SLC and JH weather

Ok, so first off, sorry for the delay in getting this posted, it's been a crazy day at the office. Here's the deal; the high pressure over the west is about to break down, so things are looking up a little bit.

First off, for Jackson;
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You'll have to excuse the broad-brush of a forecast here, but it's going to be COLD. Repeat after me. COLD. In other words, bring everything you've got, because you're going to need it. Best chance of snow will be this Saturday night and Sunday, then taper off into Monday morning. It will be windy in that time frame as well.

The rest of the week, Tuesday through Friday, there will be cloudy skies with some breaks of sunshine, and occassional snow showers, but no huge storms are on tap. My knowledge of the local weather affects in JH is pretty minimal so you'll have to rely on locals for that kind of stuff.

From my end of things, it looks cold, with some snow. Total amounts are not clear yet, as recent model runs took snow out of the Saturday forecast, with that storm staying too far north to impact JH. Sunday still looks on track, though.


Ok, now for the Salt Lake Area Mountains;
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We will be in entirely different flow than JH right now; with a return of the pattern we had earlier this winter of storms in a Southwest flow. They are generally warmer and wetter storms, that bring mountain snow and valley rain. This weekend, Sunday looks like a good snow day in the mountains, and so does Monday - but consider this, it's going to be quite windy then as well.

By Tuesday, we are under that SW flow, and there will be snow showers falling as well - though not as heavy as the Sunday/Monday storm, and wetter snow as well. The pattern remains in the SW flow for a few more days, which should bode well for the mountains.

Either way, and at either mountain, there's going to be some fresh snow during the summit, or before and after it, so at least those of you fortunate enough to make it it, won't be skiing JH boilerplate, or Wasatch Corn, here in early February...

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Originally Posted by Red Baron

Ok, so first off, sorry for the delay in getting this posted, it's been a crazy day at the office. Here's the deal; the high pressure over the west is about to break down, so things are looking up a little bit.

First off, for Jackson;
--------------------

You'll have to excuse the broad-brush of a forecast here, but it's going to be COLD. Repeat after me. COLD. In other words, bring everything you've got, because you're going to need it. Best chance of snow will be this Saturday night and Sunday, then taper off into Monday morning. It will be windy in that time frame as well.

The rest of the week, Tuesday through Friday, there will be cloudy skies with some breaks of sunshine, and occassional snow showers, but no huge storms are on tap. My knowledge of the local weather affects in JH is pretty minimal so you'll have to rely on locals for that kind of stuff.

From my end of things, it looks cold, with some snow. Total amounts are not clear yet, as recent model runs took snow out of the Saturday forecast, with that storm staying too far north to impact JH. Sunday still looks on track, though.


Ok, now for the Salt Lake Area Mountains;
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We will be in entirely different flow than JH right now; with a return of the pattern we had earlier this winter of storms in a Southwest flow. They are generally warmer and wetter storms, that bring mountain snow and valley rain. This weekend, Sunday looks like a good snow day in the mountains, and so does Monday - but consider this, it's going to be quite windy then as well.

By Tuesday, we are under that SW flow, and there will be snow showers falling as well - though not as heavy as the Sunday/Monday storm, and wetter snow as well. The pattern remains in the SW flow for a few more days, which should bode well for the mountains.

Either way, and at either mountain, there's going to be some fresh snow during the summit, or before and after it, so at least those of you fortunate enough to make it it, won't be skiing JH boilerplate, or Wasatch Corn, here in early February...

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the 12z GFS is out to lunch with next weeks SW flow...and often very inaccurate this far out...the trend is your friend, stop worshiping the GFS.

So, should I stay in SLC or get my shiz up to Jackson?

http://www.jhavalanche.org/scripts/a...ast&area=teton
or dial 307-733-2664
A great source for the day's forecast and avy hazard
Not so good long term

JHMR is 733-2291 for daily snow report.

see also http://www.mountainweather.com/JACKSON.htm

If its cold, hope for inversions where it is freezing in valley and tropical on top.
Get high and stay high is the rule for inverted days.

[If you drop down through the temp layer, you will feel it real quick. The old face freezer. That's your clue that you should be going higher.]

In the morning, don't be fooled by how cold it is outside your door. It may already be softening up top.

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M O U N T A I N - W E A T H E R - 3 - D A Y - F O R E C A S T
Dry weather along with valley inversions will persist through Friday. A cold front will sweep through the area on Saturday with increasing chances of snow that will continue through Sunday night. Daytime highs at the upper elevations on Thursday and Friday will rise into the 30's and 40's. Overnight lows will drop into the teens.

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Originally Posted by Unregistered

the 12z GFS is out to lunch with next weeks SW flow...and often very inaccurate this far out...the trend is your friend, stop worshiping the GFS.

