2008-2009 Colorado Snowpack Observations

I'm new here. I don't really know shit about this snowpack other than what I've seen in the last year. I got here late last season, and a lot of snow was already on the ground. This year, I've been looking at it and poking around in it since the first flakes.

I just read and wanted to share Lou Dawson's opinion about and approach to this season's early snowpack.

http://www.wildsnow.com/

I can’t write enough about how impressed I am with our snowpack. November scared me, as it looked like the early season snow we slogged during our elk hunt was turning to sugar that would eventually try to support a slab — and of course fail into deadly snow slides (as is happening in Utah and Montana). We’ve still got a bit of that condition up above timberline, but much of the early sugar snow got burned off or matted down before we started our huge series of December dumps.

Now, as shown in the photo (below), in many areas we have a six to eight foot snowpack that’s nearly solid marble from the top to the ground. It’s almost surreal having a snowpack this good in Colorado. It kind of throws you off. You know you can go more places and do more things, but years of caution habits are hard to reconcile. My take: stick with the program, use the good habits, only creep up to the edge a bit closer. So that’s what we did, and it was good.
http://www.wildsnow.com/images-blog/xmas-pit.jpg

I like the advice --> stick with the program - use good habits

Yeah, Mike, we're in a pretty amazing pattern here. And while it has built a solid pack in places, lurking deep slab instabilities are creeping me out right now. I think it's still really spotty. Those who have been getting out regularly since November 1 probably have the best feel for localized areas. I haven't been in the central mountains at all, but I hear things are stable there. Front Range where I'm at it seems to really vary.

Anyway, +1 to sticking with the program (and staying warm tomorrow! Yikes!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by telemike

I'm new here. I don't really know shit about this snowpack other than what I've seen in the last year. I got here late last season, and a lot of snow was already on the ground. This year, I've been looking at it and poking around in it since the first flakes.

I just read and wanted to share Lou Dawson's opinion about and approach to this season's early snowpack.

http://www.wildsnow.com/

I can’t write enough about how impressed I am with our snowpack. November scared me, as it looked like the early season snow we slogged during our elk hunt was turning to sugar that would eventually try to support a slab — and of course fail into deadly snow slides (as is happening in Utah and Montana). We’ve still got a bit of that condition up above timberline, but much of the early sugar snow got burned off or matted down before we started our huge series of December dumps.

Now, as shown in the photo (below), in many areas we have a six to eight foot snowpack that’s nearly solid marble from the top to the ground. It’s almost surreal having a snowpack this good in Colorado. It kind of throws you off. You know you can go more places and do more things, but years of caution habits are hard to reconcile. My take: stick with the program, use the good habits, only creep up to the edge a bit closer. So that’s what we did, and it was good.

I like the advice --> stick with the program - use good habits

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I second justin's sentiment above. While I agree with "stick w/ the program, use good habits," you've gotta keep in mind that Dawson is primarily a Roaring Fork Valley guy and that weather patterns have been very different for different parts and ranges of Colorado. In my limited action touring on the Front Range this thus far this year, the situation in the Elks or even San Juans is NOT what we have going on around here. I'm certainly jealous that I don't have the opportunity to be partaking in what a much more experienced individual like Dawson thinks is an epicly stable snowpack in that part of the state, maybe that is good motivation to get my ass out there!

I third the sentiments above. If you think about it, the Ellks or West Elks (that photo easily could be from Coal Creek Basin outside of Redstone or Marble), got roughly 95% of their existing snowpack from the early december dumpage (remember some of the Aspen TRs?)

OTOH, in the front range we have a VARIABLE layer of facets and a lot more wind to add to our mixed bag snowpack. As evidence of the variability, the CAIC forecast yesterday told of 20-24 inch layer of facets on South Diamond peak near Cameron Pass. BUT if you look at the first page of the Ski Forum, WYSPLITRIDE has a TR from that same peak that looks fairly bomber.

And I bet our snowpack is different than what you're experiencing up on VP.

12-28-07 Berthoud Pass

Okay, so something of interest on my afternoon tour...

I rolled into the Berthoud Pass parking lot around 1ish, parked in the lot so that I was facing the steep east facing terrain that's right above the road. Looked up, saw a skier just lookers right of the cliffs, then saw an avalanche!

