Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**montanaskier** · 04-13-2009, 04:54 PM

still abit out and temps appear to be in question a little BUT.....

CURRENT MODELS ARE PRODUCING UP TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MTNS BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

**Rontele** · 04-14-2009, 06:45 AM

^^^^The 12z GFS QPF this morning is painting an insane amount of precipitable water for the Front Range and eastern plains. Upwards of 3 inches.

**Blurred** · 04-14-2009, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

still abit out and temps appear to be in question a little BUT.....

CURRENT MODELS ARE PRODUCING UP TO 2
FEET OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MTNS BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

Please keep us updated man. Vail this Spring has been amazing. Think they're at 420 inches right now. Means EV is probably at 600.

**funkendrenchman** · 04-14-2009, 03:45 PM

Who's ready for another dust layer? Does look like snow totals will be pretty significant though.

Z · 04-14-2009, 08:44 PM

Originally Posted by Blurred

Please keep us updated man. Vail this Spring has been amazing. Think they're at 420 inches right now. Means EV is probably at 600.

Man a Loveland powday would be nice. Hit me up if yer skiing, im hanging in Denver for a bit.

**montanaskier** · 04-15-2009, 06:32 AM

12-20 inches sounds pretty good. Most of the strong stuff looks like Wed night and Thurs.

**Rontele** · 04-15-2009, 07:02 AM

Forecasting now 18-36 inches from the Divide east into the foothills, with 10-20 in the metro area. Temps will be an issue and could result in primiarly rain for down here (I won't complain). On the other hand, some of the model runs have H7 winds at 50kts from the east. If this verifies (and I don't think it will because the low seems to fill in and weaken over time), this storm will be bigger than the 2003 "storm of the century".

**Trainwreck** · 04-15-2009, 07:14 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Forecasting now 18-36 inches from the Divide east into the foothills, with 10-20 in the metro area. Temps will be an issue and could result in primiarly rain for down here (I won't complain). On the other hand, some of the model runs have H7 winds at 50kts from the east. If this verifies (and I don't think it will because the low seems to fill in and weaken over time), this storm will be bigger than the 2003 "storm of the century".

2003, wasn't that the year we got 8 feet in the foothills?

**Rontele** · 04-15-2009, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by Trainwreck

2003, wasn't that the year we got 8 feet in the foothills?

Yup. 1234

**montanaskier** · 04-15-2009, 07:43 AM

it's a big storm to be sure....temps are slightly too warm for that much snow on the FR I think. Impressive forecast however.

**Gregger** · 04-15-2009, 08:35 AM

The models are showing QPF in the 1.5-3" range over the urban corridor and the foothills.. In a colder month, that could spell 40"+ for Denver.. They are also thinking that the rain/snow changeover on the plains could be early, thus the accum could be greater down here..Models are trending to a snowier storm each run, with the tracks all in line with each other.

The snow should be outstanding on Fri up across Summit and Eagle counties.. This thing is going to park in souther CO and spin strong and very deep upslope all the way up to the troposphere for 36 hours..

**smmokan** · 04-15-2009, 09:11 AM

I hope this hits hard.... and the wonderful and efficient CDOT workers are able to keep the roads open long enough for me to get up to LL or A-Basin.

**PowTrees** · 04-15-2009, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by smmokan

I hope this hits hard.... and the wonderful and efficient CDOT workers are able to keep the roads open long enough for me to get up to LL or A-Basin.

If it should actually snow a foot, I say send all the CDOT workers over to keep Loveland Pass, the Eisenhower Tunnel, and the roads to Breck and Keystone open. Nobody will be upset if they don't take care of Vail Pass and it closes

**Rontele** · 04-15-2009, 09:25 AM

Originally Posted by Gregger

This thing is going to park in souther CO and spin strong and very deep upslope all the way up to the troposphere for 36 hours..

I thought that was the most impressive fact in this morning's forecast discussions.

