Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**Blurred** · 12-27-2009, 03:08 PM

Originally Posted by Jay P

because it was in a fucking blind spot. learn to read

If it was a little kid, would you just mow him over then complain that patrol didn't mark him with bamboo? Learn to ski, beater....and btw, how is the run groomed by a groomer, yet yo hit a rock?

**Campo** · 12-27-2009, 03:26 PM

Yo Jay P, STFO and GTFO! You are doing nothing but cunting up this thread with your bullshit. If you aren't willing to assume the risks of early season skiing, you can always stay in bed with your boyfriend.

**skiballs** · 12-27-2009, 04:49 PM

i gather the conditions in co suck
kinda like fagboys skiing ability

**telelebowski** · 12-27-2009, 05:39 PM

I call less than 5" Eagle Weds-Thurs.

And an unmarked rock?!
On a mountain?!
Oh, the horror.

(the horror)

**adam** · 12-27-2009, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Jay P

every area I have ever worked at has had a patrol that marks unseen hazards like that. 1 piece of bamboo is not a big fucking deal.

If you don't like unmarked obstacles, you should never ski crested butte.

**montanaskier** · 12-27-2009, 07:25 PM

JayP......www.epicski.com

**DaHeel** · 12-27-2009, 08:01 PM

God Damn we need some snow! You fuckers are grouchy!

**montanaskier** · 12-27-2009, 09:15 PM

next shot is still mid next week but I still don't see a huge event. NW flow sets up which could generate some favorable snows for those that do well in that flow. Ridging for the weekend. I still don't see anything big looming.

**vinteloz** · 12-28-2009, 09:19 AM

How's this week looking?

NWS sounds slightly promising, especially for northern CO:

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE 4 CORNERS FROM THE SW EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE AT THE MID
AND UPPER SLOPES BUT LAG IN THE STILL STAGNANT VALLEYS.

THE PAC TROUGH MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLY TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH PULLS MOISTURE UP AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK THAT
ENERGETIC WITH NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION...BUT WITH TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOWING A DEEP MOIST LAYER AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
FORECAST TO REACH ABOUT 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BOOSTED POPS IN THE
GRIDS TUE-TUE NIGHT. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT
FOCUS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL INTENSITY PICKS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NOSE OF 120 KT JET
APPROACHES...WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT. FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND PASSING SHRTWV TROUGH WITH WEAK SHOT OF CAA
WILL GET THE SNOW MACHINE GOING...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. LIGHTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED
OVER OUR REMAINING MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
VALLEYS. FLAT RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR WEST THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS EAST AS WE START OFF THE NEW YEAR...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS THE START OFF THE NEW
YEAR. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VALLEYS...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR SETTLES
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

**gratzo** · 12-28-2009, 10:33 AM

Looks like Thursday morning is the best shot for powder this week. Some light snow mostly for the southern and central mountains on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning looks decent/good, favoring Telluride/Aspen/Vail/Beaver Creek/Steamboat. The general NW flow with this storm favors these areas. The main energy will cross the state around the central/southern mountains, but BC/Vail/Steamboat do well in NW flow, so that should make up for some lake of energy (dynamics).

Looks like the best totals could hit low-end double digits by midday Thursday, with 3-6" average elsewhere.

**vinteloz** · 12-28-2009, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Looks like Thursday morning is the best shot for powder this week. Some light snow mostly for the southern and central mountains on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning looks decent/good, favoring Telluride/Aspen/Vail/Beaver Creek/Steamboat. The general NW flow with this storm favors these areas. The main energy will cross the state around the central/southern mountains, but BC/Vail/Steamboat do well in NW flow, so that should make up for some lake of energy (dynamics).

Looks like the best totals could hit low-end double digits by midday Thursday, with 3-6" average elsewhere.

Is it even worth looking at this from NWS? "WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS THE START OFF THE NEW
YEAR." or is that pretty much too far away to bother giving consideration? Flying into HDN on Jan 2.

**gratzo** · 12-28-2009, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by vinteloz

Is it even worth looking at this from NWS? "WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS THE START OFF THE NEW
YEAR." or is that pretty much too far away to bother giving consideration? Flying into HDN on Jan 2.

It's always worth looking at, and you're in luck since Steamboat will really be the only resort with the potential for snow Friday afternoon through Sunday. If Steamboat is lucky, they could sneak 2-4", up to 6" out of some northern moisture over the weekend. Too far out to have good confidence at this point, as the storm will only brush northern Colorado, so if the models take it a bit further north, then Steamboat will be dry. But at least you might get a bit of fresh for Sunday AM.

**montanaskier** · 12-28-2009, 03:39 PM

Joel, do you see any hinting of an overall pattern change coming up? Some long term stuff seem to hint at a more westerly flow instead of all this southerly digging. Whatcha think?

**gratzo** · 12-28-2009, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

Joel, do you see any hinting of an overall pattern change coming up? Some long term stuff seem to hint at a more westerly flow instead of all this southerly digging. Whatcha think?

Ha! Funny you should ask. I started thinking last week that a pattern shift is coming up...hopefully. I saw hints of it, but now I'm not so sure. Plus the NAO index (negative = eastern trough) is forecast to be negative for the next few weeks, which isn't good.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...ndex_ensm.html

However, northern Colorado can survive an eastern trough if we can get the storm track / westerlies just a bit further south, consistently.

For the record, New Year's Eve looks good:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...to-perfection/

**powderpounder** · 12-28-2009, 05:34 PM

Joel,

Hope you don't mind me posting this bit from your blog. Everyone should click the link in your post anyway in order to get the full story beyond this:

Thursday: Best powder of the week – be ready in the morning as the white gold won’t last long with holiday crowds. A general 3-6″ for much of the state, but I expect a few double-digit totals (counting from Tues PM through Thurs AM) at Telluride, Sunlight, Powderhorn, Aspen, and up through Beaver Creek, Vail, and Steamboat. Light snow could continue through the day, with some heavier, short-lived bursts of snow as well.

We're all set for another batch of double digits. Last week's 17" has held up well with the cold temps. We've moved off into the side country the last few days and still have an excellent stash of untracked fluff to enjoy as no one but a couple of us locals have been getting into it. If we get the goods for Thursday, I don't think we'll have the all the lines in the old stuff skied out yet, but we're happy to have some fresh and new to work with just the same.

Also appreciated your comments about Sunlight. There's a lot to be said for second tier Colorado ski areas which most often goes unspoken and unknown.

**gratzo** · 12-28-2009, 06:09 PM

powderpounder - guessing you are talking about Powderhorn?

**powderpounder** · 12-28-2009, 06:19 PM

Yes, and the north face of the mesa.

edited this morning to add the snow is here. nice.

**gratzo** · 12-29-2009, 12:06 PM

Snow still looks on track for tonight (some) and Wednesday afternoon/night (more). Likely double digit combined total by Thurs AM for Tride, Aspen, Sunlight, Powderhorn, Beav, Vail, Steamboat. Less elsewhere. Thurs AM still looks like the best day to ride this week.

Models a little further south with storms on Fri-Sun. I'm not jumping on board yet, but Steamboat could squeeze another 6" out of the weekend, with less down to I-70. First thing is first, though - the Wed night storm. By Thurs, it should be easier to nail down the weekend forecast.

**Puffin** · 12-29-2009, 12:47 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Snow still looks on track for tonight (some) and Wednesday afternoon/night (more). Likely double digit combined total by Thurs AM for Tride, Aspen, Sunlight, Powderhorn, Beav, Vail, Steamboat. Less elsewhere. Thurs AM still looks like the best day to ride this week.

Models a little further south with storms on Fri-Sun. I'm not jumping on board yet, but Steamboat could squeeze another 6" out of the weekend, with less down to I-70. First thing is first, though - the Wed night storm. By Thurs, it should be easier to nail down the weekend forecast.

Thanks for the update. Fingers crossed for EC

**grskier** · 12-29-2009, 04:58 PM

This thing doesn't want to come over the Elks yet.....

Watching the radar (which sucks in the mtns) is aggravating....

I'll be in Taos anyway this week.... but we need anything to add to our base.

**telepariah** · 12-29-2009, 05:17 PM

Hey Joel, I recently subscribed to your blog and just want to say that between it and your contributions to this thread, you are creating a great value for this community. Thanks mang!

**montanaskier** · 12-29-2009, 05:19 PM

we won't see anything til tomorrow afternoon would be my guess. I thought the 8" range for EC and still feel that is ok, maybe a tad high but I'll stick with that prediction.

Frustrating part is we may see another inch or so on Sat then more high pressure.

Maybe this thing will dump 15 or so.

**Rontele** · 12-29-2009, 06:56 PM

We need one to two weeks of these 7 to 8 inch storms to really make a difference at this point.

**gratzo** · 12-29-2009, 07:23 PM

Originally Posted by telepariah

Hey Joel, I recently subscribed to your blog and just want to say that between it and your contributions to this thread, you are creating a great value for this community. Thanks mang!

If I can do what I love (weather, skiing) and help people at the same time - good deal. Thanks!

**gratzo** · 12-29-2009, 07:25 PM

Quick look at the long-range pattern doesn't make me happy. I'll leave it at that. Colorado is unique in that we can squeeze out some snow even when there is a western ridge / eastern trough, as long as the eastern trough pushes far enough west. But no big pattern change looming in the next two weeks. Alternatively, a big storm for northern New England looks good for the weekend.

I'll take my sunny powder on Thursday and keep hoping...