High single digit price increases by some of the largest companies in the world
https://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffet...220539307.html
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High single digit price increases by some of the largest companies in the world
https://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffet...220539307.html
My dad could get a 40ft container from Shenzhen to western NC for $3,400 this time last year. It is now $12,000.
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Polyass in 3 2 1
The creature from Jekyll island rears its head.
Fuck the bankers.
Doesn't have to happen if people relax and discuss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
Back in late January I had a tel-conference with my financial planner and one subject I brought up as a concern was inflation. I was assured that wasn't a problem and my BS meter pegged.
3 stimulus checks along with strangulated demand, lots of people sitting on cash and lack of spending? As we get back to normal this had to happen.
Will Powell be able to pump the brakes on inflation? How best to go about it?
Go full tinfoil
The US dollar hegemony has allowed us to export our inflation.
But is that ending?
By design perhaps? SDR? Print so many dollars the USD implodes? New world currency order?
Hard assets are the safety net. Hard assets e.g. real estate is off the hook. Metals? Should be higher. Compare paper silver to physical. Insane. Crypto? Similar rush to “safety”
We need another crash.
Pretty sure $12k is more normal than $3,400. Inflation has been here for years, the BLS and the FED just massage the numbers so as to not freak out the sheeple. If you pay for things it is obvious. As far as needing a crash, nope, no thanks. Just keep kicking that can please.Quote:
Originally Posted by stealurface831
ok here is my rant
we are fucked
inflation is out of control but we are being manipulated and we are being bullshitted
by late 2022 or by spring of 2023 the shit will hit the fan and it will catch up with us hard just like 2008 and every other bust prior
we now have another one term president who is asleep at the wheel and just went from another one term president that was injected into our daily lives constantly wtf?
the amount of "free" and "cheap" money running around is bad, real bad, I just got a nice little hand writtten note from my bank begging me to take out a home equity loan WTF? I don't need it, but other people who don't need it think it's great and are taking it cause they can buy shit that makes them happy. what a country where buying shit sooths the emptiness inside, hey don't get me wrong I went and bought a 65k van, but hey I got the money not the credit. People are taking all this free money and running up the tab just like 2007 same shit, it all feels good looks good right now, but at some point you gotta pay for it
the gov't has been running up the deficit at a rate never seen before have you seen one poltician or buracrap talking about paying it down? Nope? Thanks boomers for being the most selfish mother fuckers out there, at least your parents the so called "greatest generation" new how to pay taxes and build highways and throw down for all kinds of other great public works projects
We quashed all the political and social unrest thanks to the internet, people are so buried deep in the internet they aren't really aware of what is going on
The fake wall street is some sort of bariometer of how great society is doing, but it's not, most of this country is fucked by the wall street not enriched by it, as soon as interest rates climb alot of these companies who a neck deep in debt will be struggling.
No one wants to solve real problems like failing infistructure, bad highways, shitty for profit medical care, and shitty education, lack of teaching trades to kids, cause college is what it's all about to feed the machine right? At some point massive change is needed in this country, but we are too scared and too many people are making too much money so why change?
Take a sheet of 1/2 osb, it was 15 bucks a year ago, it's 45 bucks today? The tree isn't charging any more money, the worker isn't getting that much more an hour, transportation costs are up but not by thousands. So how do you justify a 30 dollar more charge? It's greed the spineless politicians in washington aren't asking the hard questions because people are profiting and that's ok. Right? Some one needs to put the commodiities dealers and companies like seirria pascific, the koch family, and lousiana pasific up front and start asking them questions as to how a piece of materials can cost that much money. And those tarrfis? american business men love them.
FKNA Fred. Well done.
You're more right than wrong. 340% YoY lumber price increase https://www.businessinsider.com/lumb...uilders-2021-5Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
The question is how long can the feds pretend massive increases aren't happening to commodities across the boards.
It's coming.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
That's the most coherent thing Fred has ever posted, and possibly the only one I mostly agree with.
Nope, a little over a year ago it was $2k or so to get a can here from Taiwan and now it's $10-12k. It used to be you'd order it on Monday and have it delivered Tuesday, filled and picked up Wednesday then on a boat by the weekend. Now you order for delivery 12 months out. I work with companies that are paying extortion fees of a couple of thousand dollars a day to keep their containers on the dock so they can eventually get on a boat rather than sent back. Getting space on a boat is another thing entirely even if you're willing to pay the 12k. One of my companies currently has 46 containers filled and they're somewhere between the factory and never never land, we have no inventory left here in North America and no way to nail down when stuff might arrive. The whole thing sucks.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Quality rant, Fred. We are EFFED. And no politician (on either side) has the balls to call it out so boldly because they're all too afraid to be the pin that pops that balloon. So they'll just keep kicking the can down the road, PRAYING it keeps going juuuuuust long enough so it's the next guy's problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Ahem...its "transitory"Quote:
Originally Posted by Deebased
Our friends siding quote tripled on them between quote last fall and when everything had to be ordered in March. We built out our basement and 2x4s that were 2 bucks a few months back are 10 bucks each now.
