Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[F.D.V.]

My thoughts=meh

You are going against almost any other model and forecast I have seen as of yet for these two storms, but, I will give you the benefit of doubt for now.

By the way, the models aren't doing too well (i.e. not very consistent) predicting the two upcoming storms. BUT, it looks like some good snows for much of the state on Thursday night through Friday afternoon, and again from about midday Saturday through Sunday afternoon.

The Thursday night > Friday storm could throw down about 0.75" of liquid (maybe 1" in lucky areas). The temperatures around 10k are a little warm for efficient snow production (-5C north, -2.5C south), so I would guess at ratios around 13:1 (snow:liquid) with this storm. That puts the favored areas at 8-12" - not too shabby. I think the winners could be Steamboat and the Elk mountains. Even after the cold front passes late Thursday night, I'm not confident that the winds will turn to the northwest. I think they'll stay west or just a shade south of west. This direction can be good for Steamboat and the Elks, and Beaver Creek, but is generally not so good for Vail, Summit Co., or the front range.

The Saturday > Sunday storm is much colder, with temperatures at 10k by Sunday morning between -10C to -15C. This could lead to more snow with less moisture. This storm could be similar to the halloween storm of two weeks ago - hit or miss in the mountains west of the divide (a few inches to maybe 12"+), and lots of snow on the east side of the divide and the plains. The models are still not handling this storm very well (big differences between the different models and with each new 'run' of the model every 6 or 12 hours), but I would image that they will trend to make this storm a little stronger and further south.

Thoughts? I'll write this up here later on tonight with some graphics: www.coloradopowderforecast.com

[stupendous man]

I disagree with the every winter is the same mode. I moved to CO in 1997. Since then, I think that the climate has shifted seasons. November-December have replaced March-April as the big snow months. If the jet tracks right, CO can have a big year, with rap-around storms from the gulf and moisture from the south and the north. If the PNW has a big year, CO generally doesn't.

In general, winter is getting shorter in CO.

Edit: Page top, bitches

[^^^]

Since we all have some weather nerd in us, what kind of information or website would you really like to see on the www's to help find the good snow? Are the current sites good enough (CAIC, NWS, model data sites...)?

As a meteorologist who loves snow and deep stashes, I started up a weekly weather report for Colorado that is entertaining, educational, and hopefully pretty accurate. The report used to be just an email, but now I am putting them online here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/ I kept track of my accuracy from 2008-2009, available here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/keep-me-honest/ Please sign up for the email on the right side of the page.

There are a lot of folks on this forum that are amazingly knowledgeable about weather and I a learn a ton here almost everyday. Just trying to figure out how to develop a website that would provide the weather & snow info we need so we know when to pack the snorkel!

To be quite honest, your weekly emails/website and the CAIC forecast are the only places I look to in the winter for weather. All of the others are more often inaccurate and/or misleading. I am digging the format of your weekly weather reports as you just don't say "Well, there's a 22% chance of light snow somewhere in Colorado, with a chance of anywhere from 2"-22" over the next couple of days....blah blah blah...", but instead you try to pinpoint the forecasts for specific ski zones, explain why the weather is happening the way it is, and keep it skier specific.

I dig the education you provide in your weekly emails too. You don't use too much weather nerd language, which is good for those of us who don't have a degree in advanced meteorology. That's what frustrates me about NWS/NOAA and some other weather sites, is that they don't dumb down the language and discussions about why weather is happening the way it is.

Some cool things I would personally like to see on your site:

1. Quick link to webcams that are relevant to towns/ski areas/zones we ski.
2. Setup a spotter system where spotter's report total snowfall from local backcountry spots/non-resort snow depths. Basically an extension of SNOTEL for more areas.
3. Aerial photos of mountain ranges every couple of weeks. I know there's a pilot somewhere out there who could snap some photos during his/her flight over the mountains of Colorado. This is wishing a lot, but I know it could be done.
4. More historical weather data from the various mountain zones.
5. Keep the education coming! This stuff is good.
6. More photos
7. Allow for more visitor/user discussion on the forecasts. It would be cool if folks could add in snow reports, talk about forecasts, and discuss the weather nerdology of storms.

Great work though. I know a lot of the above is a wish list that is kind of a stretch, but just wanted to throw it out there.

[Spyplane]

To be quite honest, your weekly emails/website and the CAIC forecast are the only places I look to in the winter for weather. All of the others are more often inaccurate and/or misleading. I am digging the format of your weekly weather reports as you just don't say "Well, there's a 22% chance of light snow somewhere in Colorado, with a chance of anywhere from 2"-22" over the next couple of days....blah blah blah...", but instead you try to pinpoint the forecasts for specific ski zones, explain why the weather is happening the way it is, and keep it skier specific.