That woke me up. I saw him ski down, so everything seemed fine.

Anyway, I went poking to see why that spot had run, while everything else had been skied with no action. Since I was alone, I didn't go check out the fracture (really tempted to go back tomorrow) but standing in the debris, the FX looked about 50cm deep and 50 feet wide. What was interesting, however, was that I could see rocks and branches poking through the bed surface. Looks like it might have effectively run to the ground.

So, without any real empirical evidence, my thought is that this skier hit a steep, shallow spot. The super cold temps have put the facet factory in overdrive the past couple of days, and stressed the snowpack. I wonder if we'll see more stuff slide this weekend due to rapid faceting and more winds? I'm thinking both facets near the ground in shallow spots, and shallower slabs on top where NSF are movin' and groovin'.

Also, I dug a quick pit on the ridge above where the slide occurred. The snow was much deeper here, however I got a slightly reactive NSF layer about 25cm down. The temperature gradient was almost 3 degrees C/10cm in the top 25cm layer around 2PM. So keep in mind, things are going to be changing, and fast.

I should also mention this slide = terrain trap. Went over a cliff and into trees. Be safe this weekend!

Justin,

The CAIC report did indicate that it ran to the ground. These cold temps are making riding conditions difficult and like you said, putting the facet factory on full bore.

I am actually looking forward to some warm temps and high pressure for a good chunk of next week before the next storm cycle (starting next weekend)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rontele

Justin,

The CAIC report did indicate that it ran to the ground.

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That was my report, actually... Maybe the skier who triggered it also reported? Dunno...

Good to see someone from the CAIC is checking in here. Because I didn't send them that report.

errr... I meant I'm the one who emailed the CAIC about the slide.

Anyway, Hacksaw, do you have a sense for how many non-observer reports the CAIC receives? Just curious how well the general public does with emailing in info and obs.

Justin

Butler Gulch 12-29-07

Now, for something completely different from yesterday. In line with the CAIC's observer a day or two ago, I saw bottomless facets down in the trees and near the parking lot.

We toured up and skied the NNW facing shots below that big saddle. Lots of blowing snow and wind. Conditions were REALLY variable. It was quite soft, and actually great skiing. We were really careful with terrain selection, however. I stomped on a mini slope at about 11,800 and got a 20 foot wide fracture, and the slab ran about 5 feet with me on top. :D

Anyway, two distinct slabs actually broke. The top slab was 10cm of recent wind deposit. Below that was a harder slab, about 10-15cm deep. Bed surface was a thin layer of NSF (recent cold temps!). Compression test yielded a CT 1 Q1. :eek:

The moral of the story was that we skied windward sides of the gullies. Here there was no recent loading, no cracking or movement, and much more stable snow. Soft slabs on top of facets, basically. Down in the trees it was knee deep and lovely. Front range definitely a mixed bag.

J

Quote:

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Originally Posted by freejustin

Anyway, Hacksaw, do you have a sense for how many non-observer reports the CAIC receives? Just curious how well the general public does with emailing in info and obs.

Justin

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Justin,
Since I'm no longer with the CAIC I don't hear much about what gets called/faxed or emailed into them.

When I was with the CAIC I think that there where more and more "unoffical" observer reports emailed in from folks each winter. So, its slowly growing.

I know that I have called and faxed in some reports that they have used a couple of things from this winter. It all depends upon what time of day you report in. But, what really helps the forecaster is to hear from the field that their forecast has been confirmed :D or was way off the mark. :eek:

Halsted

The bottom layer was quite faceted but mostly soft snow on top.

Did a tour up to Shrine today. Didn't get any skiing in, conditions were...ummmmm....WINDY. Holy Shit was it blowing up there. I would say 30mph sustained and gusts to 60. Wind slabs are gonna be a bitch with all this wind. Be careful.

You didn't ski? Dood - you can easily find safe turns up there. You and I need to sit down over a beer and a map.

Winds were indeed smoking. Easily gusts to 60. Zero visibility over Ptamigan Pass. Got a bit dodgy riding the sled at times. I'll be surprised if we don't start seeing something happen soon. With facets on the ground, faceting in the mid-pack, and tons of new snow load, we've got a lot going on.

i met up with a mag from Boulder. It was my first time up there, i should have crossed the road and headed up Uneva, oh well. Beer and map...mmmmmm.

