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I'm interested to see what the Collective has to say about uncertainty and desire. ( In the context of snow safety, decision-making, etc. Not relative to the ladies! )
How do you react when uncertainty and desire are moderate?
How do you react when uncertainty and desire are high?
How does this affect your decisions?
There are no right or wrong answers, and thanks in advance.
The CookieMonster
I am not sure I have what it takes to walk away when standing at the top of a line with high uncertainty. Two things to fear would be the slide if things go wrong, or the positive reinforcement if it goes right. I would have to turn around before I got there (moderate desire maybe)
This is a good discussion topic.
Most of my travel plans and decisions are based on certainty so I rarely find myself in an uncertain situation. That being said, if I'm ever caught in an uncertain situation, staying alive always trumps desire.
most of us consider ourselves level headed enough to make the same decision under difficult circumstances. the reality is that it's hard to make the best choice everytime, especially when confronted with a risk/reward situation. when sitting at home with all the pertinent information, we most often make the better choice. this might be because the reward part is further removed and the risk is objectively measured. when the reward is directly in your face, it's harder to turn it down.
for me, it's a constant battle to make sound choices. as i get older the risks seem to be more apparent, even when the desire is high. realistically there are still too many variables that affect my desire and my ability to make my perception match the reality. i try to err on the cautious side and hope i make the right decision when it counts.
I like to think I'm experienced enough to go after the lines I desire highly when the uncertainty is low. Otherwise there is nothing I desire enough to hit when I am not certain.
Thanks for the answer guys.
So you see something that you want to ski, but you aren't sure about stability. How does the mixture of uncertainty and desire roll around in your head?
When touring on my home ground I set my objective before I leave the house. This avoids the seeing somethng you want to ski syndrome. If I'm liking what I see than I may change my objective. I try to get rid of uncertainty by getting out on the slope and digging to get comfortable before dropping. When on trips I settle for the best line i am certain of.
Not sure = Don't ski it.Quote:
Originally Posted by CookieMonster
Evan Manners of the Canadian Avalanche Association wrote, "Make your decisions based on information, not impressions."
I have always figured that I can come back to play another day, but I have only one day to die on. I'd rather avoid that latter day.
There may be a mix of uncertainty and desire in your ski touring group that day. In some ways I see your questions as more of group-dynamics questions/answers than an individual's answers.
The day may start out w/ low uncertainty and moderate to high desire (first run, low angle trees); your partner says "that was gay".
You dig a pit (well consolidated snow with powder on top is all you see, in the trees). Tap test just smushes the snow down, nothing pops out or moves.
Then as you're yo-yoing along a ridge/basin you're heading into steeper terrain, the trees are more widely spaced the slope is steeper, still, no cracks, no whomphs, desire is high, uncertainty is (wrongly) based on that pit from two runs ago.
Next run is thrilling, steep, deep (big face-shot smile on your partner's face), and now your group is skiing gladed areas (alot more open areas). Desire is high. Now, why are you skiing open lines now? Maybe because they are slide areas and the trees don't/can't grow there (but no noticeable flagging)?
Then your buddy gets caught in a slide. The classic positive-reinforcement trap: "skiing was great until we hit widowmaker".
In hindsight we should treat each slope with some degree of uncertainty. Now I ask myself: "why are there no trees growing here"? Did we change aspect a little? Is it steeper, more rollovers (convexities)? What weak layer did the Avie report mention again? Is it here, now?
I dig more now in remote areas (hopefully more representative of the slope we're skiing).
Springtime brings less uncertainty for me, since the snowpack is more predictable. Then it's mostly just keeping track of the last week's weather (nightly freezes) and timing (early starts, early finish). Desire is a little lower in the Spring as well since you've been skiing powder all winter and now it's corn. Still nice to get out though.
I read the UT avie report daily. Seems like someone or a few get caught each day once the season gets going. Desire is high and uncertainty? What's uncertainty? I wonder if it even crosses some people's minds? Or powder fever clouds any uncertainty (as myself and many others have witnessed)?
What about potential? What's going to happen to you if the slope does go? Nice smooth runout? Trees/cliffs? A gully (that guy in Silver Fork was buried deep last year w/ quakies complicating the extraction)?
Still living, still learning.
Whenever coming into a new area, or skiing down to the valley from a different ridgeline, ALWAYS be aware of the type of treeless area you might be coming into, and if it is suddenly treeless...why?