I dig the education you provide in your weekly emails too. You don't use too much weather nerd language, which is good for those of us who don't have a degree in advanced meteorology. That's what frustrates me about NWS/NOAA and some other weather sites, is that they don't dumb down the language and discussions about why weather is happening the way it is.

Some cool things I would personally like to see on your site:

1. Quick link to webcams that are relevant to towns/ski areas/zones we ski.
2. Setup a spotter system where spotter's report total snowfall from local backcountry spots/non-resort snow depths. Basically an extension of SNOTEL for more areas.
3. Aerial photos of mountain ranges every couple of weeks. I know there's a pilot somewhere out there who could snap some photos during his/her flight over the mountains of Colorado. This is wishing a lot, but I know it could be done.
4. More historical weather data from the various mountain zones.
5. Keep the education coming! This stuff is good.
6. More photos
7. Allow for more visitor/user discussion on the forecasts. It would be cool if folks could add in snow reports, talk about forecasts, and discuss the weather nerdology of storms.

Great work though. I know a lot of the above is a wish list that is kind of a stretch, but just wanted to throw it out there.

About yoru spotter idea, I love it. When I was in San Diego, I worked for a surf website and I pretty much just had to scope the surf out every morning at Windansea, La Jolla on my way to work. I bet there would be some people on this forum who live in Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, etc., etc. that would be in.

[^^^]

About yoru spotter idea, I love it. When I was in San Diego, I worked for a surf website and I pretty much just had to scope the surf out every morning at Windansea, La Jolla on my way to work. I bet there would be some people on this forum who live in Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, etc., etc. that would be in.

It really wouldn't take that much effort to get it going. There are enough folks on this forum alone to where we could have a pretty decent widespread spotter program going. Some travel through a couple mountain zones to get to work, others live in unique mountain zones, and some ski 4-7 days a week in various zones. Something as simple as: new snowfall, wind speed (none, light, moderate, heavy), wind direction, snow type (blower, moderate, heavy) would suffice.

[Spyplane]

It really wouldn't take that much effort to get it going. There are enough folks on this forum alone to where we could have a pretty decent widespread spotter program going. Some travel through a couple mountain zones to get to work, others live in unique mountain zones, and some ski 4-7 days a week in various zones. Something as simple as: new snowfall, wind speed (none, light, moderate, heavy), wind direction, snow type (blower, moderate, heavy) would suffice.

Yeah, it would be easy. I just txt'd in my report every morning to a central number. It would be free to receive the txt's if someone just set up a google voice number.

[Rontele]

Good conversation and insight by some folks here. Interestingly, the past two years have had reasonably dry falls. We go to Eiseman the same time every year (second weekend in December). Last two years we have been joking about driving up to the hut given the lack of snow only for it to unleash before we got there.

In sum, it is still fall. Patterns shift and evolve over longer periods of time. And like ^^^ said, we generally end up with average amounts in our snowpack. Thus, the less that falls now, the more it will fall alter.

[Rontele]

I'll also add that we won't know things are dire until montanaskier posts some butthurt emo angst about the lack of snow on the ski/snowboard forum

[funkendrenchman]

Right on cue....

COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019-121130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0022.091113T0100Z-091114T0700Z/
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBINE...TOPONAS...SKYWAY...ASPEN...
VAIL...SNOWMASS...CRESTED BUTTE...TAYLOR PARK...MARBLE...BUFORD...
TRAPPERS LAKE...OURAY...TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY...SILVERTON...
RICO...HESPERUS
342 PM MST WED NOV 11 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE FOOT ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.

[pappag]

Here's some historical snowfall to argue yourself into thinking this season sucks already (* = El Nino year):

Vail
08/09 429
07/08 429
06/07 347*
05/06 398
04/05 208* (Dec. to March)
03/04 189 (Dec. to March)
02/03 397*
01/02 266
97/98 339*

Copper
08/09 320
07/08 309
06/07 281*
05/06 363
04/05 191* (Dec. to March)
03/04 148 (Dec. to March)
02/03 387*
01/02 247
97/98 278*

Breckenridge
08/09 297
07/08 332
06/07 286*
05/06 336
04/05 225* (Dec. to March)
03/04 179 (Dec. to March)
02/03 344*
01/02 163 (Dec. to March)
97/98 250*

Winter Park
08/09 377
07/08 382
06/07 324*
05/06 366
04/05 299*
03/04 269
02/03 407*
01/02 261
97/98 362*

