Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Harry

I love it when TGR Conservatives demand Big Government step in.

How about Oil & Gas companies step up and announce they will not buy from Russia ? Plenty of other companies have made that pledge.



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If they want to meet their production goals in this boom, that means putting a lot of workover and production rigs over a lot of completed holes in the Gulf of Mexico. It means pulling fracs all over Wyoming and Oklahoma and Alberta and Alaska. Oil has already been on the up, and a lot of Mississippi and Louisiana is back to work on rigs that are already committed to whatever they were committed to in various parts of the world...And when you consider that onshore and especially offshore oil rigs are a skills/materials/capital-intensive proposition...capacity and lead time.

Anyway, Shell BP Total et al already constitute over half of Europe's oil buying from the Russian Empire. Shell owns Sakhalin 2, this even after Lord Pootin dispossessed Shell of Sak1, gave it back, then took it again...So loosing the brains of the many JVs etc is going to hurt Russian oil production until they pull out of Ukraine.


https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...and-gas-sector

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Originally Posted by dunfree

This kinda contrarian take seems really popular and seems to really, really, really not understand just how much the oligarchs have outside of Russia, and how much they value their life outside of putins shithole.

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But doesn't that assume that the oligarchs in question actually have a say in Putin policy? They're not monolithic. I recall Meathelmet mentioning animosity between the Siloviki (who are much more insular, with more of their holdings in-country like Shoigu's palatial dacha), and the economic Oligarki we see prancing around Monaco and Verbier. Isn't the invasion being driven by the former, with the latter wringing their hands and escaping to the Maldives on their superyachts?

It would certainly be interesting to know more about the dynamics Putin's "inner circle", but I assume it's even more opaque than politburo of the past.

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Originally Posted by highangle

Pretty sure that if a bank can use AI to detect money laundering, and an insurance company can use AI to detect and quantify risk...the NSA CIA FBI can use AI to detect and track a gangster kleptocracy's foreign imperial credits...Poot and his merry band of kid killers probably half-assed the act of stashing their loot anyway. Same as they do with vehicle maintenance.

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As far as half-assed, Panama papers seem to indicate otherwise, with a bewildering array of shell companies administered by a cadre of well paid lawyers and accountants. And if a bank like Credit Suisse is doing well, why would they want to dig down that deep and kill the golden goose if there's plausible deniability, at least superficially?

Ukrainians apparently robocalling Russia

https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/st...zNXdWUnVnl1V2g

I can envision Putin wanting to reclaim control of resources from the oligarchy. Like Xi clamping down in China.

This sums up what we have seen so far, but we can only hope the bear doesn’t simply incinerate the lego now.

Attachment 408165

Ever step on a Lego? Fuckin hurts.

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Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate

But doesn't that assume that the oligarchs in question actually have a say in Putin policy? I recall Meathelmet mentioning animosity between the Siloviki (who are much more insular, with more of their holdings in-country like Shoigu's palatial dacha), and the Oligarki we see prancing around Monaco and Verbier. Isn't the invasion being driven by the former, with the latter wringing their hands and escaping to the Maldives on their superyachts?

It would certainly be interesting to know more about the dynamics Putin's "inner circle", but I assume it's even more opaque than politburo of the past.

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Shoigu’s daughter reportedly lives in Dubai, I would suspect there’s a fair bit of his wealth there too. Igor sechin, Putin ally and head of rosneft, might be in Moscow much of the time but his second wife, the trophy one, spends plenty of time in the Mediterranean on the yacht if you believe instagram. abramovic putting £1.5 billion into Chelsea? These are huge amounts, you don’t do that if it doesn’t matter to you.

What the exact decision making process is in the kremlin? Ooof. That’s tough.

Just arguing that for the oligarchs especially, but “ordinary” Russians too the ability to gtfo for a vacation - in money and freedom —was popular. Move to a middle of Siberia shithole for money becomes more tolerable if there’s a direct flight to multiple places warm and tropical. 1 million + Russian tourists to Thailand a year precovid. Before Covid there were direct Moscow-Bali flights, this mattered to them.

Iran has 80 million barrels of oil sitting on tankers? Pick your poison..

No that a million Ukrainians have fled, this is now one of the largest migrations in history. Will it be long-term or a temporary refugee crisis?

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Originally Posted by Hood26

No that a million Ukrainians have fled, this is now one of the largest migrations in history. Will it be long-term or a temporary refugee crisis?

