Real Estate Crash thread

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by meatdrink9

I didn't buy into that link either. Hence the chicken little lead in. I have however started to build a food and water storage just in case. Not due to that link, but due to the fact that I'm a parent and who knows what is ahead. Better safe than sorry. Probably some of my old Mormon brain washing finding it's way to the surface. Ha.

---

If TSHTF for real we're all dead. What you want to prepare IMO for is short to medium-term disruptions, such as occur all over the rest of the world and we make fun of when we travel to other countries.

Utilities that go out for days or a week, and only work for a couple hours a day when they come on. Supermarkets that can't get any food for some time. The garbage workers and snowplow drivers go on strike and nothing gets picked up or plowed for a month. No water comes out of the tap, and when it does it's not drinkable.

Basically, what's the worst case in which civilization still survives at all? Probably about a month of chaos. After that the lights are never coming back on and you might as well go CHUD. So plan to feed, clothe, and heat your family for that month.

My opinion.

Last year, I didn't read this until the end of the season. This year, I read it now.

http://www.denverpost.com/business/c...et#adPosition2

BUSINESS
Foreclosures in Colo. mountains scaling record heights
By Jason Blevins
The Denver Post



Seven bedridden years after tumbling from a rooftop, Terry Counterman can walk again but could soon lose his Carbondale home in a foreclosure sale.
"I've been sending them paperwork and forms for two years. Someone from the bank calls five, six times a day, telling me to send them more forms. I'm sending them all the money I have, and they say it's not enough," said the 63-year-old former roofing inspector, whose lender plans to sell his home of 30 years next month. "I didn't buy this place as an investment. I bought it as my home."
On Garfield County's tally of foreclosures, Counterman's bank reports he owes about $67,000 on his loan. He's one of an unprecedented number of homeowners in Colorado's high country who are battling foreclosure.
The crush of foreclosure filings in mountain communities continued through 2010, eclipsing not just the records from the previous year but the fallout from the formidable crash of the mid-1980s.
While 2009 foreclosures elevated as struggling owners of second homes jettisoned deflated properties and timeshares, foreclosures in local worker bedroom communities fueled new records in 2010. Towns such as Gypsum, Eagle, Glenwood Springs, Carbondale and Rifle — all of which relished a robust real estate boom in the "roaring aughts" — last year endured soaring foreclosures as the dominant construction industry withered and real estate prices plummeted.
"When the economy and construction slowed down starting in 2008, many of the residents lost jobs, had little or no other income, and could no longer afford their mortgage payments," said Gypsum-area broker Laurie Slaughter, who has seen home values in some parts of Eagle County drop as much as 50 percent in the last year. "Because they also were upside down on their home values, . . . they had no choice but to short sale their home or walk away."
Darker days in 2010
Prior to the 2009 surge in foreclosures, many resort-area communities had not endured any real estate declines since the mid- to late 1980s, when the state's oil-dependent economy collapsed, triggering a real estate crash. But 2010 surpassed those dark days.
• Eagle County, home to Vail and Beaver Creek ski areas, saw 599 foreclosure filings in 1987, a record many thought would never fall. Last year, the county logged 618 foreclosure filings.
• Routt County saw its record 234 filings from 1985 overtaken by 2010's 303 foreclosures.
• Garfield County public trustee Bob Slade fielded 644 foreclosure filings in 2010, an 825 percent increase over the county's 25-year average and 400 more than the county's foreclosures in 1985.
Foreclosures in Pitkin and San Miguel counties also climbed beyond previous high marks set during the economic turmoil of the mid-1980s.
It's not just the number of foreclosure filings that is climbing in the state's high country. As big commercial properties fell into default, public trustees logged foreclosures in amounts previously unseen.
In Pitkin County, for example, banks foreclosed on the sprawling base project at Snowmass Village and Aspen's slopeside Dancing Bear fractional ownership project, totaling more than $570 million.
Routt County in November saw lenders foreclose on a $100 million construction loan at the luxury One Steamboat Place project at the base of the Steamboat ski area, marking the largest of the county's 19 commercial foreclosures. San Miguel County recorded foreclosure filings on two hotels in Telluride's Mountain Village worth $153 million.
"We are certainly seeing our biggest dollar volume in county history as well as the largest number of foreclosures," said Janice Stout, San Miguel County's public trustee.
Summit County recorded 350 foreclosure filings last year, falling short of the filing records of more than 400 set back in the 1980s.
And unlike other resort communities, Summit logged a spike in high-dollar foreclosures last year, with many filings for homes worth more than $1 million.
"We had an increase in our high end," said Summit County public trustee Bill Wallace. "Reality is setting in, I guess."
Counties likely to fill top 10
The Colorado Division of Housing is still compiling its 2010 foreclosure report for the Western Slope. But the division's community relations director, Ryan McMaken, expects to see resort counties — which for decades ranked at the very bottom among state foreclosures — filling the top 10 list for 2010.
"The top 10 used to always be the Front Range. Now it's all mountain counties," he said. "Clearly, the market was really overheated up there in '07 and they had nowhere to go but down. I think we still may be looking for the bottom up there."
Counterman's two years of haggling with lenders is typical of the process, say foreclosure experts. It has taken a toll, he said.
"I swear it's making me sicker," he said.
Public trustees across the Western Slope do not see relief on the horizon, either. Traditional slowdowns in foreclosure filings toward the end of the year, especially over the holidays, did not happen last year.
And already in the first week of the new year, many trustees have been inundated with foreclosure filings. In Summit County, Wallace received 13 foreclosure filings by Jan. 5.
"I don't know if we've reached the bottom of the hole yet," said Routt County trustee Jeanne Whiddon. "But as a politician-economist recently said, we will be at or near the bottom for a long time. The recovery, if in fact we are in one, will probably be a slow, gradual one."