Ask yourself: Is this a natural slide zone I'm coming into?
Sometimes, when the pow is just right and everything is flowing, it is hard to bring yourself out of that euphoria of gravity...but you MUST. You must always have a 'third eye' constantly watching your surroundings...perceptible differences in snow structure...past slide evidence...looking for viable escape route should you be entering a high potential area.
Desire is good, as is passion...it is what brings us out there and keeps us there, but you sometimes have to bridle some of that desire and passion in favor of caution...not just for your safety, but for the safety of those in your group that might be following you and may unwarily share in your mistaken route and pay dearly for it.
Keep your eyes open.
--
I am in no hurry and should be able to get another good 25 years out of these hills. So most days I remind myself that there is no rush and if in doubt, don't. I guess that addresses uncertainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by CookieMonster
Desire: if I see something and get the feeling/desire that I want to tell people that I skied it (on the internet) for their entertainment or approval of me, I walk away.
thanks AK rover, sage advice and well noted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alaskan Rover
This post was made by the Bob Klein of Tahoe on another message board. Some excellent examples of desire outweighing certainty.
By Bob Klein
"So, I am the classic "ignorant" guy when it comes to avalanche safety. Been in the mountains a long time and when I was around 12, I started hiking around in the snow by myself. I don't think I gave avalanches any serious consideration until I set off a big slide when I was around 16. Even then, it seemed so obvious to me and my buddy (Mark Anolik, dude who found the Tahoe City halfpipe). It rained on top of a good base of snow, then froze and snowed 3-5 feet. Sick pow, to be sure. We hiked to the usual spot and I casually walked out on top of the cornice to check out the landing. As I peered over the edge, I heard a loud whooomp and the entire cornice fell away below me. As I started to fall, I turned around and dug my Winterstick's sidewall/edge into the top of the mountain and we watched the entire bowl slide away into a massive heap of avachunder. We laughed as we hiked over to a new pow field and made some turns. Never even thought about avalanches after that. That was 1980. I continued to venture to that same spot after a big storm, usually by myself. Never set another slide off in that bowl. When I moved to Colorado in 1985, it was a different story. Scott "Upside" Downey was from New Jersey and was living in Summit County. We went up to Loveland Pass a lot. The first time I went with him, it was a bummer. He was SO fucking paranoid about avalanches, it just wasn't any fun. He freaked out when I would just say "drop in, man". He had a video of him setting off a slide up there, on the East facing side. The video never really scared me the way it scared everyone else. I just thought you need to read the mountain and stay out of obvious slide paths. I still believe that's your best defense, knowing the mountain well enough to read natural slide paths and to feel the snow you're floundering around in. Out here in the Sierras, it's so obvious when we have sketchy conditions. Colorado is a totally different story. When I moved out there, I quickly learned there were more slides in Colorado tan anywhere else in the lower 48 combined. That's pretty frightening. My other Colorado buddy, David Alden, also had an air of paranoia when it came to hiking around Berthoud Pass. He and I went on a few hikes at Berthoud and he was basically the leader of our hikes, talking about the danger and directing the hike away from what he thought were dangerous parts of the mountain. I didn't really say much, but I always thought my friends were so overly paranoid. One thing all the paranoia did while I lived in Colorado- it pretty much kept me in bounds unless I was with someone else. I missed the days of hiking out by myself, but I would be damned if I was going to go out alone in Colorado, because these guys had scared me out of wanting to go into the back country.
