Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**Cross** · 11-28-2009, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by shredgnar

Good news, biking and climbing are having an extended season this year.

I wouldn't say the bike season is extended yet. The last two years there was less snow on the ground at this time. If anything the ski season has a good start this year.

**funkendrenchman** · 11-28-2009, 02:31 PM

The 6-10 and 8-14 have both changed a lot since yesterday, getting rid of the huge area of high chances of below normal precip. Hopefully, this is the sign of an expected pattern change.

**SkiNowWorkLater** · 11-28-2009, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

The 6-10 and 8-14 have both changed a lot since yesterday, getting rid of the huge area of high chances of below normal precip. Hopefully, this is the sign of an expected pattern change.

God let's hope so. Hey you up for some touring tomorrow morning?

**Rontele** · 11-28-2009, 03:56 PM

funken, be wary of weekend 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts as they have no forecaster input, just model input...

**montanaskier** · 11-28-2009, 04:04 PM

^^^ good point. Next shot at this point looks like sometime next weekend but that is still a long way away. Until then outside of Tuesday where it will be near 50+ degrees, temps should be at least near normal.

**funkendrenchman** · 11-28-2009, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by SkiNowWorkLater

God let's hope so. Hey you up for some touring tomorrow morning?

I guess so... something under 9 hours, okay? Call me, I'll be out tonight.

I kind of knew those weekend forecasts were just based on models, but I'm looking for something....

**Rontele** · 11-28-2009, 05:35 PM

yesterday's 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts had a wetter bias with forecaster input.

**Crampedon** · 11-28-2009, 11:49 PM

Just received a communique' from a Maggette in Edwards, 4-6 inches on the ground in town, said she just left Vail village and got home and roads a mess! 10:30pm

Go forth!

**FiveLarge** · 11-29-2009, 12:00 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

...had a wetter bias with input...

that's what she said

**PowTrees** · 11-29-2009, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by Crampedon

Just received a communique' from a Maggette in Edwards, 4-6 inches on the ground in town, said she just left Vail village and got home and roads a mess! 10:30pm

Go forth!

How much did the person giving this report drink?? From my roost here in Eagle Vail I don't see any more than a dusting of new snow. Vail/Beav didn't even report an inch. I drove to Wal Mart last night around 10:30 PM and there was so little snow it barely affected the roads...

**Crampedon** · 11-29-2009, 11:01 AM

Originally Posted by PowTrees

How much did the person giving this report drink?? From my roost here in Eagle Vail I don't see any more than a dusting of new snow. Vail/Beav didn't even report an inch. I drove to Wal Mart last night around 10:30 PM and there was so little snow it barely affected the roads...

Didn't someone just post "you can't trust women" I guess that goes for the snow report too! Funny thing is she does not drink at all, makes it even worse!

I'll take away here temporary Maggette card until she redeems herself...

pics to follow!

**DaHeel** · 11-29-2009, 06:54 PM

Maybe 2" Here in Edwards last night. Avon/EV just got a dusting. I guess she was partialy correct but I like her idea of what 6" looks like.

**montanaskier** · 11-29-2009, 07:58 PM

^^^ you would.

**Rontele** · 11-30-2009, 10:23 AM

something brewing for the end of the weekend into next week...

**SkiNowWorkLater** · 11-30-2009, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

something brewing for the end of the weekend into next week...

Perfect. Just in time for me to leave for the week...

**gratzo** · 11-30-2009, 11:48 AM

Hmmm...not inspired by what's brewing for Sun-Tues (likely later...Mon-Wed) of next week. But it's too far out to get depressed about. Some cold air coming Tuesday night and hanging around for a decent chunk of the week, though not much snow coming with the cold air (maybe a few inches on the central, northern, and eastern peaks...if we're lucky).

**Rontele** · 11-30-2009, 12:02 PM

^^^^ agreed. both the GFS and the EC have slowed down considerably over the past forecasts, with the GFS still more robust. Hasn't the EC been a total unreliable shit show this fall?

**Rontele** · 11-30-2009, 12:16 PM

gratzo,

what are your thoughts about what the Dweeb report says about former Super Typhoon Nida becoming a closed Gulf of AK low and eventually moving onshore? HPC's 3-7s had it parked there yesterday as a 923mb low.

**montanaskier** · 11-30-2009, 01:37 PM

the weekend looks cold but not very moist. Interesting about a potential major shift. We need a major shift.

**smmokan** · 11-30-2009, 02:32 PM

^^^ I concur. I'm tired of biking and I want to go skiing now.

**brettf** · 11-30-2009, 05:08 PM

I'm pretty sure you're on the Dweeb Report, D

**snowswine** · 11-30-2009, 06:24 PM

Originally Posted by smmokan

^^^ I concur. I'm tired of biking and I want to go skiing now.

I just smoke a little extra weed and Loveland is fun for a morning /afternoon!

I feel spoiled after the last couple years.....My only 2 in Colorado.

**gratzo** · 11-30-2009, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

gratzo,

what are your thoughts about what the Dweeb report says about former Super Typhoon Nida becoming a closed Gulf of AK low and eventually moving onshore? HPC's 3-7s had it parked there yesterday as a 923mb low.

From everything I've read concerning long range forecasting (which is not my strength, but I'm learning), the dominating pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is likely to be a trough in the east (cold, snow) and a ridge in the west (drier). Of course, slight differences in where the troughs and ridges setup can mean big differences in our weather. If the eastern trough is far enough west, Colorado gets clipped by storms coming down from Canada and at least we stay cold with some snow in the northern and eastern mountains.

The storm early next week just looks odd in the models. Of course it could happen, but the more amplified the weather pattern (large troughs and ridges), the harder it is for the models to figure things out. When the weather pattern moves steadily west-to-east (zonal), the models have a better time forecasting.

The last few storms have been a decent blend of the GFS and ECMWF (European), and from what I'm reading, there's less confidence in the GFS long range forecast at the moment.

In any case, if we get some kinda of cut-off low spinning over the west on Sun/Mon, it could work out OK for Colorado, but this is generally not a big snow type of pattern. But I'll take anything...

**Rontele** · 11-30-2009, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by gratzo

From everything I've read concerning long range forecasting (which is not my strength, but I'm learning), the dominating pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is likely to be a trough in the east (cold, snow) and a ridge in the west (drier). Of course, slight differences in where the troughs and ridges setup can mean big differences in our weather. If the eastern trough is far enough west, Colorado gets clipped by storms coming down from Canada and at least we stay cold with some snow in the northern and eastern mountains.

The storm early next week just looks odd in the models. Of course it could happen, but the more amplified the weather pattern (large troughs and ridges), the harder it is for the models to figure things out. When the weather pattern moves steadily west-to-east (zonal), the models have a better time forecasting.

The last few storms have been a decent blend of the GFS and ECMWF (European), and from what I'm reading, there's less confidence in the GFS long range forecast at the moment.

In any case, if we get some kinda of cut-off low spinning over the west on Sun/Mon, it could work out OK for Colorado, but this is generally not a big snow type of pattern. But I'll take anything...

Really good insight. I think we are due for a pattern shift with the eastern trough slowly progression and some retrogression of the western H to roughly 135-140 west. This opens the storm door from the NW. Interesting that yesterday's forecast discussions said that the EC was totally out of phase with GFS and its ensembles, and today, the GFS is out of phase with a majority of ensembles and the EC.

Edit to add: I have been doing this self weather analysis for roughly five years now and find the forecasts to be frustratingly accurate and inaccurate at the same times. NOAA has easily the best products for mid to long range forecasting, but frankly fireweather.info cannot be beat for accuracy come short term storm time...