Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**cmsummit** · 12-08-2009, 10:13 AM

Finally. It's now dumping in Breck.

C'mon NW flow.

**Jay P** · 12-08-2009, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

Finally. It's now dumping in Breck.

C'mon NW flow.

lets just hope that this system decides to sit on Summit and not be gone in a matter of hours

**stupendous man** · 12-08-2009, 10:37 AM

the summit county umbrella will be unfurled soon enough...

**goldenboy** · 12-08-2009, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by raymonster

Winds have started blowin in CB and its still honkin. (goldenboy, my fizzle comment yesterday was meant as sarcasm)

Ah, sorry, sarcasm meter must have been broken. Winds more NW now, probably means an end to the snow around here.

**montanaskier** · 12-08-2009, 11:11 AM

the snow picked up at home as I headed to Gypsum for work. W- NW winds now so no snow at all in Eagle/Gypsum but dumping up valley. Gypsum did get about 10" I'd say. Wind has also increased.

**jon turner** · 12-08-2009, 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by powder_prophet

2 inches of so in Leadville. That's on top of another inch from yesterday.

Far cry from the forecasts. But I'll be there's a decent amount of accumulation going on up high.

I was thinking we're closer to 6-8 on the ground at this point with snow still falling. It's nice to see snow around town.

**gratzo** · 12-08-2009, 02:39 PM

Good snows will stick around for Crested Butte and north through the evening, and maybe a few more inches over Wed and Thurs, mostly Vail/BC/Steamboat in somewhat moisture northwest flow. Classic cyclone exiting the state to the east, with good storms (bluer, cooler, higher clouds) still popping over the mountains toward the west. Link for animation. Image below.

The Vail (summit) point forecast posted Monday afternoon still called for 14-28", which is too high. Rontele's 8-16" looks reasonable, but I'd say the lower end is more reasonable from this storm. 16" would be reasonable adding in the showers Wed/Thurs.

Overall, this storm came as I expected. The models ALWAYS overpredict snow, too early, along the I-70 resorts with strong southwesterly flow (including Fireweather). Some updated thoughts posted here (please permit the slight pat on the back) at ColoradoPowderForecast.com The National Weather Service always drinks the model's coolaid and overpredicts, too. Oh well..

**Rontele** · 12-08-2009, 02:44 PM

good blog, Joel. Please keep it up. I'm liking the Vail webcams and radar returns. 8-16 is a safe bet

(can still be on the low end and be right)

**PowTrees** · 12-08-2009, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

good blog, Joel. Please keep it up. I'm liking the Vail webcams and radar returns. 8-16 is a safe bet

(can still be on the low end and be right)

Will be pleasantly surprised if we get more than 8" around here. Definitely not snowing that hard in Eagle Vail, here's to hoping it's much better up on the mountains.

**Puffin** · 12-08-2009, 04:11 PM

Snowing very hard on Vail.

Rode today for couple of hours. It's starting to get good and bouncey. Got some first tracks on a run they opened near chair 2. Got some calf deep turns and was not hitting bottom. If it continues to snow at this rate, tomorrow could be a really great day...

Hopefully snowforecast is right. ha...

**Rontele** · 12-08-2009, 04:18 PM

Snow and blowing snow advisory for the northern mountains through Thursday. Vail Pass webcam and radar still showing returns, but not sure if its snowing up there per Vail's webcams...

**montanaskier** · 12-08-2009, 04:24 PM

moist NW flow should keep snow falling on Vail Pass and Vail mountain. I doubt much shows up on radar returns but I bet it's snowing. I'll be curious to see totals in the morning, the snotels in the area don't give hourly.

PowTrees- where you live and on valley floors the snow should be ending for the most part. Vail proper will benefit the rest of the way.

**gratzo** · 12-08-2009, 05:49 PM

Looks like snow is slacking around I-70, from the Beav to Summit. This is partially due to some drying in the atmosphere, and also partially due to the sun going down, since some of the heavier snow this afternoon was convective (like a thunderstorm...warmer air near the ground rises...in this case, the ground air isn't that warm, but the air up around 20,000ft is VERY cold, making it seem like the ground air is warm).

Good news is more moisture is on the way per Water Vapor imagery, so there should be another 3-6" of snow from tonight through Thursday AM. More is possible with some lucky placement of the heavier showers.

Also, very little of the good snows along I-70 and Steamboat (or most other places, for that matter) show up on radar. For a very quick explanation, check out slides #17-20 here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/education/ Either the radar beam is blocked by the mountains, or it overshoots the snow.

Vail sounds temping in the morning, but might wait for some more terrain to open...