Since I moved back to the Sierras in 1990, I resumed hiking alone in the areas I know. I can still read the mountain pretty well. About 5 years ago, I made all of the classic mistakes. I was feeling fat and needed a good sweat. It was snowing hard in November and I thought there would be some good pow at Mt Rose. I told Kimberley I was going for a few runs. I drove up there and it was a whiteout. Ski area closed. I decided to drive up the road a mile or so and go for a hike. I didn't call to tell Kimberley. Mistake #1. I got out of the car and scoped out a ridge to hike. It had snowed about 6 feet, so I was looking for the best wind drift patterns, so I could hike in the least amount of snow. As I dug my board into the snow above me, placing my next step deep below the new snow, I could feel the hard snow far below the surface of the waist deep drifts. My feet were actually slipping on what felt like hard snow so far below the fluffy powder I was floundering in. I knew it felt like slide conditions and told myself I would carefully check the 40 degree pitch when I got to the top. I needed a sweat and this killer hike was doing it. It also looked like a pretty sick run. Mistake #2. When I got to the top, it looked WAY too good to just hike back down. I also knew in the back of my mind that it was dangerous. This was the same general area and same general conditions as when I had set off that slide 25 years prior. But I can turn and avoid any slide, especially because I'm at the top looking down, so I dictate what happens, not the mass of snow below me. Mistake #3. I dropped in, made two or three sweet turns, which carried my line to the left. I made a few more turns and noticed the slabs of snow to my right beginning to buckle. Weird, I must have started that slide from the top, I thought to myself. I stopped in front of a group of small trees to watch the slide go by to my right. I then turned around to my left, just in time to see a bigger slide coming right at me. I knew instantly the snow would pin me to the trees if I didn't scooch to my left, and quickly. I got away from the trees, just in time to basically "sit" on the crest of the slide, as if I were loading a chair. As I sat on top of the crest, I realized I had to keep both feet as high above the snow as possible. I kept thinking if I let my feet down, I get pulled head first under the snow. It was so eery because I never had ridden much with music and I had a new MP3 player and was listening to Pink Floyd or something. I kept thinking I didn't want to suffocate listening to Dark Side Of The Moon. Then it stopped. I stood up and rode away, so angry with myself for getting caught in that situation, I didn't even turn around to see the slide path. When I got to my car, I had to drive down the road and turn around, so I could see the slide. I figured it carried me about 100 yards and the crown on that thing was about 2-3'. Easily enough to kill. Kimberley would have wondered where I was about 4 hours later and probably wouldn't really freak out until it got dark. Then they would search the ski area, come up short and start looking for my car. They would find the car and wonder which direction I hiked. Tracks were probably buried by then and maybe even all evidence of the slide disappeared as well. It may have taken them another day or longer to find my blue body.
Why am I writing this saga?
Because I veer all over the map on this subject. I still have not taken any avalanche safety classes. A few days after I made all the classic mistakes and could have died, I spoke with my childhood buddy Tom Burt. I was red faced and embarrassed as I explained how stupid I was that day. He calmly smiled as Tom does and he said "I don't think you're an idiot at all. You and I have been doing this a long time and you are already ahead of 90% of the people out there because you know how to read the mountain and snow. Don't feel stupid, I go to the same areas as you all the time. I splitboard up there with my daughter in my backpack. No pieps, shovel or probe."
So I continue to hike around there without a buddy, pieps, shovel or probe. And I continue to read the mountain and think about where I am and what the conditions are. When I travel, I do the same, but with a bit more hesitance. I also rely more on local knowledge for terrain, snow and slide paths. But I am not scared. Neither should anyone else be scared.
Last Winter, Mr. Tidbit contacted me about his buddy Craig, who is an avalanche forecaster for the Utah Avalanche Center. They were looking for help securing sponsors, so they can continue their program. I met him for coffee in Salt Lake at Salt Lake Roasters (good coffee!). Craig is an awesome dude. We talked for a couple of hours and I sheepishly told him my history and stories. He also didn't have harsh words for me. He shifted the conversation in another direction. He wanted to discuss the success of their program. Since they adopted their concept of teaching every potential backcountry traveler about the way to safely travel in the BC, they have seen a significant drop in deaths. His whole thing wasn't about scaring anyone. It's way more about how stoked you should be when you get those sick pow stashes, but to get there, you have to know how. I really like this guy and I like the goal of their program.
http://utahavalanchecenter.org/about_us/forecasters (Craig Gordon)
I'll probably still travel alone and try to be safe......I just think you shouldn't get freaked out to the point you won't go on a backcountry adventure. But also learn to read the mountains, at least."
Quote:
Originally Posted by DasBlunt
craig gordon is a good guy. he's got more stoke for snow than most die hards i know. that took him far enough to be good at his job and humble too. he's always trying to learn more and get others thoughts on the snow.
That was a good read, DB. I agree that sitting inside, or anywhere that is removed from the mtn and deep pow runs, it is easy to say how we would definitely shy away from situations that are uncertain, but after a long skin or hike standing at the top of your line it would be totally different. It sounds like the guy in the article got bad summit fever, and even though it snowed 6 feet during the storm (snow doesn't like rapid change), he still went ahead.
