Is the stock market going to tank?

Hey, I adapted. Don't fight the Fed.

I'll give you that Benny. Good shot at the SP500 record today.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Don Hays of respected institutional service Hays Advisory is a long-time superbull who has gotten over his periodic short-term hesitations, last seen earlier in the summer. See June 18 column
On the face of it, Hays is now as bullish as ever. Earliest this week, his e-service proclaimed "Welcome to the Last Half of this Bull Market." He noted, "The very spirited entrance of this bull market into the last half of its move, that will produce accelerating gains in these next 18-20 months."
For the first time that I recall, however, Hays has begun to suggest that the bull won't be around forever. It appears as throwaway lines "Nobody today is looking at March or April 2009, when our guesstimate is that this bullish stock market might be ready for a meaningful correction (i.e. cyclical bear market.)"
Meanwhile, an issue under the byline of Keith, Hays' son, succinctly summarizes the Hays Grand Strategy. Inflation, in Hays' view, is currently held down by five factors:

* "1. Demographics: An aging world implies lower interest rates and deflationary risks rather than inflation. You have to look no further than Japan as evidence.
* 2. Fed Obsessed with Inflation: Lived through previous inflation era and is obsessed with it.
* 3. Technology and the Internet: Internet alone has drastically reduced the cost of information, lowering the cost and improving the productivity of business decisions (Example: airline ticket low price search vs. 10 years ago).
* 4. Fiscal Policy Competition: U.S. pricing must compete with pricing of every free trade country & vice versa, keeping prices low.
* 5. Free Trade and Globalization (Glut of Labor): Labor makes up 65-70% of the final cost of goods and services. With a global glut of labor, workers lose their pricing power, putting another lid on inflation."

Or, in another Hays summary:
"The Technology Revolution
produces
A Massive New Flat World
which ignites
A Spread of Democracy
which unleashes
A Huge Sponge of New Consumption,
which launches
The Greatest Economic Boom in the History of the World
which results in
Huge Stock Market Potential"
I don't immediately see why this happy situation would end as early as 2009.
But, meanwhile, here's Hays' recommended asset allocation:

* Long-term growth: 100% in stocks.
* Moderate growth: 85% in stocks, 15% in bonds.
* Conservative growth: 65% in stocks, 35% in bonds
End of Story

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...774BB17054A%7D

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4matic the perma-bull! Everythings going UP UP UP!

there's ways to make money anytime. if idiots can flip homes again, it's the sign of a bubble. idiotic market gibberish = bubble. that shit doesn't change ya stupid fuck who's older than me.

They aren't flipping. They're going to be landlords. Kind of.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...s-capital.html

The gov is taking action up here in syrup sucker land eh?

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

4matic the perma-bull!

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Current mix: 25% equity, 50% income, 25% cash. Will continue to trim equity on rallies. I've made a serious bundle on that short sale flip you hated too.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

They aren't flipping. They're going to be landlords. Kind of.

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Probably gonna sell both the rentals and ring it up. Can't close on one till July for taxes.

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...s-capital.html

The gov is taking action up here in syrup sucker land eh?

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With a 1% increase in reserve requirements in 2016???? Not really, but then the politicians can not be held accountable for doing nothing:rolleyes2

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

Lee, your a class guy to give him the option of #2.:biggrin:

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You're probably right. He really gets into spewing that tripe

Unchartered territory. I like the vix for no matter what happens. The roll is not cheap though.

End of quarter rebalancing on heavy news Thursday.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/

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I can see it now, Euro homes getting robbed by the millions. First place they'll look is the mattress! I guess it's that or take your chances with the bankers taking your money, and no access to the ATM's, except every other Thursday from 9:30AM until 9:35AM, and on the last Monday of the month from 3:30PM 'til 3:32PM. Max withdrawl - 50 Euros... Comes with a 5 euro atm surcharge to boot. Sweet!

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/

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I liked this comment:

digistar
March 27, 2013 at 4:26 pm

"How thoughtful. The mattress has a labelled flap that shows robbers where the safe is!

Still, it probably still beats leaving it in the bank – if you live in a country where the professionals (the banks themselves) are likely to steal it".

Wonder if I can get in my safety deposit box once the USA goes tits up???

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

With a 1% increase in reserve requirements in 2016???? Not really, but then the politicians can not be held accountable for doing nothing:rolleyes2

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at least they are acknowledging/doing something, as oposed to what the US government did

The Nikkei 225 is up 10% in two days.

That's driving the inflationista gold bugs nuts.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

I liked this comment:

digistar
March 27, 2013 at 4:26 pm

"How thoughtful. The mattress has a labelled flap that shows robbers where the safe is!

Still, it probably still beats leaving it in the bank – if you live in a country where the professionals (the banks themselves) are likely to steal it".

Wonder if I can get in my safety deposit box once the USA goes tits up???

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Has anyone here used/tried to use bitcoins? i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it. this current chapter of the euro crisis seems to have inflated their value, might be a dumb move today to convert some cash, but the debt crisis will probably continue to ebb and flow, and i like the fact that bitcoins seem to be unable to be confiscated by governments that don't control internet traffic. as the pols and the bankers that direct the pols in euro land continue to lead their countries to economic trash heaps, bitcoins seem to have a lot of potential upside.

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Originally Posted by up an down

Has anyone here used/tried to use bitcoins? i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it. this current chapter of the euro crisis seems to have inflated their value, might be a dumb move today to convert some cash, but the debt crisis will probably continue to ebb and flow, and i like the fact that bitcoins seem to be unable to be confiscated by governments that don't control internet traffic. as the pols and the bankers that direct the pols in euro land continue to lead their countries to economic trash heaps, bitcoins seem to have a lot of potential upside.

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Jumping into the most fiat of any currency (bitcoin) from some other fiat currency seems frying pan into the fire, no?

For all the hype it's relatively low in volume (~2 million over 30 days) total existing market $1.5 billion today

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Originally Posted by up an down

i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it.

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The shoulda-woulda club is full of coulda been millionaires.

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

For all the hype it's relatively low in volume (~2 million over 30 days) total existing market $1.5 billion today

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Originally Posted by 4matic

The shoulda-woulda club is full of coulda been millionaires.

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Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line

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i overstated my hindsight frustration. i didn't dream or expect to strike it rich, but it would have been interesting to convert a few dollars to bitcoins.. if they do continue to be a mattress alternative for desperate and internet savvy euros and consolidate, then there will be plenty of opportunity in the future.

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line

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I bought a lot of Treasury bonds in February and March. :fmicon:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TLT:US

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Originally Posted by up an down

i overstated my hindsight frustration. i didn't dream or expect to strike it rich, but it would have been interesting to convert a few dollars to bitcoins.. if they do continue to be a mattress alternative for desperate and internet savvy euros and consolidate, then there will be plenty of opportunity in the future.

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It's capped at 20 million bitcoins so things should get more "interesting".

dunno, I like sports betting better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

It's capped at 20 million bitcoins so things should get more "interesting".

dunno, I like sports betting better.

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betting online?
the value of bitcoin or any additional future electronic currency will be decided by how many people are adversely affected by their government. i am cynical about the honesty/integrity and values of pols and the tycoons who influence them, so i think bitcoin has a good chance of a bright future.