**Blurred** · 04-15-2009, 09:38 AM

So when is this storm going to hit Vail, and what do accumulations/temps look like?

**volklpowdermaniac** · 04-15-2009, 11:06 AM

I would be very cautiously optimisitic. The forecasts are widely varied. Noaa has it at about 3-5 Wed night, 3-5 Thurs, 3-5 Frid.

Snowforecast has less. 1-3, 2-4, 2-4.

Where do these massive totals and storm of the century totals come from?

**Rontele** · 04-15-2009, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by volklpowdermaniac

I would be very cautiously optimisitic. The forecasts are widely varied. Noaa has it at about 3-5 Wed night, 3-5 Thurs, 3-5 Frid.

Snowforecast has less. 1-3, 2-4, 2-4.

Where do these massive totals and storm of the century totals come from?

Because it isn't for Vail, JONG.

**jon turner** · 04-15-2009, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Because it isn't for Vail, JONG.

Didn't you know Rontele is head of NOAA, and NCAR too, so if he says something about the weather, it must be true.

**Rontele** · 04-15-2009, 11:36 AM

Originally Posted by jon turner

Didn't you know Rontele is head of NOAA, and NCAR too, so if he says something about the weather, it must be true.

Damn straight, Holmes.

**Gregger** · 04-15-2009, 12:06 PM

Taken from an Accuweather discussion....

"Denver, by late Thursday could see heavy wet snow, with between one and two feet of fresh snow accumulating on the Mile High City by early Saturday. This will likely cause significant travel problems."

"As the storm moves out of Nevada into the western Rockies, the heavy snow will spread into Wyoming and Colorado. Several inches will dust the top of the peaks today and tomorrow. The real action for the Rockies will occur later Thursday into Friday, when the storm makes its way onto the Front Range, where Gulf moisture will feed into the storm, dumping heavy snow across the high western Plains and Front Range."

The numbers keep getting bigger, the air keeps looking like it will be a little cooler, and the models are getting slower.. All of this is the recipe for a BIG time April snow!

Keep your fingers crossed. We're in the 48 hour window of model accuracy!

**Deep Days** · 04-15-2009, 12:09 PM

Hmm. Looks like I'm staying up all night to finish my online classes tonight. BOOYAKASHA!

**skiandbike** · 04-15-2009, 12:27 PM

Chalk this up to limited experience with big upslopes, but how far west do these conditions generally extend? Does the hose turn off at the divide or gradually trend off past it? Berthoud vs Loveland? Trying to lay down a rough plan of attack for the weekend...

**pappag** · 04-15-2009, 12:49 PM

Winter storm watch in effect for FR.

**PowTrees** · 04-15-2009, 12:54 PM

My uneducated weather guess: it will snow more in Vail Wednesday night through Thursday, maybe Friday.

Some of the past "upslope" events, Vail gets for example a foot, then the storm moves east and the Front Range gets 2 or 3 feet. In an upslope event it could easily be cloudy, partly cloudy, or even mildly sunny in the Vail Area, whilst it hammers the Front Range with snow/rain.

I'd wonder though, the storm is starting from the South/Southwest. If the wind switches to the north Friday that would improve chances for Vail getting more precipitation? If it's an upslope event, the wind will start coming from the North East, East, or Southeast???

Rontele, Montana, anyone correct the weather newbie??

**Gregger** · 04-15-2009, 01:29 PM

Vail will get a good amount of snow before the storm crosses the divide, but as the storm stalls SE of the front range, the winds will be out of the NE/E and that pushes the moisture up against, and over the front range, hence the term, upslope.

The reason for the big numbers with this situation, is the extended, DEEEEEEEP upslope, due to that low stalling south of the area, stacking vertically(upper low/surface low combine), and tapping into the gulf moisture, which those NE/E winds will slam up against the front range.

The biggest numbers should be east of the divide, but the northern and north central mountains should still see a good dump.