Berthoud Pass
08/09
07/08 210 (Dec. to March)
06/07 267*
05/06 306
04/05
03/04 160 (Dec. to March)
02/03 357*
01/02 159 (Dec. to March)
97/98

Steamboat
08/09 469
07/08 509
06/07 355*
05/06 440
04/05 199* (Dec. to March)
03/04
02/03 246* (Dec. to March)
01/02 245 (Dec. to March)
97/98 243* (Dec. to March)

Crested Butte
08/09 315
07/08 422
06/07 118* (Dec. to March)
05/06 254
04/05 217* (Dec. to March)
03/04 164 (Dec. to March)
02/03 151* (Dec. to March)
01/02 124 (Dec. to March)
97/98 155* (Dec. to March)

Telluride
08/09 330
07/08 389
06/07 210* (Dec. to March)
05/06 212 (Dec. to March)
04/05 220* (Dec. to March)
03/04 221 (Dec. to March)
02/03 181* (Dec. to March)
01/02 141 (Dec. to March)
97/98 232* (Dec. to March)

Wolf Creek
08/09 411
07/08 463
06/07 426*
05/06 342
04/05 536*
03/04 273 (Dec. to March)
02/03 206* (Dec. to March)
01/02 164 (Dec. to March)
97/98 233* (Dec. to March)


Source: http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/

[montanaskier]

wow..01/02 sucked donkey balls. 124" in CB....that is silly.

No butt hurt anger from me Rontele....I'm too busy to ski a bunch right now and my knee isn't up to full on blower anyway. Today was day 6 on the WROD, by the time it really starts, I'll be ready.

[Rontele]

I tried to find the "anyone else starting to get worried?" thread that started it all. Could not find.

[PowTrees]

La Nina, gotta love her


(the only thing I'm allowed to say about 01/02 is that the 266" looks way better on paper than it did in person)

[smitchell333]

This season sucks so far. I think we're in big trouble.





















Well except for the 5000'+ of 24" of pow I skied on Saturday.

[montanaskier]

I tried to find the "anyone else starting to get worried?" thread that started it all. Could not find.

I never argued the fact that I once was a HUGE weather douche. I also don't aruge the fact that I am a current HUGE douche in other areas.

[goldenboy]

wow..01/02 sucked donkey balls. 124" in CB....that is silly.

I think it was more like 200", but either way it was still my best season ever.... because I was in Pemberton

[smitchell333]

For comparison here's the modeled snow depth on 11/11 from 2002 to 2009


2002




2003


2004



2005



2006



2007



2008



2009

[concretejungle]

wow..01/02 sucked donkey balls. 124" in CB....that is silly.

164" at WC and 159" at Berthoud are even more ridiculous. I mean we all know it doesn't snow in CB.

I vaguely remember that winter. I think I went climbing a lot.

[Crampedon]

Any opinion on Vail cranking the snow-generating machine?

http://www.theskichannel.com/news/sk...make-more-snow

Wonder where they are, one article said 2-12 miles away, very dependent on wind direction. Be odd if they machine worked great but the wind dumped all the snow on a highway pass then they have to clear it all!

[gratzo]

"Vail still claims that the cloud seeding produces 8 to 25 percent deeper snowfall than other Colorado ski areas"

I'd love to know how they come up with these numbers. 10% of an average 350" year is about 35". Spread over 20-30 storms per year, that's about 1-2" of "extra" snow per storm due to the seeding. With the inherent inaccuracy of measuring snow (let's face it...nature is a little crazy...snow doesn't fall in a perfect blanket), I'd say it would be hard to determine that an extra inch or two fell per storm due to cloud seeding.

I think Vail is in a good spot for snow, especially with mountain-top winds coming from the west north-west.

The media coverage (albeit spotty) is probably worth the $30k x 5mo = $150k even if the seeding doesn't do anything. "Look - we have the most snow! Come here with our $9x lift tickets..."

[montanaskier]

first storm on track for the northern and central zones....4-8 is still my best guess.

Second storm will benefit the south and front range with probably nothing from Steamboat down to Vail.

I like it when it snows!

[F.D.V.]

Stoke.

All you 303 motherfuckers best stay away from the San Juans this weekend. Dangerous driving conditions and all...

[PowTrees]

Just at the chance that it works, I'm all in for seeding clouds


imho on the snow making machine at Vail, Crank it up!!!

[Crampedon]

This looks promising-

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick....y=99&site=gjt

Anyone looking out the window to snow yet? (summit/Eagle)

[Cross]

Still waiting for things to get here. For one the temps are still too warm. Upper 30's and up all over western CO still.