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Holy Shiz, I smell a WWF Smackdown coming! (Wasatch Weather Forecasters)

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Originally Posted by powderwhore

So, should I stay in SLC or get my shiz up to Jackson?

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spring temps and inversions at both resorts through Friday...two cold fronts should push through over the weekend, the second should have much colder air aloft, although the jury is still out on how cold...areas favored for snow with these types of fronts...cough..cough...the Cottonwoods fair best in this type of scenario and could even see a bit of lake effect if the front pushes far enough south and the cold pool backs a bit further west. It really depends on second front...I've seen the NWS bust 12 hours out in this type of situation. Either way, I'd be surprised to see Jackson Hole receive much more than 4-6 inches between Sat-Mon...best case scenario for the Cottonwoods would be 10-14 thorugh Sunday with some possible residual snow showers Sunday night and Monday.

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Originally Posted by Unregistered

spring temps and inversions at both resorts through Friday...two cold fronts should push through over the weekend, the second should have much colder air aloft, although the jury is still out on how cold...areas favored for snow with these types of fronts...cough..cough...the Cottonwoods fair best in this type of scenario and could even see a bit of lake effect if the front pushes far enough south and the cold pool backs a bit further west. It really depends on second front...I've seen the NWS bust 12 hours out in this type of situation. Either way, I'd be surprised to see Jackson Hole receive much more than 4-6 inches between Sat-Mon...best case scenario for the Cottonwoods would be 10-14 thorugh Sunday with some possible residual snow showers Sunday night and Monday.

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Excuse me Mr. Unregistered, but I think it's a bit rude that you've hijacked this thread and basically dissed Red Baron. I think I can speak for most everyone on this board when I tell you that RB is respected and does a lot for the board.

It's cool if you want to post your own forecast, but why don't you:

A) Come up with a name a little more original than Unregistered.

B) Let us know your credentials(I'm sure you have some, based on your posts).

C) Respect your fellow forecaster and ease up on the attitude.

D) keep bringin us your knowledge.

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Originally Posted by str8line

C) Respect you fellow forecaster and ease up on the attitude.

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Hey dad, want a spell check for your birthday? :)

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Originally Posted by str8line

Holy Shiz, I smell a WWF Smackdown coming! (Wasatch Weather Forecasters)

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Gordy, don't worry, I'm not going to get into it with anyone here; part of the great thing about meteorology is that different people can have different opinions.

Unregistered; we don't even have access to the GFS at my office, I have to go online to check it, so I certainly don't worship it. Oddly enough, my model of choice this winter has been the ECMWF, it's performed best in that medium to long range window. I am not a fan of analog forecasting, so the whole "trend is your friend" thing doesn't mean much to me!

I will say, it's great to have another meteorologist (is that your background?) on here- chime in whenever you've got something to say...

PS: Thanks for the props, str8line, will you teach me how to ski? :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by powderwhore

So, should I stay in SLC or get my shiz up to Jackson?

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Get yourself to Jackson!

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Originally Posted by truth

Hey dad, want a spell check for your birthday? :)

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Truth, don't make me come over there and put you in the naughty chair.

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Originally Posted by str8line

Excuse me Mr. Unregistered, but I think it's a bit rude that you've hijacked this thread and basically dissed Red Baron. I think I can speak for most everyone on this board when I tell you that RB is respected and does a lot for the board.

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Hey Gordy, I'm right behind you man. Let me know if you need any help with this guy. ;)

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Originally Posted by str8line

Truth, don't make me come over there and put you in the naughty chair.

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Coming from the resident kick ass pro I'll go to the naughty chair :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by str8line

Excuse me Mr. Unregistered, but I think it's a bit rude that you've hijacked this thread and basically dissed Red Baron. I think I can speak for most everyone on this board when I tell you that RB is respected and does a lot for the board.

It's cool if you want to post your own forecast, but why don't you:

A) Come up with a name a little more original than Unregistered.

B) Let us know your credentials(I'm sure you have some based on your posts).

C) Respect your fellow forecaster and ease up on the attitude.

D) keep bringin us your knowledge.

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sorry bro...when I logged in for the first time "Unregistered" automatically popped into the box so I assumed it was the name they assigned me and I just threw in a password.

Just because my opinion on the longer range forecast may differ slightly from another doesn't mean I'm dissin the guy...up until recently the GFS has been in line with the EC and not showing increased moisture on a soutwest flow next week...so, I tend to discout one run and stick wth the "trend" until other models come to that consensus or the GFS reverts back to some type of agreement with the other models. In other words, I'm throwing out that run until I see different...no one can forecast accurately 7 days out anyway, right? ;)

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Originally Posted by str8line

Truth, don't make me come over there and put you in the naughty chair.