My neighbor owns a car dealership and keeps laughing his ass off at the used car market pricing. He can't keep new cars on the lot.
I doubt semiconductor prices ever come down, as this market is showing what people are really willing to pay.
There is alot of money out there and the only thing not changing seems to be salaries...
As long as the American worker, blue or white collared, is competing with 6 billion others off shore, there will be no significant inflation.
The last time we had inflation bad enough to bring on 20% interest rates, unions were leapfrogging each other with wage and benefit concessions from major corporations. Now we have no unions and zero interest rates, with a Fed chairman saying, eh, no whoop, every few months.
The crazy thing about lumber prices is that there were no supply side issues causing the price increases. Most lumber is domestic and mills were deemed essential. The lumber price increase is just pure demand and greed...
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Fuel surcharges implemented during the last price hike never went away. Maybe the same surcharge model permanently works its way into other products and services.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nickwm21
fify.
My understanding based on reporting is that demand is significantly outstripping supply in the US lumber market.Quote:
Originally Posted by nickwm21
There are actually supply side issues for engineered lumber.
Glue availability has fucked up OSB, plywood and glulam (& other types) production. Less frequently used sizes/types are just unavailable; mfrs just bailed on those to make the popular items. Large builders have stocked up on availability too which has further fucked .with supply and pricing
1)Great Rant by FredQuote:
Originally Posted by gravitylover
2)Good thread - lets not cunt it up
3)Gravity - just curious - what are you bringing in? (dont want/need specifics) - Just more for curiosity....
Don’t forget the Canada tariff.Quote:
Originally Posted by nickwm21
Finishing a sidewall project. Red cedar shingles at $240 a bundle. And I can’t even get them.
To the Moon Alice...
Attachment 373487
Nice Fred. 100% agree.
I'm guessing Powell won't raise rates until it gets closer to the next election. Just a hunch.
And whatabout the stimmies? Better get another one out soon lest the spigot dries.
12-18 months, tops. I'm waiting.
log prices still cheapQuote:
Originally Posted by nickwm21
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...om-cheap-trees
As long as homeowners are going to be swarming to home despot to build shit projects, retail prices are up.
Fred's rant is good, but is there data to back up his point about spending on credit? IOW, are people borrowing to buy crazy shit, or is there just flat out too much cash?
Talking their book.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Anybody bought a flat screen lately? Clothes? Washing machine? Car?
And, no, bicycles don't count. Virus demand. Soon gone. I'm waiting for really cheap gravel bikes, barely used.
^^ You're gonna be waiting awhile.
Or is it people competing for certain commodities (lumber*) and entire other categories aren’t particularly inflated? Sure it’s May, but there’s a gear swap, are people going crazy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
clearly people want to find inflation based on this thread.
*edit to clarify - framing lumber and construction sheet goods. Hardwood lumber & cabinet birch plywood hasn’t gone up much at all near me.
I dunno. I've been wondering how there are SO many "average" assholes running around out there with shiny new SUVs now that the average car price has recently surpassed $40K. But then I found that 84-month car loans are now a thing, and apparently even sometimes 10-year (120 month) car loans. WTF?! Now it all makes sense. People are gonna LOVE making those big car payments after their warranty's fried and their car starts having expensive repairs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ar-11613683827
I'm also hearing about more and more people cashing in HELOCs to take advantage of record high RE prices. Yet another driver of remodeling going bonkers. Is it the majority? Probably not, but enough to have an impact.
I think there's a LOT more borrowing going on than people want to let on to.
Uh, there’s numbers
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
I sometimes sit and ponder how much cash I would have on hand if my two kids who have been in daycare for the last year had been at home the entire time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Then I think about my retired parents who typically ate out weekly or more and flew cross country 2x or more with a side trip to Europe every other year. The SS and pension checks didn’t stop coming in...
Between supply chain disruptions and retired and WFH people with money to spend it's not surprising there's inflation. The federal unemployment is still keeping some workers at home until it ends in Sept. so labor shortages. (Might be good to end that sooner rather than later--if people have to go back to work the holdouts might get shots.) Remember the TP shortage? Remember the big stuck boat? Remember the pile up of ships waiting to unload? I don't think people understand the extent to which the pandemic has disrupted the global economy and is still disrupting it.
