For real this time?
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/statu...n5LxL8N1sxcZ0Q
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For real this time?
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/statu...n5LxL8N1sxcZ0Q
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Looks like the shiite is hitting the fan
Voices of women happening now.
https://twitter.com/sfand4iran/statu...n5LxL8N1sxcZ0Q
Good luck to the people of Iran. They deserve better.
It’s the 40th day of mourning so where it goes from here is important
Nobody's getting laid in Iran
You know, this place has a unique ability to combine a thoughtful response with humor like few others.Quote:
Originally Posted by irul&ublo
Iranians are still in streets after 41 days. The longest protest since 1979. The regime falls when the people with guns, the police & soldiers, decide to either stop shooting civilians or switch sides and join the protests themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
IndeedQuote:
Originally Posted by ötzi
From what I was seeing in the Farsi tweet protests continue for new victims of the IRGC. The more they kill, the more they piss off the populace.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
I'm hoping this doesn't end well for the mullahs. Our backing of the Shah was stupid, but the mullahs were worse.
History repeat.
No worries, the "morality police" can find new jobs here the way things are heading..
Also, this happened yesterday:
Attachment 434739
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...ancestral-home
I'll believe it when I see it. The 2005 movie Syriana features a few lines that haven't aged a day with regard to how that part of the world operates and this one has been kicking around my head lately with regard to Iran:
"They let young people march in the street and then the next day shut down fifty newspapers. They have a few satellite dishes up on roofs, let 'em have My Two Dads, but that doesn't mean the Ayatollahs have relinquished one iota of control over that nation."
Yeah, I’m not predicting things will change, given not much changed after the Arab Spring uprisings, but I hope they do.Quote:
Originally Posted by idahospud
Such a great and underrated movieQuote:
Originally Posted by idahospud
It's a good movie but it's 17 years old and the people are pissed.
Yup, and they have been for a while. But Iran's pretty good at the whole oppressive regime thing. I'm not hopeful for 'em.Quote:
Originally Posted by ötzi
The key in my view is how Revolutionary Guards will go. They are a power in their own right, economic, political, not to mention the Ayatollah’s muscle. It seems like so far they’ve stood back.
No doubt CIA has assets on the ground trying to consolidate and organize the insurgency.
The Powers that be are not going away with out a very bloody fight. I know most people would not pay the price required.Quote:
Originally Posted by idahospud
The only solution is to elect Ronny Ray Gun Zap Drumpf so we can release the hostages.
So I'm half Persian (my dad was born and raised in Iran). My family all got out in the 50's and 60's so I really don't have much personal skin in this fight other than wanting the culture of my family to be able to flourish. I work with a Persian woman however who's family is all still over there. (Aside: as per standard with Persian women, she's of course hot and always impeccably dressed/made up) We were having a zoom one-on-one meeting a couple of weeks ago and at the end I casually asked her about how her family was doing. She immediately broke down crying and went through how she can no longer hear from her family because the government has blocked most internet and cell use, how before that happened she begged her family to not go out into the streets because if you did, it was 50/50 if you would come back, etc. You could feel the intense sadness and rage in her as an Iranian woman. I don't know how this will play out but after seeing what this has done to her personally, I can only hope that this time it will be different. Unfortunately, I know that is a tall task and will require so much blood to be spilled on behalf of people like her family. It is all just so fucked. Fuck the mullahs.
And they could go either way, like the security apparatus in any failing state. If it starts to become clear that the ship is going down they will jump off.Quote:
Originally Posted by TBS
^^^Yup - big question is whether they side with the protesters, or side with themselves and seize power in a military coup?
Good question. I hadn't really considered the latter but yeah.
At least there isn’t a Shia Sunni dynamic there.
No idea if IRGC leadership are True Believers - *guessing* the rank and file have been selected/indoctrinated to be, and to obey without question
Then the question will be whether IRGC could subdue an already pissed off and organized opposition…
There are definitely differences in religion that play a role there and a major question is going to be how well the revolutionaries can tolerate and trust each other. Iran is much more diverse than the Mullahs would like. Including Kurds, Christians, and other minorities whose view of Islam is quite diverse:
https://mobile.twitter.com/shirzannn...Cysezahp4sAAAA
Couple days ago a since-deleted account on Twitter was asking people not to call them "protestors" but "revolutionaries." And not "Iran" etc but "the mullahs" or the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strange what sounds better or worse if you ask me, but given the acceleration of atrocities and attacks on civilians it makes sense that they'd decided to take up arms against the mullahs.