**funkendrenchman** · 12-08-2009, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Also, very little of the good snows along I-70 and Steamboat (or most other places, for that matter) show up on radar. For a very quick explanation, check out slides #17-20 here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/education/ Either the radar beam is blocked by the mountains, or it overshoots the snow.

Been snowing here since morning without much of anything on the radar. Just curious, what flows would you say benefit the Aspen area the most? I've seen us get pounded by WSW and NW, but the start of this storm which was SW gave us almost nothing. Would you tend to agree?

**Rontele** · 12-08-2009, 06:02 PM

The radar read was very interesting. Thanks, Joel.

**Puffin** · 12-08-2009, 06:07 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

Vail sounds temping in the morning, but might wait for some more terrain to open...

They opened Game Creek today at midday. Also 11 has been spinning for the last several days straight and the northeast bowl was getting windloaded like crazy all day. I predict chair 11 very soon, and possible tomorrow.

**montanaskier** · 12-08-2009, 06:07 PM

some more terrain is opening tomorrow at Vail Joel that might be worth you making a trip. I'm skinning in the am, probably gonna freeze to death.

**Rontele** · 12-08-2009, 06:15 PM

what is the coverage like up there? Just thinking about our Eiseman trip this weekend. still snowing montanaskier?

**MakersTeleMark** · 12-08-2009, 06:44 PM

I'd say you'll have 1-1.5 feet on top of facets on higher elevations slopes. Not snowing currently, but we're heading into a cold snap, and the snow is very low density. I suspect lots of wind transport. CDC should be skiing real well tomorrow.

**PowTrees** · 12-08-2009, 08:23 PM

Originally Posted by Puffin

They opened Game Creek today at midday. Also 11 has been spinning for the last several days straight and the northeast bowl was getting windloaded like crazy all day. I predict chair 11 very soon, and possible tomorrow.

Have they even opened chair 4 yet?

**Puffin** · 12-08-2009, 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

what is the coverage like up there? Just thinking about our Eiseman trip this weekend. still snowing montanaskier?

I think i gotta little overzealous but I hit some rocks and logs and such just under the fresh. My base is a little upset right now...

Wish I used a different setup...like one I care less about...

PowTrees - Yes. 2/3/4/7 and VV and LH base chairs are all running. Like I say, I am pretty confident something will open tomorrow, and by something I mean chair 11

**montanaskier** · 12-08-2009, 08:48 PM

Makers said it right. Not snowing now but I bet the Gore did ok, not Wolf Creek ok, but probably did ok. You know that area and you know what to avoid with sketch conditions.

**Spyplane** · 12-08-2009, 09:13 PM

BTW, got up to A-Basin this morning at 7:30 to see no new snow (as Fort Collins was getting slammed at 5am when I left) so I headed to keystone. As soon as the lifts got going it started snowing, not much obviously, but I was thankful for anything. Not what I was hoping driving all the way from the Fort, but I still got a good day of snowboarding all by myself and Key and Basin (switched to a-basin at lunch). The only downer was loveland pass being closed for the way home, but if that is the worst thing to happen to me in the day, it is a good day.

C'mon snow, fill it all the grassy runs for us!

**gratzo** · 12-08-2009, 09:36 PM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Been snowing here since morning without much of anything on the radar. Just curious, what flows would you say benefit the Aspen area the most? I've seen us get pounded by WSW and NW, but the start of this storm which was SW gave us almost nothing. Would you tend to agree?

You got it. WSW through NW sounds about right, and you should know since you live there! On slide #22, I show favored wind directions, with the WSW arrow pointed to Aspen. I should probably add W to NW on there, too.

Quick WEATHER GEEK note: Rontele and I were talking yesterday about orographics vs. dynamics leading to more snow. We get snow when moist air goes up (the air cools and moisture condenses into snow). Air can go up either because physics says it should (due to a storm "lifting" the air...dynamics) or because air runs into a mountain and it is forced up (orographics). A quick calculation yesterday showed that the strongest dynamics get air going up at maybe 0.5-1.0mph (super strong dynamics) while orographics can get air going up about 10x faster (8-10mph). The gist is that dynamics are a big deal, but orographics can either enhance or retard snowfall up to 10x better than dynamics.

Most of the computer weather models operate on scales that don't take into account the mountains in enough detail to fully capture the orographic effect.

Thanks for listening...

**concretejungle** · 12-08-2009, 09:42 PM

Anyone been up to the IPW (west of Allenspark area) lately? There's enough snow at the house that I think it might be decent. I need to ski pow and the misses company holiday party is fucking up any road trip possibility for later this week.

Since I have the page top fuck all of Southern Colorado. I hate you guys, seriously.