Setting and sticking to a conservative plan.

Here in BC this year we have an uncharacteristically complicated and unstable snowpack. The issues are pretty fucking obvious, and the protocols for dealing with it (plan for the underlying hazard, rule out the hazardous terrain, and stick to the plan) are well established and are being aggressively promoted by the CAA. Yet, most of my (nonprofessional) ski touring network are persisting in risk management protocols (easing into progressively more challenging terrain) completely inappropriate to the actual hazard. I’m fine with being a contrarian, and sticking to my convictions, but it’s a sobering insight into human nature. WTF.

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Originally Posted by kootenayskier

Here in BC this year we have an uncharacteristically complicated and unstable snowpack. The issues are pretty fucking obvious, and the protocols for dealing with it (plan for the underlying hazard, rule out the hazardous terrain, and stick to the plan) are well established and are being aggressively promoted by the CAA. Yet, most of my (nonprofessional) ski touring network are persisting in risk management protocols (easing into progressively more challenging terrain) completely inappropriate to the actual hazard. I’m fine with being a contrarian, and sticking to my convictions, but it’s a sobering insight into human nature. WTF.

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I've been thinking about that a lot recently. I live in the east side of WA and we have some similar but less severe issues compared to BC. Last weekend I went skiing with my neighbor who is a guide. The acceptability of ruling out terrain while at the snowmobile and sticking to that was quite refreshing vs having ski partners that want to keep poking out further.

Some seasons you just have to enjoy meadow skipping. Sign it off and hopefully the next season is more typical. This is a bad year in BC for bc. It is what it is.

So... it's like every year in Colorado?

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Originally Posted by I've seen black diamonds!

So... it's like every year in Colorado?

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I'm heading up to Golden next week. Have been looking at the Av Can forecasts and talking to some friends up there... and keep coming back to "so its like mid winter Colorado". Although things may be worse up there than here right now. We're just dialing our plans back and will have fun lapping some lower angle stuff. Yes, this time of year is about planning your areas and route, sticking to that plan, and checking angles to be doubly sure.

Also heading that way in a few weeks. Trying to sort mellow terrain without overhead hazard.

I would guess two factors are pushing folks. One that the mellow terrain is getting tracked up. I don’t know much safe terrain so trying to sort where it is. Second we get a lot of false positive traveling in the bc and that leads us to be overconfident in decisions we make

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Yet, most of my (nonprofessional) ski touring network are persisting in risk management protocols (easing into progressively more challenging terrain) completely inappropriate to the actual hazard. I’m fine with being a contrarian, and sticking to my convictions, but it’s a sobering insight into human nature. WTF.

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Opinion: when dealing with a Persistent Weak Layer, this is the way to stay safe. The imperfect feedback loop and extreme spatial variability of the problem does not lead it's self by "testing" the snowpack by venturing into increasing hazardous terrain.

This is a lesson best learned from others. Humans are horrible at managing the risk inherent with low probability high consequence events.

The enemy is us. We want to go powder skiing with out friends. Sometimes, the only way to keep our addiction in check is to avoid the avalanche hazard entirely. For me, knowing how bad I want that fix, I have to avoid the temptation by not going backcountry skiing. I used to be much for of a fiend at that but me at risk. Nowadays I just go snowmobiling, XC skiing, lift riding, working and so on until conditions improve.

As mentioned, other people and ski tracks influence my decision making. It is a challenge to go to Bethoud Pass on a weekend and ski pow on your skiing meadow of choice.

Even for those outside of Colorado, consider reading the Forecast Discussion https://avalanche.state.co.us/?lat=4...63391113281249 from the CAIC. You can scroll backwards through time. There is a lot of wisdom regarding managing the heuristic traps of a Persistent Slab.

For those of you more accustomed to a continental snowpack, this must all seem pretty obvious. Here, these conditions are more of a once in a decade anomaly, and we don’t like to change. Easing into progressively more challenging terrain seems hard wired into most of my ski touring network. I recently debriefed with a close friend who (skiing with his inexperienced adult kids) but for compromised visibility on the last day of a 5 day trip, would almost certainly have skied a steep, shallow, unsupported line (which we’ve both skied many times before) on which two people got avalanched and died the day after. It was like he’d seen a ghost.

ex girlfriend: "the avalanche doesn't know you're an expert"

It’s interesting how wildly different the decision making and generally accepted practice is between continental and maritime snowpacks. My network is also like to “just see” how it is, but that doesn’t work for PWLs

All of Foggy's post is excellent as usual.

