Total of six people caught in three avalanches in 24 hours

https://denvergazette.com/outthereco...4cee-174633346

I assume the Front Range avalanche referred to in the article was the incident on Hagar, where four people were caught while booting up for a second run:

https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...c-a8c619448e81

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Originally Posted by andy m

I assume the Front Range avalanche referred to in the article was the incident on Hagar, where four people were caught while booting up for a second run:

https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...c-a8c619448e81

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Holy crap. :eek:

People are skiing pretty aggressive lines in my neck of the woods, even though the CBAC just bumped it back up to considerable due to the warm temps setting off another natural cycle.

I'm going to keep riding chairs and maybe do a bit of ice climbing, personally. We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

Wow, just nuts.


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Originally Posted by goldenboy

We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

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The pits I dug this past weekend had some of the weakest snowpack I've ever seen. I don't yet have a good handle on "normal" for the San Juans, but for Colorado in general, particularly shitty seems like a good descriptor.

Anyway here are the observations from the other two incidents, all three are fascinating to read in their own way.

Meaden Peak NW of Steamboat, party of 3 with 1 caught and not buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...a-7fdbb694a9a2

Red Mountain 3 N of Red Mountain Pass/Silverton, party of 2 with 1 caught and partially buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...4-2a4b6ff07ded

Essentially side country on Hagar?

Hagar isn't that easy to get to. Loveland has a cat skiing operation it can run in the basin, but Hagar never struck me as having a side country vibe.

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Originally Posted by whipski

Essentially side country on Hagar?

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Not really, as craven said above. There is a gate off of 8 but it's pretty low and requires a good walk to get to Hagar/Dry Gulch.

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The hits keep coming. Sort the field reports by "caught". The narrative right now could be substantially different if it where not for some remarkable luck, in my opinion. I have noticed a change in the message from the avalanche center basically saying, "If you are going to sent, this is how you stack the deck in your favor".

Someone took a ride yesterday behind my house on Del Norte peak. No injuries airbag and the debris spread out.https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...0-7e74bfd5243a

Lots of catch and carries and other close calls out here in UT lately too. "Scary Moderate" is my rating, PWL like you guys. I'm not smart enough to be skiing avi terrain in these conditions. Things that are happening give me a bad feeling.

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Originally Posted by adrenalated

Red Mountain 3 N of Red Mountain Pass/Silverton, party of 2 with 1 caught and partially buried
https://avalanche.state.co.us/observ...4-2a4b6ff07ded

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Seeing this slide from the highway Sunday was sobering. Didn't stop a group from punching serpentine on Red 2 though, a similar aspect/elevation one peak away. I think I'll be skiing the resort and keeping it mellow for a while.

I'm on the fence if I'll even bring my touring gear to the Wasatch next week.

Holy shit that Red Mountain one is nuts. My touring gear is gathering dust, been reading the report daily and just can't justify going out. Lapping chairs at Purg is where it's at. Hope these next two storms dump what's forecasted. Looking more and more that the backcountry will have to wait until spring.

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Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles

The narrative right now could be substantially different if it where not for some remarkable luck, in my opinion.

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Yeah, we could pat ourselves on the back right now since there has only been one death, and even that one could have had a lucky outcome. But I feel like there could just as easily been 10+ by now if not for luck.

Stay safe out there, this is a tough pack this season.

Two scary close calls for us this week. They were both very lucky, each could have easily ended badly. 4-6 slabs. One ran 2000' but the skier got pushed out a side eddy after a few hundred. They other, famous freeskier, got swept through trees and boulders, no helmet even, came out partially buried with a broken ski and a minor tweaked knee.

Thing about luck is, it runs out.

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

People are skiing pretty aggressive lines in my neck of the woods, even though the CBAC just bumped it back up to considerable due to the warm temps setting off another natural cycle.

I'm going to keep riding chairs and maybe do a bit of ice climbing, personally. We almost always get a PWL, but this year's version seems particularly shitty.

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https://classic.avalanche.state.co.u...=863&accfm=rep 2/11/2024 fatality.