Berthoud Pass - Current Creek 12-30-07

Harsh winds above treeline. Slabs were building rapidly. Cracking was not propagating very far on 28 deg slope, however it just needs a little more time to increase stress and gain energy. Basically 10cm wind slab on top of facets.

Below treeline, however, the lower angled terrain in the trees was deep and fresh. This was all before noon. It's probably quite different now.

The new snow falling/blowing was very light density. Since this is a warm front, I wonder if temps will rise and we'll get a density change towards warmer/denser snow?

I have heard from a pretty reliable source that there was an incident in the sidecountry at Vail in the East Vail Chutes area. It was supposed to have occured aproximately 10 days ago. A 600ft run. Does anyone know anything about this. No report on CAIC.

Toured around Vail Pass down to red cliff. There was obviously tremendous blowing and loading of lee slopes. The snow was very dense and thick, making turning a chore. We stuck to the lowest angles as many of the rollovers on the slopes we intended to ski were sketching us out.

There is now a thick and robust windslab on all lee slopes. It wasn't going anywhere, but the undersuface depth hoar is still present and could eventually, with enough pressure release real HUDGE.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MiCol

I have heard from a pretty reliable source that there was an incident in the sidecountry at Vail in the East Vail Chutes area. It was supposed to have occured aproximately 10 days ago. A 600ft run. Does anyone know anything about this. No report on CAIC.

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they've been mentioning it in the forecasts - last reported human-triggered avalanche in the Vail/Summit zone

Quote:

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Originally Posted by telemike

they've been mentioning it in the forecasts - last reported human-triggered avalanche in the Vail/Summit zone

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Found that one in the Forecast section on or about Dec12-14. Shouldnt that report be in "Accidents" because the first early season Nov report didnt have burials either and it is in "Accidents".

I guess the reason I am mentioning this is that it is not something that a vail resort visitor is going to ever find. From what i understand from a reputable source is that this was a offf duty ski patroler from another resort and four or five other very experienced bc skiers and they were in the Vail East Chutes.

Now if I am not mistaken when I worked vail lifts, this area is accessed through Vail terrain. Much like that situation back in 2005 at Ten Mile where the three guys (one of which is on this board) triggered two slides accessing the terrain from Breck. That situation appeared in Accident column even though they never rode in the slide.

Why is this recent Vail accident not in accidents column where it really ought to be IMO. After that inbound Canyons incident, people who ski resorts have a right to know so maybe they can decide whether they want to ski in such conditions or choose less dangerous terrain.

Well, why don't you email the CAIC with you opions....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rontele

Toured around Vail Pass down to red cliff. There was obviously tremendous blowing and loading of lee slopes. The snow was very dense and thick, making turning a chore. We stuck to the lowest angles as many of the rollovers on the slopes we intended to ski were sketching us out.

There is now a thick and robust windslab on all lee slopes. It wasn't going anywhere, but the undersuface depth hoar is still present and could eventually, with enough pressure release real HUDGE.

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caic has switched everything in area from considerable to high. makes me very nervous.

The wind coming home last night from silverthorne to leadvegas was gusting super hard. i can imagine how loaded it must be out there.

im staying out of bc for a little while for sure, unless its pure tour and low incline terrain

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hacksaw

Well, why don't you email the CAIC with you opions....

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I sent them one this morning before I found the report in forecasts. It was simply inquiring if what I heard had been reported or not.

I've read you used to work for caic, what are your thoughts on situations like this. obviously, similar situations and some not even as serious as this one have found there way into the accident catagory.

i reviewed my follow up email to caic after finding the report in forecasts and i did ask if it should be in accidents. no reply as of yet

Well, if it was only a human triggered avalanche with no one caught and buried (fully or partly) then it is just a "closecall."

An "accident," is where someone is actually caught and/or buried. Hopefuly, it is not a fatal accident.

Sure, I think "closecalls," should posted on the CAIC accident webpage in more detail. But, you have to remember that a lot of times closecall information only comes to the CAIC second hand, or on a short fast phone message/email that lacks a lot of details. The solo Boulder CAIC forecaster doesn't have the time to callback/email in a lot of cases, to request more and more details; while having to get out 13 zones of forecasts in a timely manner.