From talking to a CO buddy that just got back from Canukistan it really does sound like a typical mid-winter Colorado snowpack. Unusual for Canada. Remember that unusual conditions create unusual avalanches and as Foggy says... learn from others.

Reading the CO forecast discussions is great advice. Here is an accident report from Vail Pass several years ago that really highlights just how tricky persistent slab and deep persistent slab avalanches are to manage, and why the progressive "stepping up" mentality is dangerous when dealing with them: https://classic.avalanche.state.co.u...=504&accfm=inv

-the terrain had been ridden many, many times in the hours, days, and weeks leading up to the accident
-a lack of any obvious feedback such as cracking or collapsing, other than recent avalanches reported by CAIC
-although parts of the slope were extremely deep and beyond the range of human triggering, all it took was finding the one not-so-sweet spot where the slab was thinner
-these kinds of avalanches are rarely survivable

That last point is super important. You can get away with a lot when dealing with PS and DPS problems, especially as the likelihood of trigger decreases over time. You could even spend years poking the dragon and get away with it. But if you find that not-so-sweet spot.... you just die. Not something that I want to take my chances on, personally.

A friend sent me this recent picture posted by somebody in a Revy FB group. Pretty wild how people are still trying to get after it up there…

Looks like great skiing though! FOMO kicking in hard for folks I guess.

Attachment 444795

^^^ if you look closely you can see a third “ski track” from his balls dragging in the snow on the descent.


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Definitely a ballsy skintrack to go all the way across the slope. Holy shit

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Originally Posted by kootenayskier

I’m fine with being a contrarian, and sticking to my convictions, but it’s a sobering insight into human nature. WTF.

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A while back I was on the edge of an incident where one of the bro's took a ride, after that I started setting pre-trip goals and sticking to them period

I know the guy in the incident has taken at least 2 rides and the other guy didn't take a ride but he was in an incident where a partner was killed in an aviy, still it didnt seem to affect them or make them question their decision making process of which there was none

while I was freaked to be on the periphery of any incident

stay the course my friend

At least theyre going one at a time! But yikes… a lot of time on and under that slope

I think that recreationists adopting some of the principles of a run list as used in professional settings has a lot of merit. It's something we started doing in my little posse last year, and is extra relevant with this year's challenges in this region.

The argument that it's easier to make good choices when you have less distractions (ie not lured into a nice pow run) and lots of information resources (ie maps, avalanche report, weather, etc) in front of you is pretty hard to argue with IMO.

While we don't necessarily assign specific lines as Red or Green, we will identify terrain characteristics that are off the list for the day. So we might decide, for example, that with what we know before we go out, N aspects at TL or ALP are no go (Red) for the day. The trick then is to not get swayed by negative feedback that you experience in the field. It's OK in this game to add to the Red list due to things you observe in the field, but not to the Green list.

You can take back info you learn that day, and perhaps apply it to pushing out into new terrain tomorrow, but separating some of the risk assessment from the desire to have fun seems to be a good strategy.

https://www.drewhardesty.com/experti...nche-problems/

I’ll add this paper about strategic mindset written by Roger Atkins while he was at CMH for the 2014 ISSW.

I think it’s a good read, and having a mindset is very useful for sticking to a plan.
https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-sci...aper_O9.02.pdf

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Originally Posted by benzo92

https://www.drewhardesty.com/experti...nche-problems/

I’ll add this paper about strategic mindset written by Roger Atkins while he was at CMH for the 2014 ISSW.

I think it’s a good read, and having a mindset is very useful for sticking to a plan.
https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-sci...aper_O9.02.pdf

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Thanks for sharing that Atkins paper. I’m sure I’ve skimmed it before, but it’s during seasons like this one that it truly resonates.

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Originally Posted by kootenayskier

For those of you more accustomed to a continental snowpack, this must all seem pretty obvious. Here, these conditions are more of a once in a decade anomaly, and we don’t like to change.

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This is why I chose to live West of the Cascades. We don't really get a PWL here, even in funky years like this one. The only sketchy incident I've had in 20+ years of backcountry skiing was at Ymir hut in January on a similar year to this one. Friend triggered a slide that stepped down and went massive. Fortunately he stopped just above the crown. Never had a step down slide in the extreme maritime snowpack where I ski. It's very predictable and you are generally just dealing with the top layer.