^^^^Hmmmm, where can I view foreclosure properties for Routt County? Might need to take a trip to Steamboat...

Google foreclosures is your friend. I'd wait until May, though.

I just saw the sales report of my zip code from 2010. Home sales were up 15% from 2009, with prices coming up 9%.

I'm glad I bought when I did.

San Francisco inventory is at a 6 year high...

Quote:

---

Up 17.4 percent to 1,255 units and up 31.1 percent on a year-over-year basis (up 61.5 percent versus 2006) for a six-year start of the year high.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by skier666

San Francisco inventory is at a 6 year high...

---

The inventory has gotten sort of low where I'm selling (at least in my price range). That's good for me. Got a lowball offer on Monday, I countered yesterday, got a still too low IMO "final" counter-counter from the buyer late yesterday with a short turn around time for today (less than 24 hours). I was inclined just to reject the offer (just for the short turn around time is nothing else), but the buyers agent was going to talk to them. They are about $5K off from where I need to be (about $25 a month over a 30 year loan). I guess the guy has heard from months, years, that "it's a buyers market". Well, not when you are an out of town buyer moving here and need a quick turn around on a house that isn't a short sale, especially when I'm in a position where I don't have to sell to the first comer. Still waiting on some financials from my agent, so we'll see where this goes. I'm still hoping it works out....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Google foreclosures is your friend. I'd wait until May, though.

---

The problem with google foreclosures is that many of the addresses are obscured, as they're being posted by companies that want to sell you the inside info on the foreclosure.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by supermodel159

I just saw the sales report of my zip code from 2010. Home sales were up 15% from 2009, with prices coming up 9%.

I'm glad I bought when I did.

---

Where's that?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by supermodel159

I just saw the sales report of my zip code from 2010. Home sales were up 15% from 2009, with prices coming up 9%.

I'm glad I bought when I did.

---

When you say prices, do you mean the median? All it takes a couple luxury homes to skew the data.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by supermodel159

I just saw the sales report of my zip code from 2010. Home sales were up 15% from 2009, with prices coming up 9%.

I'm glad I bought when I did.

---

thats pretty good. I didnt get a 9% jump, but house prices seemed to have leveled out in BFE where i live.

A house a block away from me, about the same size, but i have a larger lot and more updates just sold for more than i paid in dec of 2008. Thats a good sign for me as well.

103 Kings Canyon Way, Oakley, CA 94561
Sold on 01/12/2011: $230,000

Beds: 3
Sqft: 1835
Built: 2004
Baths: 2.0
Lot: 4506


They built some new houses behind me as well, but only like half have sold in like 4-5 months. We can probably thank the new houses for the stoppage of decline out here. All the foreclosure inventory got snatched up. Not sure when we'll see the 2nd wave of foreclosures everyone says is coming. But so far it seems i timed it pretty good as for as the bottom from what i can tell.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by skier666

When you say prices, do you mean the median? All it takes a couple luxury homes to skew the data.

---

pretty much every home in greater santa barb is a luxury home

Hey I always look on the bright side. If TSHTF... I will be sporting my best bikini bod evar for a while. And no stockpiling anything but booze for me! (well, okay, maybe mixers too)
:fm:
Sprite

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by supermodel159

I just saw the sales report of my zip code from 2010. Home sales were up 15% from 2009, with prices coming up 9%.

I'm glad I bought when I did.

