First Solid Fall Swell is in the Water

So it is out there. Fetch has been strong and broad over the last 50+ hours. Waiting for sea confirmation, but we can assume about 30 foot seas yesterday aimed at NCal from 300 degrees.

Expect forerunners on Monday @ 17 sec, with the bulk and peak on Tuesday @ 15 secs. right now, I'd guess about 2 feet overhead to double overhead groundswells.

Oh - and the winds are supposed to back off. Might even get a bit of Santa Ana push by Monday.

Wax up those big boards. This is not your weak ass overhead southy. Bring on the Aleutian Juice.

Hell ya! I'm on the north shore of Kauai and here's the mini version cut from the Kauai ocean report:

Outlook to Mon Oct 13: Persistent small surf. Sunday NW swell rising - forecast surf heights will exceed the 15' advisory threshold.

It's all everyone is talking bout here, good thing it's just a short stroll down to Hanalei Bay for me right now. Maybe I'll go paddle out with Andy :FIREdevil

Tell him to get his punk ass back in 'CT form!

Damn, their not talking about this swell in So Cal:confused: I guess the angle is too steep. There has been lots of shoulder/head high surf days over the last 9 days so I am very happy summer is history. Don't know if I am ready for double overhead, give the training another 30 days:redface:

^^^^ some version of this should hit down there Tuesday afternoon.

17 sec period swell hit Bouy 06 some 8 hours ago and is currently showing 10.8@14. I'd expect for us to get something like 5-7@15 from this in the Bay Area and perhaps 4' down south.

It is a start. Our last swell had 10-11 sec periods. Charts look good for the end of the week, with three systems moving through the Gulf. Summer is over.

Soon enough, these will begin dipping south and drop some real snow.

report is calling for 9 foot & 15 seconds with 7 mph offshore tomorrow AM. going to bring my camera.

it didn't make it into socal, the santa ana's are howling right now. hope we get some swell soon...

^^^^Swell is not here yet. Unless you are talking 'bout the 'caine swell from the weekend.

Pt. Reyes CDIP showing 2.1@17 from 300 degrees at 1pm. Bouy 59 just popped over 8 feet. Tomorrow morning for here, afternoon to Wednesday for SoCal.

Gonzo - given the current readings, I doubt we will get 9 feet, but it could still be coming up.

Bouy 06 topped at 14.4'@13sec at 10:50 last night, but then the period popped again, showing 11.2'@15sec. Regardless, it has been averaging about 10@13-16sec over the last twenty hours. Looks like a sustained swell.

sweet - where do you get your bouy info?

http://stormsurf.com/page2/links/ncalrprt.shtml

And links from there. Overall Stormsurf is the best site for us. The Pacific Forecast is great, and the entire site was originally focused on Mavericks - so smack dab between SF and SC.

wicked - thanks. is it just me or are some of those charts for the bouys have mislabeled axis? should be meters or yards instead of feet maybe? i'm probably just reading it wrong.

Sloat this AM...and that's the moon not the sun. Pretty cool. Definitely +head sets coming in (didn't really get them here). We went out on the north side of OB near the cove because it was a bit smaller (we suck). No rides for me + substantial washing mochines + paddle of shame. Good start to the day though. Keep in mind the first group is taken from up on a large bluff (~50 feet).

http://lh6.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTOfOTJ...0/IMG_1317.JPG

http://lh4.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTOfCtn...0/IMG_1316.JPG

http://lh5.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTOejgK...0/IMG_1314.JPG

More north at OB - these look bigger here because they were taken from the beach and the ones above were taken ~50 up on a bluff. The ones above were definitely bigger.

http://lh3.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTO_Hte...0/IMG_1320.JPG

Bud 1 got worked pretty good on this one.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTO_UlM...0/IMG_1323.JPG

Bud 2 on an inside guy. Only decent ride of the AM between 4 of us.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/wrwebb/SPTO_geH...0/IMG_1325.JPG

That first shot with the moon is killer. Slow getting out of bed this morning. Hit Artie Chokes about 7:30. Overhead and soooooo clean. Not huge by any means, and a super easy paddle out this morning between sets.

Huge influx of UCSC students today showing up around 9:30. Tough day, because the lulls made it pretty easy to get out and stay out. Some are cool, but other paddle out and want to stroke right to the top of the pack. :nonono2: It feels good when you see them get worked and humbled. :D Back of the line.

This one dude even tried to paddle into me to get the wave. Clue: if the wave is going right to another guy, stop paddling... this ain't town. Great morning. Looks like about the same tomorrow, with some drop in size.

Gonzo - I think your question is in regard to the Spectral Graph of swell. The numbers are right.


http://stormsurf.com/plot/46042.png

Edit: This graph keeps updating every hour. Pretty cool linky.

Actual pure swells are often smaller than we think. A 4.2@17 from a WNW will show about a 8 face at Artie's. With a 3.4@14 and 2.6@12 component, it will show bigger, say 12 feet. That is about the range of wave size from this morning.

The NOAA bouy only lists the composite wave height average and the period with the most energy. That is why we can have a south swell , 2@17 and windswell combo either show as a 5@8 (wind swell stronger) or 5@17 (ground swell stronger). Wind swell can show stronger, because they get so many more waves during a period.

The Spectral Graph with swell angles can be super helpful when we have 2-4 ground swells in the water. Some may be dying while others are peaking.

Anyway - good morning of surf. Some of this will sneak south, I'm pretty sure.

Bummer is So Cal is knee high this morning, but clean and glassy for those needing to get wet. I will go for a bike ride.:rolleyes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Bummer is So Cal is knee high this morning, but clean and glassy for those needing to get wet. I will go for a bike ride.:rolleyes:

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you'll get yours. good luck with the fire down there.