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You such a tease.

Redbaron and Unregisterd,

Thank you for your insight and your forecasts here. It is always nice to hear it first hand, and in a relative easy to digest format for us ignorami.

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Originally Posted by truth

You such a tease.

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Spellchecker won't catch that.

is this forcast horse shit?

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FLASH...BIG SNOWS COMING TO PORTIONS OF CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BC THEN TO JACKSON HOLE AND PARTS OF UTAH

FLASH.. CANADA
>
MOST IMPORTANT STORM IN 2 WEEKS COULD BRING 10-18" OF SNOW WHISTLER TO FERNIE, RED MOUNTAIN , PANORAMA AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BUGABOOS/KOOTENAYS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES--ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BANFF AT LEAST A FOOT AND 6-12" SILVERSTAR TO LAKE LOUISE.
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SOME AREAS MAY GET 2 FEET
>
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FLASH---PNW/WYOMING/UTAH TO SEE NEEDED SNOW
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>BIG WARM UP NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PLENTY OF 30'S AND 40'S UP TO 9,000 FEET TO GIVE WAY TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOW
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MT BAKER, TIMBERLINE, MT. HOOD TO SEE 5-10"+ BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS FALL AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20'S BETWEEN 2000-3500 FEET
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I LOOK FOR AT LEAST 5-10" AT SNOWBIRD/ALTA/PARK CITY BY MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWS EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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JACKSON/HOLE GRAND TARGHEE-- 10-18" BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 4-8" SHOULD IT VAIL, ASPEN, COPPER, BRECKENRIDGE AND STEAMBOAT BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. MAP BELOW SHOWS PROJECTED SNOWFALL BY MONDAY A.M. FOR JACKSON WITH MORE LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
>
BIG SKY SHOULD HAVE ONE OF THE BETTER SNOWS OF LATE WITH AT LEAST 6-10" BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING

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cmon basom -- you know roemer is always right!

(that said.. he's yet to completely skunk me.. in fact ive always had good luck following his forecasts)

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Originally Posted by basom

is this forcast horse shit?

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Originally Posted by roemer

FLASH!--SKI AREAS PAY ME TO REPORT FORECASTS WITH INFLATED SNOW TOTALS! FLASH!

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Originally Posted by jay peak snow phone

THANKS FOR CALLING JAY PEAK. WE'VE RECIEVED ONE INCH OF FFFFFRRRRRRRRESH POWDER IN THE LAST 48 HOURS, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOOSE SNOW TO KICK AROUND IN THE GLADES!!! ROEMER IS CALLING FOR ELEVENTY BILLION INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON TODAY, SO COME ON UP TO JAY PEAK! MOST SNOW, BEST GLADES!

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no, definitely not horseshit.

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Originally Posted by mildbill.

no, definitely not horseshit.

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that was awesome.

you know i agree with you billy.
just wondring what people who actually know something about weather think of his forecast.

i just take any opportunity to hate on his forecasts, it's part of the whole wretchedness steeze.

What is this world coming to when RELEASE is ready to throw down the gloves on the newby weathermaniac while TRUTH is busy spell checking and talking dirty with Str8? :confused: :confused:

Thanks for the update RB,

I'm not going to make it out this weekend due to the sluggish pace of my recovery.Next weekend,who knows!

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Originally Posted by Unregistered

spring temps and inversions at both resorts through Friday...two cold fronts should push through over the weekend, the second should have much colder air aloft, although the jury is still out on how cold...areas favored for snow with these types of fronts...cough..cough...the Cottonwoods fair best in this type of scenario and could even see a bit of lake effect if the front pushes far enough south and the cold pool backs a bit further west. It really depends on second front...I've seen the NWS bust 12 hours out in this type of situation. Either way, I'd be surprised to see Jackson Hole receive much more than 4-6 inches between Sat-Mon...best case scenario for the Cottonwoods would be 10-14 through Sunday with some possible residual snow showers Sunday night and Monday.

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still on track although it appears I was a bit prematature in timing...that could still change although model consensus becomes more accurate inside 72 hours which isn't far off...still see two pieces of energy affecting the area, the second is colder and stronger, but may not reach the area until Sunday midday with the majority of precip falling Sunday late/Monday...still a chance of some residual showers into Tuesday (Monday in original post)...again, the cottonwoods would benefit most on the northwest flow and there is a possibility of some additional accumulations. Still not seeing any increase in moisture later in the week on a sw flow....not dissing rb, just don't see it on the models.

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Originally Posted by Unregistered

....not dissing rb, just don't see it on the models.

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everything will get sorted out in the cage match to the death anyway.


thanks, and keep the info coming.