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It's a win for Ukraine. 80% of the diaspora are their women/children. Their plan works and it's working.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Iran has 80 million barrels of oil sitting on tankers? Pick your poison..

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Iran could step up right now and win back their place in the world. They won't. Allahu ackbar!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2rBUvWKSZw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzBxFH_hEwA

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has urged Iran to move quickly to resolve any remaining issues and reach an agreement to revive a 2015 deal on its nuclear program.

"What we would like to see is that an agreement is reached in Vienna," Scholz told reporters on March 2 after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Jerusalem. "Now is the time to make a decision. This must not be postponed any longer and cannot be postponed any longer."

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Originally Posted by ötzi

Ever step on a Lego? Fuckin hurts.

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This. It will temporarily cripple an adult.

I can see Iran not wanting a quick deal to support their ally Russia.

Speaking of "allies" America's Middle Eastern are disappointing so far...

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Speaking of "allies" America's Middle Eastern are disappointing so far...

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OPEC+ members, like Russia? That’s the alliance that matters

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Originally Posted by riser4

This. It will temporarily cripple an adult.

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True, but I also have thrown the offending lego out in the trash.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

OPEC+ members, like Russia? That’s the alliance that matters

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Israel and to some extent Turkey too. OPEC+ alliance holds sway today but pressure will mount for ostensibly neutral Gulf states to pick a side.

When a country disintegrates, the best and brightest are often the first out. Syria is fucked for a very long time. So is Lebanon.

In Ukraine, I don't think this is so. It depends on how the conflict evolves or resolves. If it turns into an Afghanistan level insurgency for 10 years, yea the permanent refugee situation will be hard.

EU granted Ukrainian refugees 3 year work status right now. They should grant that to Russian soldiers who desert.

Putin is still telling the Big Lie that the reason Ukrainian civilians have died from Russian bombardment is because the “neo-Nazis” he says have overrun the country are using them as a shield. He’s sticking to his line, despite military setbacks.

We know Putin is brutal. We also know Putin is incredibly racist. Maybe Putin's racism works in Ukraine's favor compelling him to eventually show restraint in Ukraine as opposed to his actions against Afghanistan so long ago and in Syria more recently.

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

We know Putin is brutal. We also know Putin is incredibly racist. Maybe Putin's racism works in Ukraine's favor compelling him to show restraint in Ukrain as opposed to his actions against Afghanistan so long ago and in Syria more recently.

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There’s one important difference- Ukraine has more education and other links to other nations. India is flying Indian refugees from Ukraine out from Poland. PRC citizens got shelled and died. I’m not sure how that’ll play out or wise, but it’s not a nowhere


And the best and brightest want to gtfo of Russia

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Originally Posted by Harry

I love it when TGR Conservatives demand Big Government step in.

How about Oil & Gas companies step up and announce they will not buy from Russia ? Plenty of other companies have made that pledge.



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Am I wrong? You think it's ok for the US to be purchasing any Russian products right now? And just because I lean "conservative" on the whole doesn't mean I'm fucking Ayn Rand. It's called nuance. FFS man.

And yeah, the big O&G players have already made announcements saying they're not dealing with Russia. Seen it from Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, and countless more.

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Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Am I wrong? You think it's ok for the US to be purchasing any Russian products right now? And just because I lean "conservative" on the whole doesn't mean I'm fucking Ayn Rand. It's called nuance. FFS man.

And yeah, the big O&G players have already made announcements saying they're not dealing with Russia. Seen it from Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, and countless more.

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Y’all love cheap ammo and guns from putins war machine

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Originally Posted by dunfree

There’s one important difference- Ukraine has more education and other links to other nations. India is flying Indian refugees from Ukraine out from Poland. PRC citizens got shelled and died. I’m not sure how that’ll play out or wise, but it’s not a nowhere


And the best and brightest want to gtfo of Russia

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Yeah, I saw where a bunch of overprivileged Indian students at Kyiv who didn't believe the Russians had invaded decided to hold a sit-in at the train station to protest their enforced bugout, and got manhandled on to the train by the TA.

Of course they were on their 5G iPhones expressing their umbrage and outrage to their parents, who of course know MPs, and thus a very grave, wery concerted effort was immediately launched to rescue India's expatriot sons and daughters. This of course included all of India's airlines, who diverted flights to aid their rescue!


Meanwhile in Kyiv, the Russkies are shelling Taras Shevchenko National University and Kyiv International University and Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic and National University of Life and Environmental Sciences and the National Aviation University...