When I started backcountry skiing 25 years ago in CO I remember seeing a tracked out slope at Berthoud Pass that slid to ground the next day. Seems much more of a game of Russian Roulette when you move away from the coast.

I can't deal with the anxiety of PWL (takes the fun out of bc skiing). I think I would just meadow skip or nordic ski if I was living in interior BC this year. Good news is models are starting to show the return to the way it should be; PNW and BC getting hammered by snow while the rest of North America gets jealous of us. This might get rid of the PWL you guys are dealing with.

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Originally Posted by thefortrees

A friend sent me this recent picture posted by somebody in a Revy FB group. Pretty wild how people are still trying to get after it up there…

Looks like great skiing though! FOMO kicking in hard for folks I guess.

Attachment 444795

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So I'm still in my infancy of back country, but why the fuck wouldn't you just skin up/bootpack the spine instead of taking that risk?

There are some big guns in revy but I think the question is why go up there right now period ?

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

There are some big guns in revy but I think the question is why go up there right now period ?

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Yeah, that was my first thought. Clearly someones been sticking to the mellow stuff bottom left. Maybe they got that FOMO.

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Originally Posted by Stuntmonkey

So I'm still in my infancy of back country, but why the fuck wouldn't you just skin up/bootpack the spine instead of taking that risk?

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Because if you can't skin it you sure as shit shouldn't be skiing it.

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Originally Posted by Stuntmonkey

So I'm still in my infancy of back country, but why the fuck wouldn't you just skin up/bootpack the spine instead of taking that risk?

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Because they are lazy. They probably figured skiing from that low spot saddle was the safest spot, or best snow, so if they went up the ridge, they would have to go down ridge. It also looks like it might be a pain in the but to stay right on that ridge where it is most safe versus the mindless skinning up the face.

But if you are going to skin up that face, their route is as good as you can do. Keep everyone at the safe spot lower left in the photo and send one person to break trail all the way to the top solo. Then others follow one at a time. That way, only one gets caught in a slide and you have a lot of eyes on that person ready for the search.

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Originally Posted by Wapow

Because if you can't skin it you sure as shit shouldn't be skiing it.

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This is the way!


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Originally Posted by Wapow

Because if you can't skin it you sure as shit shouldn't be skiing it.

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Somewhat. At times you might skin across a sketch area. One at a time. Etc.

No way they laid that track one at a time. It was a skin party.

Yeah. The ridge is the safe route. That bowl needs to be bulletproof to lay that skin track. And it was. On that day.

OR they all had their fingers crossed

https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/01/27/C...lanche-Safety/

something I would think about ^^ A good artical by a local writer bud

" In 2003, 29 people died in avalanches, including the La Traviata and Connaught Creek tragedies — roughly double the average number of annual fatalities at the time.

The avalanche conditions that year were exceptional. In November, rain had fallen to the mountaintops, encasing their peaks in ice. As a layer of snow accumulated on top, the ice deteriorated, leaving a weakness deep in the snowpack.

Current snow conditions in B.C. have been compared to that season. On Tuesday, the province put out a statement urging caution in the backcountry. Five people have died in avalanches in Canada since the start of this year, all of them in B.C. "

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Originally Posted by thefortrees

A friend sent me this recent picture posted by somebody in a Revy FB group. Pretty wild how people are still trying to get after it up there…

Looks like great skiing though! FOMO kicking in hard for folks I guess.

Attachment 444795

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european here and wow i'm impressed. i am curious about this picture and that terrain/context if you know more. Is it super deep in the bc or close to resorts/infrastructures (you guys have super cool high roads and access points).

kinda struggle to define who would set a skintrack like that, rando race Trab bros don't usually go for this sort of mega traverses, looks more like a frEeToUr bandit to me

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Originally Posted by oltrepiave

european here and wow i'm impressed. i am curious about this picture and that terrain/context if you know more. Is it super deep in the bc or close to resorts/infrastructures (you guys have super cool high roads and access points).

kinda struggle to define who would set a skintrack like that, rando race Trab bros don't usually go for this sort of mega traverses, looks more like a frEeToUr bandit to me

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Not sure if this works. It;s a feature called Glacier Crest Bowl in Rogers Pass. Not particularly far from the highway

https://goo.gl/maps/XXZF1x3XU5X7ot2v5

Screenshot. Cursor is approx location of bowl. Can be reached from the backside also via Asulkan valley
Attachment 445480

