18z GFS, Wasatch snow, and collective consciousness

[powderpig77]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp.../model_m.shtml

Granted I've been placing hope in the gfs, for what 3 wks now, and its proven to be a bit less than accurate, but we know its coming soon and we know its gonna be big right? sooo...Looking at the 18z gfs hope springs eternal or at least on 27th 28th with what appears to be a decent front on northwest flow with the 150hr actually showing heavier precip over the wasatch on cold nw flow. Then things look really interesting on the 204hr frcst (30th)with a cold storm out of the gulf of ak combining with an old cut off low bring up subtropical moisture. I dont really buy the 216hr evolution of this storm showing heavy precip over the wasatch on wrap around ne flow which is usually dry due to downsloping...but anyway it looks big and that far out fine details are a guess at best but...

WASATCH SNOW LOVERS LET US CONCENTRATE ON THESE DATES.
Every night say 10:30pm before you go to bed picture the calender, picture the 27, 28, 30, 1, a new month. Picture the dark clouds coming across the lake. Picture them slamming into our canyons. Picture the perfect flakes falling fat and heavy. Picture the radar images streaming moisture over our canyons. Picture all your friends smiling and laughing as they play with you in our great new white bounty.

DO THIS AND I PROMISE YOU ALL WE HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE IN THIS VALLEY TO MANIFEST SNOWSTORMS LIKE THE "GOOD OL DAYS"

[powderpig77]

11/22 -- 12z GFS brings a system around 28/29 that appears to open the door...system after powerful system starting in Dec!! Cmon lets make this happen...theres only so many times I can ride moonbeam.

[stenou]

I have trip coming up Dec. 6 and have looked at same GFS. The 18Z didn't look as nice as 12Z past Dec. 4, but that's pretty far out. I will hope and pray and chant "I think it can, I think it can" every night. It can't hurt.

[powderpig77]

yep 18z today flipped yet again (hopefully a sign the model is struggling with a pattern change)

[stenou]

The last 2 runs of GFS, including 00z for 11-23 are irritating. Trends are going in wrong direction. Hopefully subsequent runs get Utah whacked again. On latest runs, Whistler looks to be slammed. Unfortuately, that's not where I'm flying. I will try to pray and chant harder.

[lionelhutz]

Never ever trust the 6z or 18z GFS runs. They are alwayins brining big snow and cold and never happen.
Though in my experience if the models flip around alot after having a good forecast for a few runs that's a good thing. It seems to indicate to me that they are testing their original hypothesis and questioning the original solution...

I mean the snow in the wasatch will start at some point right?

[stenou]

I know I'm getting obsessive with my happiness rising or falling on what the latest GFS model is doing. The 00z and 06Z suck out past next week. Want to build huge ridge over western US. But 12Zlets some energy in. We'll see. Looks like some snow next week, but it doesn't look that huge on GFS. Happy to hear from those who know more. I shouldn't worry. I have 12 days to go.

[powderpig77]

Well the good news this morning is that the operational GFS is being disregarded as it is the clear outlier. Canadian, European, and the GFS ensemble mean continue to show a deep cold trough for tuesday afternoon...they also continue to dig a long wave trough over the west where the op gfs is more zonal. YEah F the GFS.

[stenou]

That's good news. Where do you find the other models to look at? I'd prefer not to look at models that are saying things I don't want to hear. At least for now.

[powderpig77]

Yeah I feel like a bible thumper...I can find evidence for whatever I want to believe. I haven't found a site that allows you to see the whole euro model for free but if you check the blogs on accuweather.com you can find them with analysis.

actually this site has most of them:
http://www.canadianweather.org/models/ecmwf.shtml

[stenou]

Last few runs of GFS are showing some decent storms 10-15 days out. I know that's a long ways out, but I prefer to believe in them.

[stenou]

So weather geeks, the last several runs of GFS show major storminess for Utah from 10-15 days out. I know that's long ways out. The Canadian ensemble forecasts found on Environment Canada website only show storminess for PNW during that time frame. Any ideas as to which models do a better job that far out. The difference seems to be tons of snow or none. Big difference.

[Red Baron]

Utah in late November + day 15 GFS (or GFSx) =same probability of being accurate as

[~mikey b]

I knew I was going to be glad I clicked on this thread when I saw Red Baron had responded. His response was beeter than I thought it would be.

How's Chicago treating you?

[Red Baron]

all is well - does "southbound" mean you are leaving AK?

[~mikey b]

already left AK for CO

[pointedem]

Take a look at the 72-96 hours on the GFS 6 hour precip surface.

[powderpig77]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp.../model_m.shtml

Granted I've been placing hope in the gfs, for what 3 wks now, and its proven to be a bit less than accurate, but we know its coming soon and we know its gonna be big right? sooo...Looking at the 18z gfs hope springs eternal or at least on 27th 28th with what appears to be a decent front on northwest flow with the 150hr actually showing heavier precip over the wasatch on cold nw flow. Then things look really interesting on the 204hr frcst (30th)with a cold storm out of the gulf of ak combining with an old cut off low bring up subtropical moisture. I dont really buy the 216hr evolution of this storm showing heavy precip over the wasatch on wrap around ne flow which is usually dry due to downsloping...but anyway it looks big and that far out fine details are a guess at best but...

WASATCH SNOW LOVERS LET US CONCENTRATE ON THESE DATES.
Every night say 10:30pm before you go to bed picture the calender, picture the 27, 28, 30, 1, a new month. Picture the dark clouds coming across the lake. Picture them slamming into our canyons. Picture the perfect flakes falling fat and heavy. Picture the radar images streaming moisture over our canyons. Picture all your friends smiling and laughing as they play with you in our great new white bounty.

DO THIS AND I PROMISE YOU ALL WE HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE IN THIS VALLEY TO MANIFEST SNOWSTORMS LIKE THE "GOOD OL DAYS"

YEP YEP MCYEPPERS. A new month indeed. Just back from a rather scary, well VERY scary, dawn patrol. Holy f'n sheet who turned on the hose?

[Bawheed]

FKNA, thanks for the link!

[dfinn]

I'm kind of new to the weather stuff but find it pretty interesting.

How reliable is the GFS model and how far out do most people trust it?

[haydukelives]

i must be reading this incorrectly

[cdlv]

Winter Storm Watch in effect for late Friday through Sunday. A complex storm system will move across the area with 3 or more main features. The first significant weather feature will be the upstart of strong southwest winds Friday afternoon which will continue into Saturday morning. Winds in excess of 70 mph are expected during this period. Snow will develop Friday but will not become heavy until Saturday as the first of two low level thermal troughs move across. The second trough will move through Sunday bringing another round of heavy snow. Snow amounts of 20 to 30 inches are possible through Sunday.

[pointedem]

GFS out to 138 is looking pretty good for UT.

[pointedem]

I am not seeing where the 1-4 feet predicted for UT is coming from...
granted I dont know shit about weather, but the GFS surface... I just don't see it.

Baron? any beta?