Update: not all is lost.
Austria can still get decent snow. West of the arlberg is debateable.
East of Salzburg could actually be interesting.
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Update: not all is lost.
Austria can still get decent snow. West of the arlberg is debateable.
East of Salzburg could actually be interesting.
And???…Quote:
Originally Posted by subtle plague
Last ecmwf keeps some hope also for the central alps for next Wednesday… or am I wrong?
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It is changing every single forecast. Verbier is fluctuating between 30cm+ and nothing at the moment. Given that I am hosting a quasi corporate retreat up there, I would bank on powder mornings Thursday and Friday.
Coming into Davos mid-next week.
I'm happy to drink beers on sunny decks, but I hope for your guyses ski season, glacier health, and water availability that a big storm materializes!
Safe bet is eastern Austria. range is decent to mega dump.
Davos/arlberg ( maybe even central swiss) are still 50:50 for decent snow or dusting.
Verbier is pretty certain in the dusting to nothing range.
First wave until Tuesday is eastern Austria only. 30-50cm. West 0-25cm
Wed-sat is still uncertain.
Range:
50-100+ in the east.
20-80 arlberg etc.
0-40cm West.
Ensembles
And the Models usually underestimate the east because of lower Model Topography.
So while 50mm titlis usually mean 50-70cm snow, the east gets 1,5-2m
Out of 100mm
Attachment 444780Attachment 444781Attachment 444782
This sucks… for us at least
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Opensnow is forecasting 30 inches for Disentis. Do you not think that will happen?Quote:
Originally Posted by vendul
50:50.Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
It's in the decent to dust category. It's just a bit east of the titlis pic I posted.
The range is still big.
Main runs ( 1 of 30 in the ensemble which go into direct Model output like opensnow or bergfex) are decent right now. [emoji3]
Things are starting to look better for eastern/ cebtralSwitzerland. The Main Runs all agrees for some decent precip.
The first wave on Tuesday doesn't really exist anymore except in eastern Austria. Let's hope that doesn't happen to the Main wave as well.
Eastern Austria ist on track for something impressive.
Still huge range between 10cm and 1.2m in Switzerland though.
Valais and france are pretty much fucked.
East ist on track for 70cm to 2m+
If I have jinxed it, pm rontele.
Why is the forecast so variable atm? Isn't January more easy to predict?
It's always very complicated more than 5 days out. Especially with precip.Quote:
Originally Posted by twat
This time it's because of the high pressure System. The flow is always north/ northwest in the Models, but depending on the Position it's dry or wet . That's what happened Tuesday. The high moved further east...ni snow in the west.
Attachment 444908
Fluela is ugly, but at least there’s sunshine.
@subtle plague, how far east we talking in Österreich? East innsbruck or as far as Salzburg east? I'll be in the zillertal hoping for the clouds to spunk all over me
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Youllbe in the "likely decent" category.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossymcg
Which goes to central Switzerland ATM but may go further east.
cool about time I had some luck in my life.Quote:
Originally Posted by subtle plague
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50cm for gerlos. According to bergfex.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossymcg
That looks nice....
https://www.bergfex.at/gerlos/wetter/berg/
yep hochfügen/kaltenbach usually gets a bit more if history is to repeat itself, but I'll take 50Quote:
Originally Posted by twat
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East Shifts and West Shifts have technically the same possibility? Or isn’t it so?Quote:
Originally Posted by subtle plague
Asking for a friend [emoji28]
Thanks
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Pattern is more east prone thus time.Quote:
Originally Posted by vendul
Eastern Switzerland is still hanging in there. But barely. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out arlberg and east. Will see more clearly on Tuesday.
Saturday, central Switzerland.
Finally made it above the fog at 2200m.
Nice views, but quite cold!
Attachment 445119Attachment 445120
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5years of absence .. not bad for a comeback postQuote:
Originally Posted by IridePow
Times flies.... not sure why it took that long for another post.
Keeping busy with work, family and dog.
Just to demonstrate how fast time goes by:
Our puppy (australian shepherd) in January 2022 in front of the Hausstock (Glarnerland):
Attachment 445170
One year later on his first big skitour in January 2023:
Attachment 445171
Praying for more snow.
Up high good turns were in order this past weekend, but below 1500m the base is still very thin.
As i feared: Swiss is getting downgraded. 10-50cm range until sat.
Arlberg has a 10-100cm range. East ist still in the 70-150 range.
And: nice pics. No snow. Hausstock looks terrible. In ordinary winters it always looks inviting.