Thanks Lee, very interesting. I do hope I can get to share some considerations on our own terrain and snowpack soon, feels great to delve into the details of what happens in NA in general

To the OP: you are on the right track. The more I backcountry ski, the more I find safety is more about human psychology and how we view risk than the actual snow science. I heard the interior BC snowpack is extra touchy this year. When it is like this, my approach is to focus more on the terrain than the snowpack. Because if the snowpack is more unpredictable than you are willing to tolerate on your spectrum of risk, you can always choose terrain that is consistent with your acceptable level or risk; see "meadow skipping." It is not as glamorous but it is a good approach to have in your skillset.

Another thing you mention, that your partners are gradually upping the ante by progressing towards higher risk terrain "slowly." This works fine until it doesn't. Their implied assumption here is that they will push terrain and snowpack until they get the message to back off. Or, they will push and push, not get that warning, get lured into complacency, then get caught off guard. Or this approach will work all season long and nothing bad will happen, either because they are that dialed or they just got lucky. You just don't know and success in the mountains is not a great teacher. Sure, hopefully they get a gentle message they pushed too hard, but, they may not get a gentle message from the mountains. They could get the message they pushed to hard in the form of a scary/lethal experience. I would never discourage someone from pushing terrain, but it comes with more risk. It is good to be aware of when you are increasing risk.

A recent article on Wildsnow about the interior BC conditions. Seems thread has a bit of a focus there. I know that I have personally.

https://www.wildsnow.com/33699/the-s...grant-statham/

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Originally Posted by Wapow

Because if you can't skin it you sure as shit shouldn't be skiing it.

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I think this is an irresponsible answer to this question by a newb. There are many good reasons to NOT skin up anything you are about to ski.

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Originally Posted by muted reborn

I think this is an irresponsible answer to this question by a newb. There are many good reasons to NOT skin up anything you are about to ski.

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Agree. Kind of a curious comment. For the sake of discussion, you could choose not to skin up your descent just to minimize risk, since you would be exposed easily for 10x the amount of time it would take to descend it.

Maybe he means that he will only ski down something that he ascertains to be so safe he would hang out on it for hours... seems like a pretty high standard of confidence in the terrain/snowpack, but I can't really dictate to others what level of risk they should accept.

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Originally Posted by muted reborn

I think this is an irresponsible answer to this question by a newb. There are many good reasons to NOT skin up anything you are about to ski.

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Yeah. I just can't equate being in the line of fire for 1,2,3 hours, a complete sitting duck with a low chance of skiing off a slab, with skis that likely won't release in hike mode, compared to skiing a slope in a handful of minutes and getting the hell off it. Not to mention it's quite difficult to skin up a slope one at a time, but really easy to ski one at a time.

well the way things were that whole fucking slope could have sized 3 to ground right across that skin track ?

that sunrise hut in the artical is out of Golden quite a bit south i skied there in 2019 its a big fucking province and the pack is definalty changeable the guide told us the weather change for Burnie was right between terrace & smithers but the guy asking wildsnow should be asking his guide

this far north there used to be almost no snow professionals in the field to report conditions but Avcan now has had a local team of guide-forecasters out 5 days a week braaaping/ digging pits the last 2 years, nice new sleds/ big new truck/ chi-chi sledding gear and i assume they have deployed other teams in the province

2 more sled skiers in the west Chilcotin making 7 this year in the BC in BC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...nche-1.6747803

The avalanche has been categorized as a "Size 2, deep persistent slab."

"The slope was characterized as highly wind-affected, containing areas of deeply wind-drifted snow and areas where the snow cover was thin and rocky," said Avalanche Canada. "The crown depth was reported to be highly variable, between 40 and 130 cm."

Can add a solo ice climber that died on polar circus on the 93 North this weekend. Same guy who skied half dome on Yosemite .
https://gripped.com/news/yosemite-cl...ing-in-canada/

Pretty active out there in the Rockies and Purcell’s now that the sun is out. Slides to ground starting to show on all aspects and lots of slides are going full path….

We set the conservative plan to stick to exploration goals over decent related goals this season, not worth the Russian roulette of the deep basal facets that are not disappearing…A good freeze will allow a short window but stay focused out there! Ski for another season!