Vibes++++ to friends and family.
Crappy way to end the year. Stay safe folks.
Vibes++++ to friends and family.
Crappy way to end the year. Stay safe folks.
Fuck me, not good.
Damn! Thoughts to all who knew and loved them. Wishing you all a safe 2014.
What a way to end the year. Its a big reminder to be careful out there.
Vibes to those who loved and knew him+++
Completely crappy way to end the year.
RIP
Sucks. Sounds like a local dude from Fraser. For those not familiar, Parkview is challenging mountain to negotiate with not many places to hide. Massive windloading.
Attachment 147592
vibes. 3 deaths so far to close out the year. exactly the same number that closed out 2012 (for the 2012/2013 season). hopefully the trend will slow going into 2014.
RIP
rog
I usually have you on ignore but am using a different computer.Quote:
Originally Posted by icelanticskier
http://www.avalanche.org/accidents.php?date=2012-2013
my thoughts to the family and friends of the deceased. Sad way to end the year.
That sucks.
Got out on Berthoud yesterday. Forecast said moderate at or above treeline, but this jong thought things seemed pretty touchy for moderate, even well below treeline. Not faulting CAIC; I think I just need to adjust my interpretation of "moderate".
Be careful out there.
Shitty news.
Yeah, I'm also not too sure about the CAIC ratings either. I feel like last year, things would have been rated considerable under the same conditions I've been hearing about (accidents aside, of course). I felt that if there were pockets of considerable, the rating was considerable - erring on the conservative side. Now, with pockets of considerable, it seems the ratings are moderate. That's just my non-forecaster opinion, but it does seem pretty inconsistant with last year. I'm certainly not alone in this opinion, as its been brought up in conversation by other people I've spoken with this year as well.
"Moderate" is a terrible word for an avy rating, imo. Another word should be used. Like "caution" or something like it.
Rog
The CAIC uses the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale.
This is the same scale used by the UAC, CAC, NWAC, etc.
I haven't seen the CAIC use pockets of considerable, moderate, etc. for a couple of years now. I think it is important to read the danger scale and understand the conditions currently happening in the snowpack. The scale is based on a combination of the expected likelihood, size, and distribution of avalanches. We have a different snowpack right now than we had last year and it is totally different in the Front range zone vs. the Aspen zone, vs. the steamboat zone.
Vibes to the family and friends of yesterday's victim. Sad news for sure.
So "moderate" is the Winter equivalent of a 50% chance of showers Summer forecast?
In the end, whether you're caught in an avy on a moderate or low danger day, or struck by lightning above treeline with a zero % of precip forecast, you're just as dead. Small comfort what the forecast said conditions were supposed to be like will provide to those you leave behind. Obviously local observations should carry equal, or greater weight than regional forcasts, in any season.
yea but the more precise they are and the more specific their ratings, the more gapers are going to take every sentence in the advisory to heart, and in turn take less precautions out of bounds. i think moderate is a fine descriptor. if you had a moderate chance of getting shot at a bar, you would not go into said bar..Quote:
Originally Posted by icelanticskier
"Moderate" confuses many, whether they read every word of an advisory or not. "Moderate" is a green light for many people/parties that have their sights set on a particular line. Even when pits are dug and discussed, the decision to ski that line has been 95% made whether the results show some instability or not. Imo.
Rog
One more reason the avalanche forecast is just one tool to have in the toolbox. It is not the end all decision maker.
Very true
Rog
Quote:
Originally Posted by icelanticskier
While you are probably right, who's fault is that?
My favorite analogy is, Would you walk into a bar if there was a moderate chance of being beaten to a bloody pulp?
The rider, of course.
Rog
as much as I'd like to argue about a objective one word rating to do much anything in life
i'm just offerin vibes to those who knew him.
and hopes for a safe new year for the tribe
Took my response to the other thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBear
Well said dread head shred dog. Take it to the CAIC feedback threadQuote:
Originally Posted by skifishbum
CAIC does a pretty solid job, but I do agree the Moderate rating the past few days seemed to be missing the mark with all the activity. It was all out there though.
I thought vibes threads were reserved for the general forum? No disrespect meant to the victim or those who knew him, but some discussion of what's included under the heading of "moderate" doesn't seem inappropriate for the slide zone.Quote:
Originally Posted by simplypow
It's hard enough to get some people to read the forecasts (let alone understand them); how many folks here are going to go digging for the feedback thread?
CAIC updated their report:
Accident Summary
PRELIMINARY REPORT
A backcountry split-boarder was buried and killed just off the northeast ridge of Parkview Mountain, west of Willow Creek Pass, around 1:15PM. Two companions found the victim using avalanche transceivers. They located and extricated the victim, performed CPR for 25 minutes, but to no avail. Search and rescue retrieved the victim from the field and transported him overland to Willow Creek around 6:15PM.
