Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**montanaskier** · 11-12-2009, 09:18 PM

temps will be a factor tonight for sure especially in valleys below 8k or 7500. Should be all snow tomorrow. Still think 4-8 for our zone on the valley floor.

**Cross** · 11-12-2009, 11:13 PM

Temps will be a huge factor, the Aspen Airport(8018') is at 46 right now. Moisture is starting to get enter the area but for now it will be rain.

**gratzo** · 11-12-2009, 11:29 PM

Temps are troublesome for sure, but they will go down soon for two reasons:

1) When rain/snow starts to fall into non-saturated air (i.e. into air that is somewhat dry), some of the rain/snow evaporates. Evaporation requires energy, which is taken out of the air. When the air loses energy, the temperature decreases. It's the same reason it's cold when you have wet skin and get out of the pool. The temperature to which the air will cool is called the Wet-bulb temperature. The Mesowest site shows the wet-bulb temperature for most sites (click on the station, then the button to the right of "temp"):http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/dro...=CO&rawsflag=3

Wet bulb temp for Aspen airport is in the mid 30s, with a real temp in the lower to mid 40s.

2) The cold front is coming through, slowly, later tonight and Friday. But this is still going to be a relatively warm storm...with the coldest air waiting until Sunday.

3) BONUS: Because I want snow.

4-8" around Vail sounds right or even might be generous unless the wind can get around to west-northwest. In this type of Southwest-Northeast storm, it seems that the Beav can do a bit better than Vail...but I'll defer to Montanaskier for that.

**funkendrenchman** · 11-12-2009, 11:36 PM

Originally Posted by Cross

Temps will be a huge factor, the Aspen Airport(8018') is at 46 right now. Moisture is starting to get enter the area but for now it will be rain.

Yup, raining right now. Not worried though...

**Cross** · 11-12-2009, 11:37 PM

Nothing wrong with warm wet snow coming in to give us a good base.

**Crampedon** · 11-13-2009, 01:37 AM

It's snowing at the tunnel, I can see it from Maui!

http://www.dickgilbert.com/eisenhowercdotcam.htm

**montanaskier** · 11-13-2009, 02:42 AM

no moisture at all yet in our valley. SW flow for now. I think we're still ok, 42 degrees.

**montanaskier** · 11-13-2009, 06:59 AM

front appears to have really slowed down and as advertised there is zero moisture ahead of the front. It appears to be moving slowly SE, hopefully that spells precip.

models have now backed off of totals a bit for our area. 4-8 is too heavy...1-3 or 2-4 is probably more accurate. I would still say that this will be a TOTAL as the Saturday system should have little if any impact on our zone.

**funkendrenchman** · 11-13-2009, 08:32 AM

Dumping in town now.

**montanaskier** · 11-13-2009, 08:45 AM

man this thing is slow moving. Still 41 degrees and acutally only partly cloudy out now. Come on cold front.

**shera** · 11-13-2009, 09:13 AM

From my house, I can see the tenmile is completely socked in and snowing. Also Buffalo. But not snowing on my balcony in Dillon valley.

**pappag** · 11-13-2009, 09:40 AM

Gratzo - thanks for the insight! It's more than appreciated, and it looks like your call on the Elks and Steamboat was fairly accurate.

**jon turner** · 11-13-2009, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Dumping in town now.

I was wondering. The Sawatch had some dark clouds over it this morning. It was snowing hard for about 30 minutes here, but the sun is now shining through the clouds. It looks like it should be starting back up soon.

**Rontele** · 11-13-2009, 10:05 AM

Gratzo's contributions to this thread are great

**funkendrenchman** · 11-13-2009, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by jon turner

I was wondering. The Sawatch had some dark clouds over it this morning. It was snowing hard for about 30 minutes here, but the sun is now shining through the clouds. It looks like it should be starting back up soon.

Well it was for a half hour. Had a tiny bit of sun, now it is starting up again.

**Gregger** · 11-13-2009, 10:09 AM

So the Sunday question is... A-basin, Loveland or Key? With this late Sat/Sun upslope storm setting up, I'm wondering if the heavy stuff will work all the way west to the divide or not...

**montanaskier** · 11-13-2009, 11:04 AM

Looks like areas north and west of GWS are getting the brunt so far. Sunny and 46 here currently. And yes Gratzo contributes good stuff...unlike my drivel.

**Cross** · 11-13-2009, 11:15 AM

Not much of a storm. Even where snow is falling it seems pretty light. Carbondale is all socked in with clouds but there is nothing really falling. To the north it is dark but the radar is still showing nothing.

Sunlight has been in clouds all morning and they have less than a inch of snow to show for it.

**RonMexico** · 11-13-2009, 11:36 AM

Are these upslope storms that stay West of the Divide a common early season occurance, or is this a pattern that could last through the entire season?

**pappag** · 11-13-2009, 11:49 AM

Forecast for Monarch is getting nutty now - roughly 6-12 today, 6-12 tomorrow, and some leftovers on Sunday.

**grskier** · 11-13-2009, 12:00 PM

The higher valleys and peaks look pretty well socked in, but definitely not much around town. It was raining when I went home from the Belly Up last night around 1:30. If that fell as snow we would have had ~4-6" already I'm thinking, which gives me some optimism about climbing up to get some turns around 11k tomorrow (fingers crossed)

**LaBelle23** · 11-13-2009, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by RonMexico

Are these upslope storms that stay West of the Divide a common early season occurance, or is this a pattern that could last through the entire season?

Let's hope it does for eldo's sake! I'm guessing when you say upslope though you mean east of the divide? Upslopes hit the east side hard, and usually don't get the west side much (we got almost 3 feet out of the Oct 27-29 storm). However, many years they are mainly early and later season occurances. 2 years ago we had one right before Christmas and another at new years that set us up for a great season, but what I've learned is the good upslope seasons are always very difficult to predict so just go with it.

With all that said we're in the clouds now outside of Nederland at 9K, no wind, and the flakes have started falling

**montanaskier** · 11-13-2009, 12:31 PM

still not a flake or drop here. At least it is a little cloudy out...but heights haven't lowered any. Temp is a toasy 46 degrees.

**volklpowdermaniac** · 11-13-2009, 12:35 PM

been waking up every couple hours to check outside (live on ski hill about a 1/4 mile from peak 8). A whole bunch of nothing. its been sunny 90% of the time, just finally went cloudy....

dud thus far.

lets bring on the breck jokes now.

**funkendrenchman** · 11-13-2009, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by grskier

The higher valleys and peaks look pretty well socked in, but definitely not much around town. It was raining when I went home from the Belly Up last night around 1:30. If that fell as snow we would have had ~4-6" already I'm thinking, which gives me some optimism about climbing up to get some turns around 11k tomorrow (fingers crossed)

The Mass got 4" up high overnight and probably a couple more today. I still think more is on the way.