If you guys hear some faint whimpering from waaaaay ENE, that's just me. :(

^^^^^No need to whimper. This thing dies as quick as it came in. One day wonder really. Much less swell and some wind out on the buoys today.

Are you spending the winter over there? Then there would be some legit whimpering.

When this thing hit the outer buoys at 17sec for twelve hours, with an expected peak in size at 15sec, I though for sure this would be around for a few days. Guess by the time it moved out of the Bearing Strait and into the Gulf, it really only spun for a day or so before dying quickly.

Still, found some fun ones this morning.

yes, I'm over here for the winter. Our surf season is getting started as well, and then there are the Alps for that frozen water sliding when the time comes...... Plus, there are other things going on, for instance, a long weekend in Norway starting tomorrow. I'll miss some swell but hey, I'll be in Norway!

Four days of solid swell on the north shore, the biggest waves I've ever surfed. A little wind swell mucked things up a bit yesterday but still some great rides. Surfed each day at Hanalei Bay inside while the rad dudes macked the DOH++ at the point. Pretty huge swell with wicked strong currents so I played conservatively but it was still well over head high. Finally died off this afternoon with some super clean but small waves, just in time to give the shouders a break and go check some of the rad hiking, snorkling, etc on the garden island.

Sad news as there were 4 drownings in 2 days, all swimmers, no surfers. One on the Na Pali coast and 3 more at Queen's Bath. Watched the lifeguards respond from the Pavillion, it was crazy as they went full throttle through the lineup and launched the lip of a head high wave, both guys were thrown off the wave runner after catching some big air. Body recovery by the time they got there. Props to the guards here, they sure stayed busy the last few days. There was no shortage of warnings and postings, every where you went in town people were talikng about the swell and to be careful. Just like in the mountains people don't respect the power of the planet. No disrespect, but some accidents can be avoided.

i was on kauai in march - so cool. the north shore was pretty dormant when i was there but still were plenty of waves - would love to see it rockin.

were the swimmers just swimming around in that? or did they get sucked out or something?

probably some of this i guess. no need to watch more than the first 10 seconds

Yeah, tourist on rocks by the sea never is a good idea. Several years ago during our first real solid swell of the season (you know like 15-20 foot), a wedding couple was playing on the rocks near Monterey. If I remember right, the bride got swept in. The groom jumped in to save her. The coast guard got the bride, but the groom was never seen again. What a wedding day...

ST - were you surfing by the pier or Pine Trees when you say inside. The current would be super strong in those parts - no where for the water to go.

When the bay got too big, I would check out the Lighthouse (forget the name of the cove just NW of it) or further NW around the island, just before the Na Pali, there is a sick right barrel, that seems to wind down the size.

What a great place to be when the swell is up. Or not. Just beautiful there.

Moss Landing still strong off shore at 11am this morning. Small waves, tho.

We surfed mostly between Pine Trees and the Pavillion. Pine Trees was more often big walls and pounding, massive close outs while the further east you went towards the pier it mellowed out, a lot of soft tops and noobies closer to the pier, at least after the swell peaked. In front of the guard shack I was finding the best waves (for me anyway) You had to paddle pretty aggressively just to keep your position.

Thanks for the beta Ottime, I'll have to check the other spots out, as I think the Bay often closes out at the beach. The next north swell arrives tomorrow morning, and looks a little smaller, good thing I still have a couple more weeks here, this place is rad!

We just hiked part of the Na Pali coast, there is no less than a half dozen signs, including one with a running tally of drowning victims before you reach Hanakapiai beach. Apparently a Polish tourist decided to jump in the ocean anyway and was immediatly swept out to sea. Even during periods of no swell the current is trecherous, nevermind when there is heavy surf advisory :nonono2:. One victim was a 74 yo snorkler and 2 sister in laws who were swept off the rocks at Queen's. Pretty sad, husband tried to jump in to save her, but no luck. That wedding story is a tragic.

Anyway positive thoughts, we are in paradise and loving it! A million Alohas!

Also check out 'Middle of da Bay' - It is a left way outside Pine Trees, in the middle of the bay. Mostly a fast ledge into deep water, but does not really get crowded. Got to get it on a low wind day.

Coco Pai is a left on the west side of the bay, right off of the road. Super juicy wave, but winds can be an issue.

^^^^ make that Wai Cocos.

Charts look mild over the next week. A whole series of systems; 4 or 5. Each a bit stronger than the last. Two over the weekend, never really got that much wind. And with each run of the models, they get weaker...

So, some source of NW swell starting tomorrow, but nothing big. Doubt it will even get as big as the last swell.

Still the longer term models do look nice. One of these will have to blow up soon. And maybe we will even get wet around Halloween.

i'm psyched to get out in some small junk - AMs this week look good for me to get my learn on.

Um, dateline storm looks solid right now. Not sure how big it will be, cause this thing will need to travel far, but we should have some long period swell 5 days or so.

Wind Model

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/...r/whole_as.png

Period Model

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/maps/peranimnep.gif

:p:p:p

edit: for last nights predictions from SS:

According to the models this is to be a most imprssive strom, if not small in size. And confiremd data so far support that prognisis, with 60+ kt winds already acting on the oceans surface. We've run some preliminary numbers and virtual fetch looks like a likley possibiliy providing a higher than usual set wave count in the 17-20 sec period energy bands, and energy to top out in the 23 sec period range. Swell arrial expected over the weekend for California. Hawaii to be plagued by the usual issue, namely that the fetch is to nearly bypass the Islands to the east. Still, just sheer brute force will likeley insure some degree of swell for the early weekend with most size in the 17 sec range, but size limited to the mid-utility class range (upper intermediate class).