http://unofficialnetworks.com/2017/0...ion-from-noaa/
Possibly an EL Nino year....? If I read that correct...
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http://unofficialnetworks.com/2017/0...ion-from-noaa/
Possibly an EL Nino year....? If I read that correct...
"ENSO-Neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18." -NOAA's prediction this month
so, normal winter hedging to maybe weak el nino
(it's still pretty early, tho)
That's what I was thinking...too early to make statements. I'm way too stoked for BBI18 to think of a shit snow year lol
I just wet my finger and put it in the air.Quote:
Originally Posted by acinpdx
Came up with the same answer you did.
My roofer said the Farmers Almanac has CA down for a wet winter. Ya, right.
so it's a 50% chance of being 100% wrong or right?
I like those odds
I bet after 1000 years of advancement in science, meteorologists still wont be able to predict long term
All I hope is that the "Blob" doesnt return this fall.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
August update, as of today
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-Neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across most of the Pacific Ocean. ENSO-Neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.
Partly cloudy chance of showers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny Satch
La Nina potentially on tap. I personally like Cliff:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/0...s-weather.html
My quest for a big pow ski continuesQuote:
Originally Posted by puma
The latest prediction from NOAA. Mild La Niña on tap....maybe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.beab7f75bc93
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weath...kes/779886001/
Straight from NOAA: Oct. 12, 2017: La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18
Future updates available via this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...enso_advisory/
thx steve!
another El Nino yeasr, gonna be a good time to ride the surf!
No
NOAA issued its fall ENSO forecast. Good news for wildfire stricken california and colorado. For everyone else....not so much.
El Nino watch in effect.
50-55% chance of El Nino onset for fall period, sept-nov.
Chance increases to 70% for winter period, dec-feb.
After what T’ride and Taos had to endure last year it only seems fair
One of the local car dealerships is running an add claiming a “strong El Niño with record snow fall for Colorado”. Of course they are also having a “sale” on awd vehicles. I don’t know where they get their weather data from but I hope they are right. Of course no one really has any clue what will happen in any given area.
Heard that yesterday and laughed. They don’t know shiiiit.Quote:
Originally Posted by GPP33
I’m calling for above average snowfall in the PNW, because I’m moving there in November. Strong or weak El Niño, La Niña, doesn’t matter. Gonna be a good winter.
Dry drought years still mean 400" for PNW and UT. So it is really everyone else who has to do the weather worrying every year.
So maybe good news for Mammoth and Tahoe this season?
There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018
(September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.Attachment 247545
LCC, UT is "above average" with the average being 500". I like the sound of that :-)
Pray to Ullr we dont have a Modoki El NinoQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
The water is super warm in San Diego, so I hope it is just a standard El Nino pattern.
That is not true. A bad year in the PNW means its too warm to keep the resorts open and you get more rain than snow.Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineKevin
Utah has a 400 inch guarantee? Don't make me laugh. Utah has terrible years all the time, Kev.
FYI, you doof, Alta has been below 400 inches five out of the last ten years. Five of the last seven years have been below 400 inches with two abysmal sub-300 years. Utah is the schizo of snowfall. Incredible snow one year, mediocrity the next.
An average year would be ok in Missoula, I guess. The problem runs into when we have above average temps. Missoula is not very high. That can mean icy in town, like usual when it defrosts during the day and freezing at nice, but it can also mean that + rain at our local ski hills.
My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot...emisphere.html
An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.
"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.pdf
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis:El Niñois favored to form in the next couple of months andcontinue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75%chance).
ENSO-neutral continued during September, but withincreasingly more widespread regions of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across theequatorial PacificOcean (Fig. 1). Over the last month, all four Niño index values increased, with the latest weekly values in each region near +0.7C(Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also increased during the last month(Fig. 3), due to the expansion and strengtheningofabove-average temperaturesat depthacrossthe equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4).Convection was increasingly suppressed over Indonesia and around theDate Line (Fig. 5). Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the western and east-central Pacific,with some of the strongest anomalies occurring over the eastern Pacific duringthe past week. Upper-level wind anomalieswere easterly over the east-central Pacific. Overall, the oceanic and atmosphericconditionsreflected ENSO-neutral, but withrecent trends indicative of a developing El Niño. The majority of models in theIRI/CPC plume predict El Niñoto formduring the fall and continuethrough the winter(Fig. 6). The official forecastfavorsthe formation of a weak El Niño, consistent withthe recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance;click CPC/IRI consensus forecastfor the chance of each outcome for each 3-monthperiod). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8November2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction CenterNational Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/National Weather ServiceCollege Park, MD 20740
Mt. Baker has had only one season in its history below 400". Other than that, yeah pretty much.Quote:
Originally Posted by neckdeep
El Nino or? Not sure what that means anymore. I'm just glad it finally started raining in the PNW!
Those are grim maps
GRIM MAPS!
GRIM MAPS, I SAY!
Winter 2018: Taos gets wet
After last year, Taos deserves to get wetQuote:
Originally Posted by homebrewd
I was worried about this before but things seem off to a good start
And my final one is now available:https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/11/north-american-winter-outlook-2018-19.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by Jellybeans1000
Extract:
- I forecast California to have an above average snowfall season.
- I forecast Colorado/Utah/NM/AZ to have an average, maybe even slightly above average snowfall season
- I forecast the PNW and BC to have a below average snowfall season.
- I forecast the Eastern US (New England and Mid Atlantic) to have a moderately-strongly above average snowfall season, particularly in December and February
I hate wishing that people are wrong when they've done the hard work, but I hope you're wrong about the PNW/BC. If you're right.... Thank God my home mountain is Baker.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jellybeans1000