The question is how long it will take before we find out if price hikes are a blip or permanent. I figure at least a year, maybe longer considering how much of the world is unvaccinated.
While there are a lot of people with money to burn, there are an awful lot of Americans living in tents.
A lot of the inflation warnings are coming from corporations who don't want their taxes raised. A lot of it is coming from the right, now that they are out of power. Big deficits didn't bother them in 2017.
People have been warning of inflation since the Great Recession started to turn around--sooner or later they'll be right. But sooner or later?
Good piece on 60 minutes sunday about the chip shortage. A lot of chip capacity went into computers and other WFH electronics. The scary thing is--China has been unsuccessful in trying to build an advanced chip industry, the world's biggest chip maker is in Taiwan . . . .
so all your financial jeniuses - how do I protect all my pillow-cases full of cash in this inflation scenario? Are there pre-emptive moves - best assets? Or just wait and then bury it in treasury bonds?
I agree with most of what FF said, but the assessment that the pres/gov isn't interested in doing any real infrastructure work is incorrect. The proposed infrastructure bill is very ambitious, and certainly not indicative of anyone being asleep at the wheel. Obviously the Party of No is opposed, but that's just how they are. If the blues can get this through it will be the biggest expansion of government involvement in society in generations.
I've seen the same huge increases in framing lumber costs but zero diminution in demand from consumers. They see the hypothetical values of their homes going to the moon and just pay whatever we ask. I recently raised my labor rates and didn't hear a peep. I've also found that costs for hardwood and cabinet grade ply have been stable.
Here's a great article about lumber. https://www.vox.com/22410713/lumber-prices-shortage
A friend who has a factory in Taiwan confirms the container problems. They are making things like crazy but then they just sit around on boats or at docks for weeks. The increased cost is absorbable for his business since the products are high value, but bulkier, lower value stuff will get more expensive.
I'm personally in favor of a major correction in all of this nonsense, especially since I don't borrow money, ever, and inflation will just erode my savings. The stock market, especially, seems bubbly.
Interesting synopsis on durable goods and income:
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/30/wt...durable-goods/
And his take on the chip shortage:
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/05/03/in...chip-industry/
And it's about to get worse thanks to Chia (XCH)..
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...1-4-1030373374
Labor shortages stem from kids still learning from home, no daycare, fear of getting c19 in public facing jobs, caring for older relatives, and low wages/tips. Plenty of anti maskers and anti vaxxers out there making the work atmosphere extra difficult.Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
"A lot of the inflation warnings are coming from corporations who don't want their taxes raised. A lot of it is coming from the right, now that they are out of power. Big deficits didn't bother them in 2017."
100% agree w this. The money transfer (Tax Act of 2017) to people that didn't need any more money may have sparked this whole mess.
Tariffs are a big factor in the price rises too. Not only are the imports more expensive it allowed US producers to push up prices along w the foreign competition.
thats always been there to protect you from those syrup suckers up narthQuote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
wood is a commodity it goes up/ down/ sideways/ into oversupply/ into undersupply
and thats why you can't get it right now
At a BBQ event (2008-ish) I was cooking a burger for the manager of the canfor super mill and I made coments about those americans fucking us over (again) on softwood duties and he said " thats not such a big deal I don't know why they even bothered to settle it (probably because the American will fuck with it agian) but i will tell you what really fucks us up if the exchange goes up even 5 cents we are screwed "
within a year the Canuck dollar had gone way up, I seem to remember lumber was 200$ a thousand board ft or sft every thing was way cheap which means mills & manu couldn't sell anything, it was real cheap for buddy lunchkit to buy shit on e-bay but maybe he should keep tht money for when he loses the job ?
if you can wait for the prices to drop I would do so
https://www.cclgroup.com/docs/defaul...rsn=ecc82fc8_4
2007 ish the dollar was at least par, in any case this is all above my pay grade, i should just shut my mouth and complain about the cost of a 2x4 like all you lunch kits
I'm not convinced it is true inflation, it's a short term shift in the market but a significant shift that will see a return. It is a definite shift in the market for disposable income as all things tourism, sports, service, entertainment and arts have suffered due to lockdowns and restrictions. All of the money that was being spent there isn't being saved, it just shifted to other things without an elastic supply. Home improvement DIY, appliances are seeing heavier use, computer gaming, etc. As the markets for tourism, sports, service, entertainment and arts reopen, the demand on all these other disposable income items will plummet rapidly as people go outside. Shipping will ease as consumer good demand drops.
Remember how much money Hollywood made in 2019? $45.8 Billion globally. In 2020 it was $12.4 Billion. $33 Billion in revenue went somewhere and it sure wasn't into savings. MLB, NBA, NFL all took massive hits too.