Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[skiingislife]

Surface hoar near Berthoud a couple days ago.




I'm really starting to get excited about Thursday and beyond!

[UGASkiDawg]

About 6 inches of snow in 3 weeks in SW CO.

Welcome to the N CO pain train

[ACHTUNG]

Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God Please God

[Lindahl]

Surface hoar near Berthoud a couple days ago.

Noticed some large surface hoar in SuCo, as well. Sweet photo.

[garuda]

We'll have the Southern Utes to thank when it starts snowing: http://www.vaildaily.com/article/201...profile=search

[mantraskier]

Very cool pic...wanting to get out Saturday and thinking about RMNP. Anyone been to the park lately?

[TransplantedFromRMNP]

skied up there the last 3 wkends of dec. snow is thin, you can find soft stuff here and there, as well as rocks and logs... havent been up since though.

[Cross]

Figures I get skiing out of my mind and start riding moto and I am all excited to keep riding the snow returns. Is this my punishment for enjoying amazing track conditions in January in the RFV?

[Z]

Surface hoar near Berthoud a couple days ago.




I'm really starting to get excited about Thursday and beyond!

Beautiful picture, Doug. Surprised that stuff survived the wind event with this latest (non) storm. Or was that from before?

[Crampedon]

NOAA for central Co. is not predicting much for next week, so in desperation I put in Seattle to see what might be moving across and hit Co. later in the week ( i want to buy the ticket!) This is what they are spewing, think the jet correction will push it where we need it"

"NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BRINGING A THREAT FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR AVALANCHES AND
PERIODS OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. THE EXPECTED
OVERALL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER THE LOWLANDS ESPECIALLY EARLY TO MID WEEK. VARIATIONS IN THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS."

[montanaskier]

there is change coming but I haven't seen anything to suggest we get a big jet dip over CO to provide epic deepness. It's gonna get snowy in the PNW, WY, MT, etc...and CO could have a few storms dig far enough south to give some really good snow but you can't predict which ones and how much until they are just a few days out. I do think that this pattern is at least more favorable for snow and more frequent snow even if it's just 3-4 here and 3-4 there.

[BDKeg]

http://opensnow.com/state/CO

finally some nice pow coming for san juans and central mtns

[gratzo]

@Montanaskier summed it up right.

MONDAY should be the best day of the next 5-6 days. Most snow will fall in the San Juans and west Elks (west of CB into Irwin, and perhaps Snowmass). I-70 will do OK, but there's less moisture up north and temps get COLD late Monday evening, too cold to efficiently produce snowflakes.

Beyond that, it'll get warmer later next week with lots of moisture. This usually means clouds and some light snow, but we need cold advection and the jet stream to really make snow.

I think next weekend and beyond could see 2-3 storms over the last weekend and week of January. Impossible to pin things down, but the jet does look like it will head further south and this is good for Colorado.

The pain train might be over.

Also, this is more of a "guess" than a prediction, but I think the Vail back bowls could open sometime around the last week of January if all goes according to plan. That's a long way out, but if we can get 2-3 good storms during the last 7-10 days of the month, life will get much better.

JOEL

[dino]

I always like the CAIC's way of stating things:

"The ridge shifts eastward Saturday. This signals an end to the blocking pattern that has pushed recent storms away from Colorado. On Sunday upper level flow turns southwesterly as a broad trough settles over the West Coast. A pair of storms converge on Colorado next week. The first comes in from the southwest, with snowfall starting over the San Juan Mountains last Sunday night. The second storm arrives from the northwest Monday morning, with a cold front spreading snow across the mountains during the day. Snow accumulations and timing will depend on the storms' interaction, and there is considerable uncertainty with the details this far ahead. Unsettled northwest flow develops the middle of next week."

[HellgateBasement]

So I've got a bunch of buddies flying in next Thursday. Trying to make the call on whether there will be enough snow by then to make skiing along the front range "worth it," or if I'll be driving to JH.

I had been leaning towards JH because I was worried that the pattern might miss us to the north again... but then this morning's NOAA is saying the jet stream might park right over the front range next week. Any thoughts? Joel?

[skiingislife]

Beautiful picture, Doug. Surprised that stuff survived the wind event with this latest (non) storm. Or was that from before?

Thanks Z! This was taken after the "calm" 5 inches on Monday and before the 8 inches that fell on Wednesday. I'm pretty sure the winds just before and during the second storm destroyed most of the surface hoar except for very sheltered areas.

[Pegleg]

So I've got a bunch of buddies flying in next Thursday. Trying to make the call on whether there will be enough snow by then to make skiing along the front range "worth it," or if I'll be driving to JH.

I had been leaning towards JH because I was worried that the pattern might miss us to the north again... but then this morning's NOAA is saying the jet stream might park right over the front range next week. Any thoughts? Joel?

I too am curious about front range vs. JH for next weekend; thinking about a road trip, but obviously don't wanna drive to Jackson and find that the deepness is back here. Input would be appreciated for this weather JONG.

[montanaskier]

If you can go to Jackson and you're looking for a better "sure thing"....then go to Jackson. It will snow next week here but Jackson is a much safer bet for more snow not to mention the terrain. IMO

[garuda]

If the Broncos win tomorrow, stay here. If not, go to JH.

[Pegleg]

If the Broncos win tomorrow, stay here. If not, go to JH.

So... you're saying to go to JH, then?

[funkendrenchman]

So... you're saying to go to JH, then?

That doesn't make much sense. The Broncos have been winning a lot lately and it hasn't snowed at all...

[garuda]

So... you're saying to go to JH, then?

Yeah, basically. Just saying the odds are stacked in JH's favor.

[Rontele]

In my totally uninformed and wild guess, it looks like both the 12z EC and GFS looked way stronger with the Monday storm and the NW flow thereafter...

I did stay at Holiday Inn Express last night, however.

[SterlingSpikeDancer]

Unsettled northwest flow develops the middle of next week."

THIS would make winter start to KICK ass.

[TransplantedFromRMNP]

The pain train might be over.

i hope so!
keeping my fingers crossed that the high pressure stops cockblocking us in CO