trough passes. Gratzo? Thinking when all is said and done high end advisory amounts.

Actually, I think more (if this thing verifies). Air is not too cold (-10C, 16F) at 10K (700mb), but that's the only thing not in our favor. Central mountains should do the best with 10-15" by Monday AM. If we can get some decent snow along and north of I-70 starting around noon on Sunday through Sunday night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-12" at Beaver Creek/Steamboat (and Vail if there's a bit more of a northerly component than due west) by Monday AM.

I'm writing a blog post tomorrow about taking Monday off. I think that day will be the best powder day of the next 10 days (though the models are hinting at continued moist, westerly flow through Tues, so Tues could be a surprise).

The big ridge predicted for next week is now being predicted to be weaker. I don't trust the models a week out, but it's a good trend.

I'm talking tonight at www.igniteboulder.com (15 presentations, 5 min each, 20 slides that auto-advance) about "When to call in sick for a powder day." Monday is the day.

**gratzo** · 12-10-2009, 06:00 PM

PS - wrap up of last storm here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...ut-be-careful/

(sorry for the barrage of posts)

**Chris Knight** · 12-10-2009, 06:57 PM

Joel, love it, keep it coming.
I may in fact take Monday off and I'll be sure to let you know if it's good.

**funkendrenchman** · 12-10-2009, 07:02 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

The big ridge predicted for next week is now being predicted to be weaker. I don't trust the models a week out, but it's a good trend.

... and cooler from what I can tell.

**^^^** · 12-10-2009, 08:38 PM

Gratzo is the man. Thanks for all you do. I'm digging the education and the accurate forecasts. You need to be getting paid to do this stuff.

**Rontele** · 12-10-2009, 10:14 PM

Originally Posted by ^^^

Gratzo is the man. Thanks for all you do. I'm digging the education and the accurate forecasts. You need to be getting paid to do this stuff.

He's certainly been more accurate than the hacks at NOAA

**smmokan** · 12-10-2009, 10:55 PM

Gratzo, glad you decided to join and contribute to TGR. I got your emails last winter through Caleb, and its cool what you've done with them. Keep it up...