---

So, again, where is this wonderful place? And, what's your source?

I agree that this real estate crisis is quite similar to the 1989-90 deal. That one was more commercial real estate because of Reagan's tax incentives but it's the same all over again.

Analysts who have been right:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sou...-20?link=kiosk

“We have seen all this before. It was back in the 1980s. After years of loose and questionable lending practices, regulators were forced to liquidate hundreds of savings and loans and dump their foreclosed real estate onto an already depressed real estate market….The bad news is that today’s crash has been damaging, to both real estate prices and the national economy. The good news is that we have the tools to determine when the bad news will be over.”

Sound Advice thinks the key tool is the foreclosure rate, which declined in November (the latest data available). It writes:

“The majority of November’s decline could be explained by seasonal factors and by the [banks’ self-imposed] foreclosure freeze. Since it would seem reasonable to expect December to be seasonally lower as well, the real test will come in January. Predictions are that the first quarter of next year will see high foreclosure rates. If so, a significant downtrend will not have been kicked off by the recent 2-month decline. Otherwise, we are now seeing the beginning of the end of the crisis.”

But apartment rentals, Sound Advice notes, are already surging. It comments:

“After a bottom, there usually follows a period when occupancy rates firm, rents stabilize but new construction is scant. We’re at that point now.”

Two things. We threw a lot of those S&L thieves into jail for their crimes. Today, they get a new Ferrari. And, real estate recovered so quickly in the eighties because the Boomers were flooding into the market in their prime earning years. Now, they have to sell. Or, their estates will.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Two things. We threw a lot of those S&L thieves into jail for their crimes. Today, they get a new Ferrari. And, real estate recovered so quickly in the eighties because the Boomers were flooding into the market in their prime earning years. Now, they have to sell. Or, their estates will.

---

Recovered from the 1978 real estate recession?

Last real estate recession was 1989-1995.

Some boomers need to sell but it's not as if they will all become renters and household formation is still growing. I'm not wildly bullish on home prices but the mortgage vs. rent gap is getting quite low.

You're probably too young to remember a time when the prime rate was about 20%. That was also a time when we had a real nasty recession. Maybe that proves my point, that the flood of Boomers was able to support the market even under those conditions. Where are the kids today with FHA 3.5 down 4.5% to 600 credit scores?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

So, again, where is this wonderful place? And, what's your source?

---

93108

My source was a local broker who writes editorials/blogs about the current climate of real estate in 93108.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by supermodel159

93108

My source was a local broker who writes editorials/blogs about the current climate of real estate in 93108.

---

You know, real estate agents can be very optimistic people. And they've been known to bend the truth at times.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You know, real estate agents can be very optimistic people. And they've been known to bend the truth at times.

---

Ground breaking information regarding sales.
Thanks bud!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You know, real estate agents can be very optimistic people. And they've been known to bend the truth at times.

---

This seems to be 93108. Do the numbers agree with what that broker is saying?

http://www.royprinz.com/Nav.aspx/Pag...geID%3d1189493

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eldo

This seems to be 93108. Do the numbers agree with what that broker is saying?

http://www.royprinz.com/Nav.aspx/Pag...geID%3d1189493

---

Yep, the Montecito numbers are the same.

Then prices aren't up anywhere near nine per cent, as that broker claimed. Or am I doing the math wrong?

But if you like the house, that's really all that matters. :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Recovered from the 1978 real estate recession?

Last real estate recession was 1989-1995.

Some boomers need to sell but it's not as if they will all become renters and household formation is still growing. I'm not wildly bullish on home prices but the mortgage vs. rent gap is getting quite low.

---

But it is different this time.
While i agree with 4matcs info on the last RE Recession being from 1989-1995, things are just so different this time around. Sadly my booze adeled brain doesn't retain facts like it once did, but if I wanted to, I could write you a fucking thesis paper on all of the differences and why in my opinion we are way more fucked this time and no where close to being out of the woods. I too live in SoCal and know that the first half of 2010 actually reported a rebound in prices. Do I think this is a permanent trend, hell no. When the rest of the country is still going down, employment is going no where but worse, (my wifes school district announced major lay offs yesterday for 2011) as cities, counties and states are struggling to balance budgets (look for lay offs) employment is no where close to supporting a rebound at this point and like Japan, I am certain our RE market has years of slight up ticks followed by big dips ahead. If you have a boat load of equity or a paid off property, enjoy the ride. If thinking of buying, I would really wait. My kids are living at home to save half of their checks so they can look at buying in a few years. I hope we are close to a bottom by then so I can boot them the fuck out:wink: