Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[PowTrees]

Dear Santa,

The gifts over the years have been wonderful. But if I could have anything in the world for Christmas this year: at least a foot of fresh blower powder (at Vail/BC) and the freedom to slay freshies all day

[montanaskier]

the wife is blaming me. I told Rontele earlier that I would take a Bama National Championship and a winter of no snow. Sorry. ROLL TIDE!

[hitek79]

I'm a Sooner fan and a dedicated Longhorn hater, so I'm with ya dude!

[Shredhead]

Yea, stay away. There was nothing but dirt up there today. Whole bowl, dirt!

I spoke with Scotty Nichols yesterday, they are actually a little worried that the bowl isn't getting skied enough to stabilize it. Apparently traffic is way down since they discontinued the Highlander and 2 day a week passes.

I hope your doing your part!

[Crampedon]

Dear Santa,

The gifts over the years have been wonderful. But if I could have anything in the world for Christmas this year: at least a foot of fresh blower powder (at Vail/BC) and the freedom to slay freshies all day

PS, and Santa, if you just close that pass for half a day, I'll be a goood boy!

[gratzo]

Speaking of Highland Bowl, here's a bit of fun from Monday:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...lovin-feeling/

Models are doing OK this year...I never pay attention to details more than 3 days in advance anyway, but the trend for a decent storm Tues/Wed next week is still there (ish). Let's hope!

JOEL

[Shredhead]

Nice crew gratzo! You forgot to throw a couple of props to Art. Former national tele champ and designer of the T1.

[gratzo]

Nice crew gratzo! You forgot to throw a couple of props to Art. Former national tele champ and designer of the T1.

Yeah...true. Showed him in the video, but should update the post. He is indeed a legend (and a fast hiker).

[funkendrenchman]

6-14 day looks as good as it has all season.

[Rontele]

6-14 day looks as good as it has all season.

Terrible accuracy.

[gratzo]

Still thinking something middle of next week, but the details are tough. Looks like the system would be colder with OK but not ample moisture. To get a feel for the model uncertainties, here is a 500mb (18,000ft) map of the atmosphere next Wednesday. Each of the 12 maps shows a slightly different forecast, and each map is produced from one model (GFS) with just slightly different initial conditions. The gist - some semblance of a western or midwestern trough toward the middle of next week. The take away (for me at least): something to look forward to, but way too early to get excited.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/E...z/ensloop.html

[montanaskier]

yep, all over the place really. Any long term hope for an extended period of snowy weather...like a week or two?

[MakersTeleMark]

NWS Fail:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MST WED DEC 16 2009

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-171300-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MST WED DEC 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN A FEW
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY MAY FALL BELOW ONE MILE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS AT SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY BOTTOMS OR
ALONG UNFROZEN RIVERS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW ARRIVES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FAVOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

TGJT

[Campo]

Gratzo...you are impressing me man. MA or PhD in what?

[gratzo]

Gratzo...you are impressing me man. MA or PhD in what?

Thanks Campo, but I'm only as good as the last forecast. B.S. in meteorology at Penn State, then M.S. in environmental studies here at University of Colorado. Then about 4-5 years of watching Colorado snowfall forecasts, skiing the snow, and figuring out where the forecasts when wrong (or right).

[Campo]

I am thinking of applying to Penn State's distance program in Meteorology. Any comments on it? Ethan at CAIC had nothing but good things to say. I would move to attend school in person, but, I have a house, wife, job, all the normal lame stuff that makes ski bumming difficult.

Thanks Campo, but I'm only as good as the last forecast. B.S. in meteorology at Penn State, then M.S. in environmental studies here at University of Colorado. Then about 4-5 years of watching Colorado snowfall forecasts, skiing the snow, and figuring out where the forecasts when wrong (or right).

[gratzo]

I am thinking of applying to Penn State's distance program in Meteorology. Any comments on it? Ethan at CAIC had nothing but good things to say. I would move to attend school in person, but, I have a house, wife, job, all the normal lame stuff that makes ski bumming difficult.

I've never taken one of their online courses, but the instructors are great (I know them personally). Also, for a free alternative, check out this site:
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

You'll have to register (free), and there are online education modules on pretty much any topic in weather (including mountain meteorology). The catch is that most modules likely assume a basic understanding of meteorology, but there may be some things in there that are helpful. Also, I think a new "Snowpack" module is coming out within a week or two.

The downside of the Penn State courses is that they aren't geared toward mountain and snow weather, so you may get some good background info, but it might not help a bunch with Colorado forecasting.

[CG]

Snowed at Loveland all day

[montanaskier]

Looks like the storm mid week will follow the path of previous storms and dig south. SW winds AGAIN. Man am I sick of this pattern.

[Z]

Man I LOVE this pattern.

[Rontele]

Looks like the storm mid week will follow the path of previous storms and dig south. SW winds AGAIN. Man am I sick of this pattern.

This is the montanaskier we all know and love.

Its your fucking fault for picking 'Bama over a good snow season. Nick Saban can die in a grease fire.

[smmokan]

Looks like a road trip to Monarch then.

[montanaskier]

compared to the last two winters this one is pretty rough so far. I do bet that the spring goes completely off as the storm track stops digging so far south and we get more of a westerly flow. I would take a consistent SW flow over nothing. Just let a bunch of storms line up and start pounding. 6" then 10 days of nothing doesn't do much good.

Oh and ROLL TIDE FUCKERS!

[Campo]

Come down to Wolfie and you have a free room at my place.

Looks like a road trip to Monarch then.

[smmokan]

Hmm. I'll have to take a look at the timing of this the next storm- assuming there is one.