I think a good idea is to get a card and laminate it, maybe 4x6, and write down a checklist of the most important factors that contribute to avalanches. It would be a reliable and methodical way to keep track of the main factors for avalanches, and it would take away the possibility of overlooking or forgetting some important factors when in the heat of the moment in the BC. Before you enter a dangerous area just look at the list and then look for those warning signs on the slopes around you.
Paj, what you are talking about sounds like the avaluator card. Pretty good for covering the basic 7 signs, makes sure you check those. Seems to be a lot of discussion on the application though in the ISSW thread. I wouldn't give it up as a checklist, but I don't use it as a green-light/red-light based upon adding up the scores.
Level 2 courses are using a variety of more complex tools to help with the aspiring expert. Most are based on the 7 avalanche threats or common problems, and the questions that flow from figuring out what is your biggest avalanche threat. Go have a look at the second tier of the UAC forecast and you'll see what I mean.
From my research, some type of checklist or rule-based system is crucial for the beginner who is learning what is important, and a great tool for the more experienced traveler who is trying not to be overwhelmed by Desire and trying to better resolve Uncertainty.
I'll work on getting my worksheet on line for your thoughts, team.
I'm not familiar with the avaluator card, but from what you described it sounds similar. Maybe I will make the card I described and post it up, leaving space for others to add. If I have timeQuote:
Originally Posted by Socialist
that sounds like a good start, thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paj
would love to see more info. thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by homemadesalsa
I'll work on them.
Just went through my files and several of the worksheets are proprietary to the guide services/ avy schools I work for- so it's not appropriate to share.
Here's an exercise I present for my 3-week avy forecasting students: I also give them weather history, a marked map, and a few other things.
http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/f...FXexercise.jpg
so: this translates to:
What's the problem?
Where's the problem? (aspect and elevation)
Trend of the problem? danger decreasing/ increasing (this is a tricky question, and involves more intimate knowledge of persistent weak layers and the weather)
The other questions to ask are:
#1- what's my level of confidence in my forecast? How detectable is the problem?
#2- how manageable is the problem?
I like the order of this, helps make it VERY simple in desirable high altitude situations.
I have spent the summer doing daily "book reports" of each chapter in Bruce Tremper's book. The thing about his book is how perfect it is....almost too perfect/technical. I have pages of notes, but your 8 lines above really helps distill that work and knowledge.
Good- hope it helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by DasBlunt
The vast majority of the above work can usually be done at home, while trip planning, at least if you are going into your usual terrain. "What problems am I looking for/ can I expect to find?"
Then when you get out there you look to prove or disprove your hypothesis; try to keep the "wanting" or as Cookie Monster puts it, the Desire, out of the equation (which is what happens when heuristics take over). For me, I find that I am always investigating subtle changes in the slab/ weak layer relationship. That seems to give me what I need to know, then I translate that into "what is the appropriate terrain to ski with this problem?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DasBlunt
Dang. I read it once in September/October now I'm about 3/4 of the way through on my second read. It really is extremely well put together and understandable. It has really shown me how complex avalanches really are and how many factors go into creating safe or unsafe conditions.
amazing book for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paj
This is a fantastic way to learn, and I'm impressed.Quote:
Originally Posted by DasBlunt
You probably don't have limitless time, but it would be very cool if you made a short exam for each chapter.
Post it here and I bet the mods would sticky it.
Really dig your blog, Cookie Monster. Thanks for the link.
Thanks for the kind words tone_capone. I do appreciate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tone capone
I adapt to uncertainty in an exponential manner. If I'm twice as uncertain, I'm four times as conservative. Obviously, this is theoretical, but you get the point.
As for desire, it can be rough when buddies come up to AK expecting the ultimate, and I can't fulfill their wants because it's not the right time. That being said, when it's go time, there is nothing more fun than stepping it up.
P.S. Your blog is spectacular.
Thanks to everyone for the great and informed responses. I'm trying to stay out of the conversation as much as possible because there aren't really any right or wrong answers. I'd like to pose another question:
Do you feel that uncertainty and desire put you at risk for making errors? Can you connect uncertainty and desire, either separately or in conjunction, to errors you've made in the past?
