Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[capulin overdrive]

lots of talk about the new snow and powder fever. I know folks are going to be chomping at the bit to get into EV and other areas....just please be careful. I hate to sound like the mom of the board, but turn things down a bit this weekend and go with zero expectations. It'll snow more...just be careful folks.

Most of you will know where this pic was taken
Attachment 108123

One of my none mag buddies ducked the rope and skied that after jonging the Puma. First i couldn't beleave that didn't happen to him, and secondly couldn't beleave he didn't lose his ticket for it. It was pretty sketchy looking when he did it.

[garuda]

CAIC and fireweather are definitely bidding heavy on Steamboat.

[Crampedon]

Alright, my Jax plans appear to be getting foiled by the Hammer of the Gods. Steamboat it is! If they get 25 inches does that make for a 27 inch base?

YES! but there is 32"of rocks....

[Crampedon]

One of my none mag buddies ducked the rope and skied that after jonging the Puma. First i couldn't beleave that didn't happen to him, and secondly couldn't beleave he didn't lose his ticket for it. It was pretty sketchy looking when he did it.

He did what? dropped the platter and bombed dragons under a closure?

Hmmmm......

[pde20]

CAIC and fireweather are definitely bidding heavy on Steamboat.

And Indian peaks? Actually more so than anywhere else. Who knows, so long as someone in the state has a pow day.

[montanaskier]

33 degrees up here this morning but I think today will be the warmest day..at least I hope it will be. Not windy and no snow yet. Looks like Alta, Jackson, and Targhee did well yesterday.

[Neezer]

We're at 27.5 degrees in dillon with a few inches last night. My wife and I were going to head out to vail today, but it looks like breck might be the better choice for today.

[Hott Butt Mud]

Blizzard Warning dropped for West of divide now.

Are we looking for a NWS Winter Storm Warning coming soon?

[montanaskier]

about 25 degrees at 11k this morning and windy...not crazy windy but I'd say 20-25 sustained with some gusts to 35. Wind did a job on west and SW facing ridges.

[PowTrees]

Those radar images and future models must be looking like a DaVinci. Gratzo's predicting 10-15" overnight on Saturday!! It snowed a zillion inches last year and I don't ever remember seeing and overnight number more than 4-8". That's big expectations to live up to, but with any luck I'll beat ya to the chairlift

If it really snowed 10" or more all overnight, will there be anything open or safe enough to ski at Vail that's steep enough to even make turns??

[Hott Butt Mud]

Those radar images and future must be looking like a DaVinci. Gratzo's predicting 10-15" overnight on Saturday!!

If it really snowed 10" or more all overnight, will there be anything open or safe enough to ski at Vail that's steep enough to even make turns??

uhh, Snag Park haha

The gnar.

I'll just go ahead and throw this out there. People WILL be committing suicide if this storm doesn't produce. This thing better be on track!!!!

[JaytaeMoney]

If tomorrow morning the models are still on track for big Saturday night totals I am going to allow myself to freak out

[WTF is dat]

so just curious if eldora could potentially be any good sunday morning?

I know its lame and blah blah blah but I wont have my car this weekend to drive up I-70, so the idea of taking the bus up early on sunday is tempting.....

[edog80]

so just curious if eldora could potentially be any good sunday morning?

I know its lame and blah blah blah but I wont have my car this weekend to drive up I-70, so the idea of taking the bus up early on sunday is tempting.....

That's where I will be with my 7 year old, she is going to have to hang in there with Dad and enjoy the powder day. Eldora has a nice base right now and is skiing well.

[Crampedon]

If it really snowed 10" or more all overnight, will there be anything open or safe enough to ski at Vail that's steep enough to even make turns??

Pepi's at 3:45? wait, let me get a chair...

[gratzo]

Guys -

About the northern mountains getting a ton of snow yesterday and today, read this:
http://opensnow.com/blog/2012/01/com...kinda-awesome/

The punch line is that it won't happen, and I never predicted anything close to the totals that CAIC (and NWS) showed for the Steamboat area. Northern 1/2 of Colorado (Aspen on north) only gets big snow when the air gets colder (cold advection). Right now we have a ton of moisture, but no cold advection (even warming temps). The models go nuts in producing snow with lots of moisture and a strong wind hitting the mountains, but this never comes true for the northern 1/2 of the state. Never. The higher terrain above 11-12k can get a few inches (Breck, Loveland, Indian Peaks) in this type of pattern, but nothing more. Hope nobody got suckered by the forecast, or at least checked my site. I'm not always the most accurate, but I have gotten screwed by the models over the last few years in certain situations, and learned from the mistakes and incorporate that into my forecasts. I know it's temping to believe 20+" forecasts, but that never happens in the northern 1/2 of CO without colder air moving in.

As for this weekend, 10-15 is a ballsy 4 day forecast, but I can say that regardless of the amount overnight Saturday, Sunday AM will be the deepest day of the next 5 days. Tuesday AM could actually ski better than Sunday AM if enough snow comes Monday night because it'll sit on a softer base, but that's a little far out. Basically, I see at least 4-6 hours of heavy snow from 8pm-2am on Saturday night (timing for Vail...a bit different other places), and this should easily add up to double digits. If things change, I'll update the forecast accordingly.

And, I can guarantee that Sunday and Tuesday will be good for another reason: I won't be in the state. A previously scheduled weather conference in New Orleans. The absentee forecaster...

JOEL

[bamboocoreONLY]

Breck was a lot of fun today, t-bar opening was sick! a little cheering section even formed below the semi decent cliffs in horeshoe. a ton of face shots in the burn as well...

[FiveLarge]

Breck was a lot of fun today, t-bar opening was sick! a little cheering section even formed below the semi decent cliffs in horeshoe. a ton of face shots in the burn as well...

Nice. How was coverage off t-bar and the burn? Pics make it look like horseshoe is still a bit bony. Did they open anything in north bowl (other direction off tbar)?

[dino]

Northern 1/2 of Colorado (Aspen on north) only gets big snow when the air gets colder (cold advection). Right now we have a ton of moisture, but no cold advection (even warming temps). The models go nuts in producing snow with lots of moisture and a strong wind hitting the mountains, but this never comes true for the northern 1/2 of the state. Never.

JOEL

This is some awesome insight. Thanks! Seems kinda odd that the model wouldn't have temp as a key component...

[goldenboy]

That skim crust Z and I skied today in the CB backcountry bore a striking similarity to a rain/freezing rain crust. Even on well shaded N slopes. Oh, and it was HOT!

[Like a Boss]

The Beav skied fast and soft today, almost corny (cornish? having the characteristics of corn?). I'm guessing tomorrow is going to be icetastic with the melt/refreeze.

I think many of us have a lot emotionally invested in this storm. Butt Mud is probably right about suicides if this thing whiffs.

[montanaskier]

wicked warm today......yeah, iy better snow on Saturday

[The SnowShow]

Looks like I'm meeting a friend to ski out in Aspen on Saturday...which mtn. is currently skiing the best? Thanks.

[TransplantedFromRMNP]

gratzo- congrats on the POWDER write up

[hawkgt]

gratzo- congrats on the POWDER write up

X2. Good to see the article gratzo

I'll be hitting Eldora also Sunday. Haters got to hate but it's a fun place to hit up on good snow