Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

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04-14-2015, 09:54 AM
ImSearchingforPowder

Quote:

Originally Posted by linvillegorge

NOAA seems very doggish on this storm right now.

Wednesday
A slight chance of snow showers before noon, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West wind 8 to 11 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a north wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

CAIC is quite a bit more optimistic, but not willing to really pin down amounts. Looks like this storm is gonna be boom or bust. Surely we're due a boom. Pretty much bust after bust after bust for the two months.

If you read their forecast discussion they are painting a much different picture. I don't think they really pay attention to the point forecasts until inside 12 hours. In the discussion they are going by the EURO and NAM, saying that the gfs is not to be trusted basically because the storm is now on land.
04-14-2015, 11:02 AM
garuda

Quote:

Originally Posted by skiracer88_00

I'm confused, does NOAA exclusively use the GFS to develop their forecasts?

start reading the forecast discussion.
04-14-2015, 11:23 AM
capulin overdrive

Last night NOAA had Monarch Pass at 70% for whatever the best night was, and 60% for Loveland. No total guesses then.

Joel mentioned the San De Cristo's, and about the storm stalling in New Mex.

Who knows, they're calling for up to 3 inches of rain in western Kansas, so may be a poach Red Rocks storm, or go ski Mt Sunflower?
04-14-2015, 04:31 PM
NoPostholio

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lindahl

Yeah, have at it. Done that more than a few times.

Thanks for info -
04-14-2015, 11:14 PM
ImSearchingforPowder

1 Attachment(s)

Attachment 166213

Gfs finally came around
04-15-2015, 08:52 AM
sillyrabbit

Looking to tour Saturday anyone interested?
04-15-2015, 09:03 AM
hatchgreenchile

Quote:

Originally Posted by sillyrabbit

Looking to tour Saturday anyone interested?

Silly, we may be at BP or RMNP depending on conditions, shoot me a PM
04-15-2015, 12:07 PM
ImSearchingforPowder

These models are just blowing up CO
04-15-2015, 12:10 PM
Muggydude

Looks like Friday might be a real fun day
04-15-2015, 12:38 PM
linvillegorge

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImSearchingforPowder

These models are just blowing up CO

Got any links to these models?

I really need to up my weather nerd game.
04-15-2015, 12:41 PM
ImSearchingforPowder

Quote:

Originally Posted by linvillegorge

Got any links to these models?

I really need to up my weather nerd game.

Nam http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlay...?STATIONID=FTG

Gfs http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-ove...?STATIONID=FTG
04-15-2015, 12:41 PM
adrenalated

Easiest access to model forecasts I'm aware of is CAIC.
http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecas...del-forecasts/
There's probably others.
04-15-2015, 08:49 PM
The SnowShow

Friday is looking really good - question is: will I70 even be open east of the tunnel.
04-16-2015, 12:05 AM
ImSearchingforPowder

1 Attachment(s)

Attachment 166243

They latest 12am WRF just blew up this storm even more than the version at 6 pm. 6pm is on the left
04-16-2015, 05:47 AM
sillyrabbit

I'm free Friday to tour as well if anyone wants to meet up?
04-16-2015, 06:32 AM
simple

There will be no touring. Only attacking and shredding this storm. Touring is too slow. braaap!
04-16-2015, 06:50 AM
fastfred

another 1/2 inch over nite

starting to snow, there is a equal chance the storm will be a bust or it'll be 20-30 inches

after 2 or 3 days of wind it's calm and the humidity is going up

i'd leave the front range soon, cause there is an equal chance I70 will be a disaster later today and friday or maybe everyone will stay home cause most people gave up on winter two months ago
04-16-2015, 08:40 AM
adrenalated

Bust for sure. Looks like a great Saturday to stay home and clean out your garages, folks.
04-16-2015, 09:19 AM
hatchgreenchile

Still snowing back in the Cottonwoods, lots of juice with this storm!
04-16-2015, 09:30 AM
fastfred

Quote:

Originally Posted by adrenalated

Bust for sure. Looks like a great Saturday to stay home and clean out your garages, folks.

good idea

snowing alittle sun snowing again can't make up its mind
04-16-2015, 09:32 AM
cmsummit

Quote:

Originally Posted by fastfred

good idea

snowing alittle sun snowing again can't make up its mind

I'm gonna bike some laps around the lake this weekend.
04-16-2015, 09:56 AM
Soups

I heard the temps rose and it's turning to rain. Bust for sure tomorrow.
04-16-2015, 10:21 AM
The SnowShow

I70 already closed twice between Lookout Mtn & Floyd Hill. What's the over/under for more between now and Sat? 5?
04-16-2015, 10:26 AM
linvillegorge

Quote:

Originally Posted by The SnowShow

I70 already closed twice between Lookout Mtn & Floyd Hill. What's the over/under for more between now and Sat? 5?

It was coming down hard and heavy here in Evergreen from about 7am to 10am and then just stopped. Looks like the sun is trying to come out now.
04-16-2015, 10:27 AM
linvillegorge

Quote:

Originally Posted by The SnowShow

I70 already closed twice between Lookout Mtn & Floyd Hill. What's the over/under for more between now and Sat? 5?

If it's already shutdown twice before this thing really even gets cranking, I'll definitely take the over. The only thing that might skew the odds is an extended shutdown.

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