This link was posted in the Berthoud thread. Georgio was the victim.
http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/9...ty-dirth-grand
He is a really good guy. I am for the better for knowing him.
RIP Georgio. Never met him, but always appreciated his condition reports in the Berthoud threads.
Sucks to lose one of our own. Never met him, but also appreciated his contributions in the Berthoud thread.
Reporting like this really pisses me off:
Quote:
The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.
I met him in Wyoming when I was attempting the Grand. He took pictures of us from the Middle. Definitely a nice guy. RIP and vibes to his friends and family.
That particular reporter is not known for being constrained by the fact. Not disagreeing, but what part of it rubbed you raw. The fact that Parkview may be in the Steamboat Zone (I don't know)? The fact that it is an avalanche forecast an opposed to a absolute of what the danger is?Quote:
Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark
The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.
For starters.
Can't speak for Makers, but there's a number of inaccuracies in that single statement:Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
-Willow Creek Pass is the boundary between the Front Range and Steamboat zones. Parkview Mountain is in the Steamboat zone.
-the term is Considerable, not Considerate
-Considerable danger is level 3, not level 2
-with the new format, the CAIC no longer gives danger ratings based on aspect, only based on elevation. Avalanche problems are described by aspect and elevation.
-the danger for the Front Range zone was Considerable (L3) near and above treeline and Moderate (L2) below treeline on the date of the accident
-the danger for the Steamboat zone was Moderate (L2) at all elevations on the date of the accident
We'd been talking in Clear Creek County the past few weeks about how we felt like the 'moderate' rating was a bit relaxed considering what we were seeing out there. Not blaming CAIC as they have a TON of ground to cover and given the spatial variability in one drainage let alone an entire forecast zone you can't really fault them too hard. The big issue here is the tricky nature of the persistent slab problem. These bastards are NOT to be trusted/tested in my opinion. Their party had one member descend the slope safely before it failed on Georgio. Persistent slabs scare the shit outta me and are a typical in CO. People get upset when I say our snowpack sucks and that I don't trust it as far as I can throw it, but incidents like these and the many others over the years go to prove my point. VIBES to George and all involved. So sad to lose such a positive person. Please, when you're out there between now and may think about where you live and the reputation our snowpack carries. It may just save your life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by icelanticskier
i don't know shit, but if you said there was a moderate chance of your boat sinking or a moderate chance of your tv exploding in front of you or a moderate chance of your house burning down while you sleeping i wouldn't fuck with anything like that.
after reading and watching so much avalanche stuff here over the years, moderate to me means ski at the resort.
Although he writes professionally, the point on confusion is made quite nicely by this field reporter covering "steamboat" avalanche...
"The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.
Persistent slabs and wind-loaded snow are the main cause of the heightened avalanche danger.
Reid Tulley can be reached at 970-887-3334
come up with any analogy's you choose. when it comes to the avalanche game, "moderate" is not so clear as it would be with burning houses, bar brawls, and sinking boats. staring at steep hillsides covered with perfect powder snow is a whole different deal where our minds are thinking "face shots", not "body blows"Quote:
Originally Posted by spook
rog
that is an excellent descriptor of the achilles heel - the human factor. Well said Rog -
Although some were clearly nervous the techs opened whales tale/ vertigo. Great day but man oh man things could get really ugly up there if a slab fails with all jong heading down haphazardly at th esame time.
As a point of review....
http://david.geraldine.perso.neuf.fr...lanche/ads.jpg
I'm a huge sally when it comes to avy danger, but a moderate rating does not relegate me to riding in bounds (to each their own however). But, moderate does mean be aware (which I know these dudes were, an experienced group no doubt), don't let your guard down, and for me, personally, here in Colorado it means keep it mellow. It sucks to skip meadows all winter, but at the same time as I said above I don't trust our shitpack. Moderate danger level means that human triggered slides are POSSIBLE with small avalanches in specific areas (windslab, etc) and large avalanches in isolated areas (areas with PS/PWL). The tough part is with these persistent slabs is they can give you a false sense of security as they can be fairly strong, until they fail. They however, as CAIC has noted repeatedly over the past few weeks are UNPREDICTABLE and tend to go bigger than would normally be expected. This is a tricky problem to negotiate and most who know way more about the subject than I do say the best way to deal with persistent slabs is to avoid them by keeping it to terrain 30degrees or less.Quote:
Originally Posted by spook
And of course, herein lies the problem. Its hard to keep it mellow all winter. I want to ride steep shit too! The human factor is arguably more unpredictable than the persistent slab problem, especially when you get a good group of guys together who all know/trust one another and feel comfortable with one another. No one wants to be the guy who puts a buzzkill on the day, especially when its super good conditions. It tears me up to know we lost another member of the tribe. Stay safe out there guys.Quote:
Originally Posted by icelanticskier