And with the current weather poop hitting the fan, I'm sure that a closecall from 5+ days ago was way down the list of "things to worry about." The scary thing is that we (when I was with the CAIC) always figured for every reported closecall, there where a couple more unreported out there....

Cheers,
Halsted

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hacksaw

Well, if it was only a human triggered avalanche with no one caught and buried (fully or partly) then it is just a "closecall."

An "accident," is where someone is actually caught and/or buried. Hopefuly, it is not a fatal accident.

Sure, I think "closecalls," should posted on the CAIC accident webpage in more detail. But, you have to remember that a lot of times closecall information only comes to the CAIC second hand, or on a short fast phone message/email that lacks a lot of details. The solo Boulder CAIC forecaster doesn't have the time to callback/email in a lot of cases, to request more and more details; while having to get out 13 zones of forecasts in a timely manner. "


Cheers,
Halsted

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Damn, didnt know just one forecaster covering the whole region. That place needs some unpaid interns to be helping them out!


"And with the current weather poop hitting the fan, I'm sure that a closecall from 5+ days ago was way down the list of "things to worry about." The scary thing is that we (when I was with the CAIC) always figured for every reported closecall, there where a couple more unreported out there...."


I believe it, gotta be several out there nonreported for every one that makes it to print.

The man was identified as Jesse Brigham, a Vail Resorts employee who was originally from Boston.

Brigham was skiing with two other skiers in the East Vail Chutes shortly before noon when the avalanche slid.

All three skiers were wearing avalanche beacons, the Sheriff’s Office said, and Brigham’s two skiing companions were able to find him and begin CPR. Vail Ski Patrol also responded.

Brigham was buried for about 10 to 20 minutes, said Shannon Cordingly of the Sheriff’s Office. The man was pronounced dead shortly thereafter, the Sheriff’s Office said.

The cause of death was asphyxiation, said County Coroner Kara Bettis.

The East Vail Chutes are a popular backcountry skiing area that is outside the boundaries of Vail Mountain but is accessed through the ski area.

About 300 people per day ski the chutes, according to estimates from the Forest Service. Skiers get to the chutes by hiking to a backcountry gate above the top of Chair 22, the surface lift above Mongolia Bowl in Vail’s Back Bowls.

The avalanche danger in the Vail-Summit area Friday was moderate above treeline, with pockets of considerable danger, according to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.

Experts said they weren’t surprised to see that area slide Friday.

“At times (East Vail) can have some of the best powder skiing you can have in your life,” said Scott Toepher of the avalanche center. “There are times when it would be the worst day of your life. It’s steep, and it’s avalanche prone.”

The last fatality in the East Vail backcountry was in January, 2001, when Joseph Chonko fell while snowboarding home from work and got caught in a terrain trap in the Water Tank Chute. The last death to involve an avalanche was in March 1996, when Vail resident Kevin Burke was buried in a 1,500-foot slide.

Mike Duffy, a longtime local skier who teaches avalanche classes at Colorado Mountain College, said the snowpack appears to be unstable this season across Colorado and the West.

“Everything’s pretty ripe,” he said.

A lot of people have a false sense of security about the avalanche danger in East Vail Chutes because it’s so close to the ski area, so many people ski it and there hasn’t been a fatality there in several years, Duffy said.

“A lot of people think of it as an extention of the mountain,” he said. “But it’s a whole different world. ... (The death) is kind of a wakeup call for people.”

Avalanche danger has been lessening over the last few days after a windy snowstorm hit the area over the weekend, Toepher said. But a weak, underlying layer in the snowpack is making for close calls with avalanches across the state, he said.

A snowboarder was caught in an avalanche near Cameron Pass Dec. 2. He was rescued, but later died of his injuries.

Friday’s Vail fatality was the nation’s 14th avalanche death this season. Eight have been in Washington state.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hacksaw

Well, if it was only a human triggered avalanche with no one caught and buried (fully or partly) then it is just a "closecall."

An "accident," is where someone is actually caught and/or buried. Hopefuly, it is not a fatal accident.

