Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[grskier]

We had hail at the house and rain in the valley... came in hard. Wind ripped a sheet of the outside table off.

[bamboocoreONLY]

2 inches of snow on top of a cm of ice this morning in Frisco.

[Rontele]

I wonder if we hit 1,000,000 views this season

[MakersTeleMark]

I wonder if Montanaskier hits 1,000,000 views this season

FIFY.

09876

[Rontele]

FIFY.

09876

I am still calling for a shitty season so long as Bama remains undefeated.

[Gregger]

Long range models are trying to deepen and close off an incoming trough next week over the great basin. Looking late week we should see a good shift away from the warm temps we'll have this next few days.

[Name Redacted]

I am still calling for a shitty season so long as Bama remains undefeated.

AKA the "Bama Omega High Curse of the Montanaskier".

[montanaskier]

had I known selling my soul worked so well, I would have done it a long time ago...but perhaps for a little more personal gain.

[RonMexico]

It is it me or does it feel like the same pattern as last year is setting up with storms staying well to our Northwest?

[cmsummit]

It is it me or does it feel like the same pattern as last year is setting up with storms staying well to our Northwest?

It's only October 18th!!! Really?

[Hott Butt Mud]

It is it me or does it feel like the same pattern as last year is setting up with storms staying well to our Northwest?

Dude, it's just you.

[bamboocoreONLY]

It is it me or does it feel like the same pattern as last year is setting up with storms staying well to our Northwest?

so far it's happening opposite of last year, which I am fine with.

it's just you, and nobody else.

[montanaskier]

super early still.....get back to me at Christmas if it's still dry and warm.

[RonMexico]

super early still.....get back to me at Christmas if it's still dry and warm.

Fair enough.

[homebrewd]

I am still calling for a shitty season so long as Bama remains undefeated.

Hopefully Johnny football can do something about said curse this weekend then.

[bean]

super early still.....get back to me at Christmas if it's still dry and warm.

[media310]

If you can get past the bad sentence structure and grammar you may enjoy or loathe the following story:

http://mtnweekly.com/global-warning-no-snow-35453

Earlier models were showing New Mexico, Arizona and Southern Colorado to be wet and cold things seemed to have changed..

its 80 degrees at the beach, water is unseasonably warm in the Pacific..

[pappag]

80 and sunny in Denver tomorrow... time to recruit some girls and revisit the Mile High Shore.

[montanaskier]

Hopefully Johnny football can do something about said curse this weekend then.

unless Manziel transferred to UT, then he gets to wait a few weeks

everything is showing warmer than average weather for the winter. If the precip is there (equal chance) then as long as it falls as snow and not rain we should be ok and better than last year at least.

[volklpowdermaniac]

let's go Tennessee right?

i mean that's pretty much the only way this shit ends?

i mean above average? how much warmer could it be. i feel like it's been 40s and up since march.

[The SnowShow]

Glad I tuned up my mtb...

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Lots of quoting of the CPC Seasonal Outlooks happen here.
I started to wonder what skill level these Seasonal Outlooks have. Hence :





(The stats are for month 1 of the 3 month forecast with 0.5 month lead time for 1995-2012 are computed by NOAA, I just plotted them.)
First panel is skill over the entire map (US region), second panel is skill for the area that is colored in a map, third panel is the % of total area that is shaded. Whole range of skill scores is light grey, inter-quartile range, thick black line is the median skill. 100% = perfect skill, -50% = worst possible. This is a measure of how much more skill above complete chance the CPC Outlook gives. Skill is not very high at all for precip while temps have a bit of skill - seasonal forecasts are a very difficult problem. Anyway, I hope that gives some perspective on the CPC maps.

Also, the CPC's are not from a numerical model (like the 0-14 day weather forecasts). The CFS (Climate Forecast System) is one of eight or nine tools used by the seasonal forecasters. If you want the raw CFS prediction it's available elsewhere e.g. last year's CFS forecast of DJF precip. And to address the common question, weather & seasonal forecasts are initial value problems where specifics such as individual storms or sequences matter (and long term statistics are built in already), a climate model is a boundary value problem where longer term statistics are the aim.

[montanaskier]

sunny and 65 yesterday and today. Looks like cooler weather this weekend but I don't think much if any snow will fall. Might see an inch or two but nothing big I don't think. At least it will be a little cooler.

[BDKeg]

sunny and 65 yesterday and today. Looks like cooler weather this weekend but I don't think much if any snow will fall. Might see an inch or two but nothing big I don't think. At least it will be a little cooler.

I say keep it warm/sunny/dry until late november...this weather is nice.

[Rontele]

Things seem to be phasing together for the upslope this week.