^that was mag backcountry1pr
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...backcountry1pr

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Originally Posted by goldenboy

Yeah, we could pat ourselves on the back right now since there has only been one death, and even that one could have had a lucky outcome. But I feel like there could just as easily been 10+ by now if not for luck.

Stay safe out there, this is a tough pack this season.

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Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

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Yes same here people in Summit are definitely stepping out into pretty serious terrain. Silver got hammered on Sunday

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Originally Posted by Irlts

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

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Those are reliable indicators for reactive near-surface instabilities in recent snowfall, but they mean fuckall for a PWL.

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Originally Posted by gmorgg

Yes same here people in Summit are definitely stepping out into pretty serious terrain. Silver got hammered on Sunday

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Yeesh...

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Originally Posted by Irlts

"The group did not observe any signs of instability, like cracking or collapsing". I feel like I read this comment all the time, but never understood why that would then turn into a green light.

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I am growing increasingly agitated when seeing this sentence in field reports this season. Clearly the messaging is not getting through. My question is how do we fix that? I have some involvement on the education side, and am all ears on ideas for more effectively ingraining the message that a lack of flashing red instability clues are not an indicator of stability for a PWL.

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Originally Posted by Lindahl

Exactly how I'm feeling about this year's snowpack. A lot of people around this time of year are banking on midpack bridging, but that's pretty unreliable this year given how much worse it is than more normal years. Too much 'seems stable' going around in my neck of the woods.

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Yep and the problem is, for much of the state, the PWL of concern is ABOVE the mid-pack slab. It's not the depth hoar like it is on many years. CAIC is starting to become a little more direct on this at least in the forecast discussions. All three forecast discussions (northern, central, and southern) are specifically calling out faceted layers buried in early February as the most concerning right now. In our hasty pits on Berthoud this weekend, very weak layers producing planer failures were very easy to find sitting above the dense mid-pack slab and ever-present depth hoar. I do think CAIC could be doing better to call this out in the forecast summary and not hiding it in the discussion, or doing what CBAC does and providing a text paragraph describing the details in the section where they list avalanche problems.

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Originally Posted by North

I am growing increasingly agitated when seeing this sentence in field reports this season. Clearly the messaging is not getting through. My question is how do we fix that? I have some involvement on the education side, and am all ears on ideas for more effectively ingraining the message that a lack of flashing red instability clues are not an indicator of stability for a PWL.

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I too am very interested in this. My first thought, at the awareness level when we first introduce red flags - we introduce them as "indicators that dangerous conditions may exist." Perhaps we need to be more explicit that lack of red flags does not equal green light? At what level should we start getting into the weeds of behavior of specific types of avalanche problems and red flags that you can expect/not expect to see for each?

Yeah, midpack surface hoar is not something we normally deal with.

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Originally Posted by adrenalated

Yep and the problem is, for much of the state, the PWL of concern is ABOVE the mid-pack slab. It's not the depth hoar like it is on many years. CAIC is starting to become a little more direct on this at least in the forecast discussions. All three forecast discussions (northern, central, and southern) are specifically calling out faceted layers buried in early February as the most concerning right now. In our hasty pits on Berthoud this weekend, very weak layers producing planer failures were very easy to find sitting above the dense mid-pack slab and ever-present depth hoar. I do think CAIC could be doing better to call this out in the forecast summary and not hiding it in the discussion, or doing what CBAC does and providing a text paragraph describing the details in the section where they list avalanche problems.



I too am very interested in this. My first thought, at the awareness level when we first introduce red flags - we introduce them as "indicators that dangerous conditions may exist." Perhaps we need to be more explicit that lack of red flags does not equal green light? At what level should we start getting into the weeds of behavior of specific types of avalanche problems and red flags that you can expect/not expect to see for each?

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Red Flag #6 - Listed avalanche problem lacks some or all of the physical clues of Red Flags 1-5? Maybe add that it's difficult to impossible to manage?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by adrenalated

Yep and the problem is, for much of the state, the PWL of concern is ABOVE the mid-pack slab. I do think CAIC could be doing better to call this out in the forecast summary and not hiding it in the discussion, or doing what CBAC does and providing a text paragraph describing the details in the section where they list avalanche problems.

