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DJIA still above the low from two weeks ago.
Congress could end this at any time. With the country driving itself off a cliff, this is proof no secret hands are on the wheel. Not Wall Street, not the corporations, not the military-industrial complex. Just the ordinary median safe-district high-propensity *primary* voter. There is no hidden driver, no shadowy force. Only the steady hands of a few lunatics, gripping tight, steering exactly where they want to go
All the call selling ETF’s and option related strategies are going to get challenged. An outsized move will pressure the hedge collars and throw in panic selling from all the option newbies.
JEPI is at major support area.
Just think about all the individual stock option selling products on TSLA and NVDA. Those could just unravel.
Jepi Is not to be messed with right now. It’s a synthetic short put, market neutral product, designed to collect positive theta.
It will lose 1-1 soon, and if you but it at the bottom, will make some nice cash on a vol squeeze, bounce, but your upside will be capped.
A very large firm here in St. Louis, managed the general dynamics fund when Nelly up in 2009 doing this. I still don’t think they knew what they were doing, but hey, they all got rich anyway. Just not the retirees.
Why no tariffs or penalties on outsourced labor? IBM might as well be Infosys with a US domicile
Companies like Wayfair and O could be put out of business.
The entire thetagang universe must be getting rocked. All the put sellers getting pennies now getting rocked by the steamrollerQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Kick em when they’re down. This ain’t charity. Somebody wins-Somebody loses.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau;[emoji[emoji6[emoji640
NVDA holding the top of its gap. If that breaks hang on
you saw big tech at the welcome partyQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
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Is there a better/easier way to trash the entire government and economy with some modicum of plausible deniability?Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Like it almost has to be 4D chess (though not Trump’s)
It’s so fucking stupid there’s no way the destruction isn’t intentional.
The street is still long vol, a few more pushes down, and they will be out of bullets, and go from buying stock to hedge, to selling.
They are making big dough right now, like the “talon” who is long position limit in the vix.
When they start hammering puts, then I’ll think about buying.
Information I hope someone used 10 pages ago, that could have gotten me into trouble.
Says the hall monitor. Fuck you.Quote:
All posted. If it doesn’t involve buying or selling pls take it to poly ass.
https://media.tenor.com/elTzU_6Qef8A...ic-cartman.gif
Teetering on the edge. Countervailing tariffs should be announced shortly. That should start the real bloodbathQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
This is all ok. It is not like Americans like Temu or anything.
<p>
This has never made sense to me. US corporations can export all skilled labor overseas to China and India in undercut the American worker, but if the American worker wants to import a better product from overseas they cant. See chickentax trucks and BYD cars.</p>Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Does this count as a black swan?
Admittedly I am pondering if my retail investor strategy of being an index investor with 20 years to retirement is still a good strategy. That would be betting long term against the US economy though....
On the other hand, didn't it take the Nikkei like 35 years to recover from Japans lost decades?
This is the guy whose ideas are being implemented (apart from the messaging and maybe the extortion and carve-outs for most favored dictators):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oren_Cass
Note that the formula of 10% minimum across the board or the US trade deficit divided by our imports from any given country or territory matches up well with his 10%, rising by 5% annually until trade deficits disappear.
Jon Stewart's interview with him:
https://youtu.be/vgEQeLR-M0g?si=Q9PSXSZBUqkyJeFk
Two conclusions: comedy central is more reliable than cono and all leading experts, and these are not retaliatory tariffs, so they may well stick around a while.
Saw that, I think it hard to argue with Oren.
Took the SPY 15 years to recover from dotcomQuote:
Originally Posted by civilcoconut
The Trump admin valued US service contracts at 0 for calculating trade deficits. Guess we don't care about those jobs either.
You're not helping your credibility. Anyone who can suck up that hard to Scott Bessent at this point in the koolaid cycle is himself quite drunk. But he sane-washes it well. The obvious conclusion is that he did, in fact, know what to expect, because Scott has been listening to him (that's how he knows Scott is super smart, recent interviews notwithstanding).Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
"The Trump admin valued US service contracts at 0 for calculating trade deficits. Guess we don't care about those jobs either."It will be interesting if EU decides to target that sector for tariffs against US, would be smart on their end.
Does Cono seriously think this will be over soon because other countries will -cancel their tariffs-?
Dumb as fucking rock. Most of these countries barely have any tariffs to cancel!
https://bsky.app/profile/justinwolfe.../3llud3ur64j2n
Trump is demanding all countries eliminate their trade deficit in goods, not eliminate their tariffs. It is a fucking impossible ask!