This is interesting. I've never thought about A. ) quantifying conservatism, or B. ) what sort of formula might exist. But I like this "twice as uncertain, four times as conservative" concept very much. It's very clear and easy to understand.Quote:
Originally Posted by stalefish3169
Thanks for the kind words. This is the nicest compliment I've received. The emails and anonymous comments I get aren't always nice!Quote:
Originally Posted by stalefish3169
for me, it's a constant battle to make sound choices. as i get older the risks seem to be more apparent, even when the desire is high. realistically there are still too many variables that affect my desire and my ability to make my perception match the reality. i try to err on the cautious side and hope i make the right decision when it counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Casino
If you have a "desire" to live, you reduce "uncertainty" by making informed decisions. If you are unable to make an informed decision about stability, which can be difficult, select terrain that is non-consequential. End of dilemma.
Backcountry skiing does not always have to be status statement thats judged by slope angle.
ML
I don't think you can reduce uncertainty by making informed decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Link
This is absolutely right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Link
How do you reduce uncertainty without gathering information?
If I think I'm driving down the wrong side of the road, but I'm uncertain, I look for information that will reduce my uncertainty. As I see the headlamps coming straight at me I take that information and error correct.
I have now made an informed decision and have completely reduced my uncertainty.
ML
You cannot reduce uncertainty by making informed decisions. You must consider uncertainty in order to characterise any decision as "informed".Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Link
This is a pretty black and white example, and it's the information reduces your uncertainty, not the decision. The decision is simply the reaction. Your example does describe the decision process accurately, in that it's ongoing, integrative, and continuously adaptive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Link
Anyway, the example you provide is akin to observing Class I data such as cracking or whumpfing or avalanches. In these cases, it is very easy to say that the snow is absolutely unstable.
Unfortunately, because the winter snowpack is conditionally unstable throughout most of the winter, it becomes very difficult to reduce uncertainty to zero at most times and places.
I'm curious about the degree to which people formally consider desire and uncertainty in the backcountry. Specifically how it makes them feel, and how they react to it.
CM, good discussion. So many places to go with it!
CM
The information I gather will certainly influence my decision, no matter how black and white it is. The idea behind gathering information is to reduce or add to my uncertainty which will in turn affect my decision. The more informed I am regarding my surroundings, the better equipped I am to make a decision that does not succumb to the emotions of desire when we're talking powder runs. "We must make order out of the chaos" (W. Munter) is in part dealing with the "uncertainty" aspect of the equation. I accomplish this with a checklist approach in the planning phase. "The Checklist Manifesto" (Atul Gawande) http://www.facebook.com/search.php?q...reload#!/AIAREQuote:
and it's the information reduces your uncertainty, not the decision
So far as "formally" considering desire and uncertainty. I'm not familiar with any formal recording standards tied to either of those elements. What modern brain researchers will tell you, such as Johna Lehrer, author of "How We Decide" whose research in part is based on FMRI scans conducted on humans, is that emotions and logic are present yet play unequal roles in the decision making process; too much logic and you're lost in the inability to move forward, too much emotion and we all know what types of decisions that will lead to.
So that leaves us with considering that when traveling in the BC with friends in search of awesome turns, that we need to "think about how we think" - that emotion/desire and uncertainty go hand and hand in the decision making process and that we'd better consider how they conspire well prior to reaching any decision points in hazardous terrain.
In closing I would say that formally I consider uncertainty and desire by having options in hand prior to going out - a preferred and alternative option in hand and discussed with my touring partners prior to travel in hazardous environments. There is no question about how the desire of awesome powder or a long sought after objective will make me feel - how I react to it is the crux and that reaction needs to be injected with some degree of logic that revolves around the process of an informed decision.
ML
This is brilliant!Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Link
( And informative. )
Cookie Monster I think ML is getting close to your thoughts about trip planning helping to resolve uncertainty.
Great conversation.
Now, harnessing desire... is that a function of age, maturity, having children (I have heard that one many times from students), or what?
Looking at my reading, Deep Survival for example, taking an extra minute to think, let a decision go through the logic phase rather than the reactive phase of emotion, will help us avoid Desire taking over.
This great conversation has been buyoed significantly by your contributions!Quote:
Originally Posted by homemadesalsa
You raise a really good point about taking that extra minute to allow things to settle. As a male, I battle with "reactive tendencies" fairly often ( in many areas of life ), but I try to use the well-being of my family as a reality check. As in "they don't deserve to suffer just because you need to let off some steam".
But things definitely weren't always this way... in fact it's embarrassing for me to even think about how stupid and foolishly self-centred I've been in the past.
So, as you have outlined above, in "hot situations", what do people use for a reality check that helps them insist upon that quiet minute?
I never want my family to sit at a frozen trailhead somewhere and wait for "news". That's my reality check.