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I am so grateful for the CBAC, they kick so much ass. Before yesterday's forecast, I thought to myself "they should talk a bit about surface hoar. We just don't get it that big (it's a very distinct 1" layer here), or that widespread around here very often" And sure enough, they talked a lot about it. They are so on top of their discussions, and travel advice, in a way that few other centers are.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by adrenalated

Yep and the problem is, for much of the state, the PWL of concern is ABOVE the mid-pack slab. It's not the depth hoar like it is on many years. CAIC is starting to become a little more direct on this at least in the forecast discussions. All three forecast discussions (northern, central, and southern) are specifically calling out faceted layers buried in early February as the most concerning right now. In our hasty pits on Berthoud this weekend, very weak layers producing planer failures were very easy to find sitting above the dense mid-pack slab and ever-present depth hoar. I do think CAIC could be doing better to call this out in the forecast summary and not hiding it in the discussion, or doing what CBAC does and providing a text paragraph describing the details in the section where they list avalanche problems.



I too am very interested in this. My first thought, at the awareness level when we first introduce red flags - we introduce them as "indicators that dangerous conditions may exist." Perhaps we need to be more explicit that lack of red flags does not equal green light? At what level should we start getting into the weeds of behavior of specific types of avalanche problems and red flags that you can expect/not expect to see for each?

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I would argue that the lack of red flags IS kind of what a green flag is, but that you cannot limit this to just huge huge red flags like cracking. If you include all possible red flags, and aren't seeing any, thats a green flag, but potential red flags, as we all know but it doesn't hurt to have a reminder of, are heuristic traps that have nothing to do with the snow, like summit fever, or not having backed off a line in a while, as well as just not having observed the snowpack develop over the course of the season etc etc etc.

but yea, I've heard similar things said out loud from smart people with degrees etc, mentioning the lack of severe red flags like cracking, with no discussion of whether or not there are more minor red flags.

What’s a green flag?


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by adrenalated

I too am very interested in this. My first thought, at the awareness level when we first introduce red flags - we introduce them as "indicators that dangerous conditions may exist." Perhaps we need to be more explicit that lack of red flags does not equal green light? At what level should we start getting into the weeds of behavior of specific types of avalanche problems and red flags that you can expect/not expect to see for each?

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At awareness level, I think it's sufficient to introduce the idea that red flags present = avalanche hazard present, and emphasize that no red flags =/ no avalanche hazard. Linking the "no red flags w/unstable snowpack" condition to a specific avy problem here is probably too much.

At L1 link the "no red flags w/unstable snowpack" condition to PWL. Emphasize that it's a uniquely non-communicative problem. Emphasize avoidance. Emphasizing avoidance specifically for PWL introduces the idea that other problems are manageable (potential can of worms/curriculum creep), but discussing management strategies for other problems is too much for L1 IMO.

Travel approach (beyond avoidance) for different types of avalanches seems like clear L2 curriculum. Awareness and L1 are about identifying hazard. L2 there's room to discuss how to manage hazard. Discussing management of surface instabilities vs. PWL seems appropriate here.

Some or all of this may already be happening. I don't remember much about it in my L1 or L2, but both are outdated reference points.

The trick is that L1->L2 transition. I think there are many that take a L1 and delay a L2 for a significant amount of time. So in my proposed progression you still may end up with a lot of relatively experienced L1 users that are aware of the unique behavior of a PWL, but might not have a detailed enough understanding to fully appreciate/respect it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KoxeBr3WRI

BIG PICTURE.

Trying to thread the needle in years with a bad PWL lead to things like "Total of six people caught in three avalanches in 24 hours"

In these type of years, (Realistic and conservative) terrain and goal management are what might keep you alive.

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Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KoxeBr3WRI

BIG PICTURE.

Trying to thread the needle in years with a bad PWL lead to things like "Total of six people caught in three avalanches in 24 hours"

In these type of years, terrain and goal management are what might keep you alive.

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Ya when you work regularly on the other side of probability, luck runs out faster.