What a mess. Best of luck to them, and may it be quick--the scale of this looks like quick revolution is the only hope to curtail massive bloodshed.
Christians comprise less than 0.5% of the population. I think there’s like 20k Jews left. Bahktiaris are like 1.5%.
The Kurds OTOH, I hadn’t considered. Ten million in Iran. The best fighters in Western Asia, and have been trying to secure a homeland for a while.
Did you find a source you'd trust for those numbers? My understanding is that admitting to anything--even Shia Islam--can be fraught.
I used to work for a family that had emigrated from Iran and they talked about the place like it was 1984--and still went back for visits! I'm still unsure who was what even though they were all open about it to a sometimes uncomfortable degree. My main lesson was IDK what those people are thinking. So take all that with salt. The link I posted is one of many openings to a whole warren if you want to peak down the rabbit hole.
I got the population numbers from
https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ran-population - note this sez 9000 Jews
https://www.voanews.com/a/challenges...t/6326767.html sez 20,000 Jews
Got number of Christians from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east...freely/2475243 - I"ve also seen estimates of 1.5 million Christians, from evangelical christian sources
Got number of Kurds here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds, which match up to the 10% estimates I've seen. I don't know the sunni/shia mix among the Kurds - further west they tend to be sunni
You can argue around the edges of these numbers but it still doesn't matter - the population is at least 85% Shia. But again, the Kurds can be a force in their own right
Wonder if the revolutionaries would be willing to cede NW Iran to the Kurds for a homeland if they help defeat the mullahs?
Besides US/NATO intelligence on the ground trying to influence events, no doubt CCP is there too. Gotta believe Xi would like a secular government there. And fewer fanatics with nukes is in all the great powers interest
I wasn't suggesting different numbers would be better, I'm more curious how reliable you expect sources to be. Like polling in Russia, the potential consequences for answering wrong are likely to influence results, so the methods and sources are of interest.Quote:
Originally Posted by TBS
I've seen a few types of in-fighting on Twitter over, for example, whether MEK can be trusted or if they're just like the mullahs. But at this distance (and given the potential for outside influences as you noted) it's hard to guess if that's actually real or a planted wedge trying to discourage unity among revolutionaries.
I'm not sure if an inconveniently-timed revolution is necessarily something either CIA or Xi would actively support, but I'd put money on two things: Turkey doesn't want the Kurds to have a homeland anywhere, and Putin wants his drones-- and both of those parties are interested enough to meddle.
MEK has had an interesting history. Not sure where there money is coming from - guessing it's the diaspora in USA, but no real idea. And no idea how they are perceived by the Iranians.
Revolutions make for strange bedfellows. And Great Powers interference, which will no doubt include Turkey.
It looks like MEK was very much supported by USSR through most of its existence and Russia after that for a while. And lately probably the US at times. Strange bedfellows indeed.
I worked with and eventually was employed by a family that immigrated from Iran when the Shah was overthrown. They lived on Long Island where a large number of Iranian Jews relocated, also a large population in LA. When I first met them in the mid 90"s they said they were Persian, I was totally stumped by what that meant. As I got to know them better they shared with me the family history, how they got here etc. What they didn't tell me was how they were able to get their assets out of Iran. They were a very prominent family in the community, the father published a "Persian Newsletter" to keep members of the community up to date on news, births, deaths etc. They always said there were about 25,000 Jews left in Iran. They said the number was small enough that they were pretty much left alone. The newsletter was sent to people in Iran, he was careful never to print anything that might be controversial or catch the attention of the authorities. That was the best job I ever had, wonderful people, couldn't be nicer or more generous.
Riot Police sent to put down a demonstration in Mahabad back the protesters
https://twitter.com/thomasvlinge/sta...951112704?s=12
There seems to be two Mahabads in Iran - one in western Iran (pop 168k) and another in Isfahan with pop of like 4K- guessing this happened in the larger town
Qatar doesn't seem like the best country for a soccer team to defect to. The hell they are going to catch back home, I can only imagine.
New form of protest just dropped
Attachment 435676
https://twitter.com/silvermanjacob/s...cgT8S_CNjkczZg
Lulz. Iran demands the USA be kicked out of the World Cup for putting an Iran flag up without the Islam emblem in support of protesters.
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