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I think the proper terms are accident and incident. Accident= someone needing some type of help from another trained persons, and incident being the "close call" = not, needing help from other people from outside the party.

http://www.avalanche.ca/default.aspx...58,3,Documents
A link, to a form used in Canada to help with Avy incidents reports.

was at the resort today, and found that for the most part, all the new snow bonded pretty well to the old, with one exception;

Copper Mountain
Union Meadows Area
Not sure the proper name of it, but I just call it the headwall.
NW facing aspect riddled with rocks, no trees on this face but surrounded by them everywhere else, right at a roll over, right around 11500 ft, id guess ~32-35*

Dropped in from the top of this area and on my first turn a small slab released.
Roughly 4-6" crown (the new snow) which ran about ~30-40ft (was about 15-20ft wide)
Threw in a quick ski cut after that happened and nothing else even hinted of moving.
Bed surface appeared to be hard windslab.
I didnt stick around for more than 20s before making my way down, so this is why its a brief, not very in depth report
hesitated to even post it, but figured what the hey

It wasnt very big, but it definitely could have knocked someone down.
reported it to patrol within 1min of it happening because i happend to run into them on my way out.

you talking about the area that you traverse up to from the top of Sierra lift? the Union Peaks bowl? f

funny, i asked a patroller up at the top of union peak if it slid and he said,"why?" and I said because I like to keep up with it thats why, did you bomb this? he said, yeah there's been lots of slides around here, especially back in Spaulding.

dont know why he seemed so guarded or secretive about it? shit I just wanna know if the shit is stable or not, im not going to start carrying around a shovel , stopping in the middle of runs diggin pits

thats what they are there for, avi control, inbounds

I was out and about all over the place at Vail Pass today.

Was stopped for CDOT avalanche control at 0700 at MM184 for about 1/2 hour. Didn't look like they got big results, although I heard they buried 4 lanes of I-70 further east near the tunnel.

Went to Wearyman Creek Trail to see where a couple sleds had been hit and partially buried yesterday in a couple of small slides from above the trail. One of the dirtiest crown's I've ever seen. No continuity to it at all - up and down all along the slope. Slides could have knocked snowmobiles and riders into the creek if they'd been bigger.

Was unable to acces North Ptarmigan to see the reported slide there. Skiers reported that it had gone big all the way down to the trees at the bottom of the slope.

Stomped and poked around on all sorts of slopes on all aspects today. Some easy shear and compression tests in the new snow. Still rotten snow at the ground. Warmer temps may slow faceting down, but what about the added weight? Still managing to drop through to the ground on skis, so I think there is potential for things to step down deep.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MiCol

you talking about the area that you traverse up to from the top of Sierra lift? the Union Peaks bowl? f

funny, i asked a patroller up at the top of union peak if it slid and he said,"why?" and I said because I like to keep up with it thats why, did you bomb this? he said, yeah there's been lots of slides around here, especially back in Spaulding.

dont know why he seemed so guarded or secretive about it?

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yea its a 2 min traverse if you keep your speed and know where youre going from the top of Sierra. Its not the bowl but below treeline by 200 or so ft.
If you take any of the "runs" in the meadows, they will pretty much all lead you to a smallish meadow with a 500 section of vert that i suppose could be called a bowl, but that I just call a headwall. Its literally almost right before you hit the traverse out of the meadows before you get to whatever flat green takes you back to Timberline.


my guess is he was acting weird because he was wondering if you had any info.

did they ever open up spaulding sunday?
it didnt look too promising when i left at 230


edit:
heres where on their map
their map shows the boundary in the wrong place or that clearing in the wrong space, but either way, its where it happened. My route mspainted in a thin black and the avy where the black square is.
yea.
i know.
its a killer graphic

dbl post

damn wireless connection

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pechelman

yea its a 2 min traverse if you keep your speed and know where youre going from the top of Sierra. Its not the bowl but below treeline by 200 or so ft.
If you take any of the "runs" in the meadows, they will pretty much all lead you to a smallish meadow with a 500 section of vert that i suppose could be called a bowl, but that I just call a headwall. Its literally almost right before you hit the traverse out of the meadows before you get to whatever flat green takes you back to Timberline.


my guess is he was acting weird because he was wondering if you had any info.

did they ever open up spaulding sunday?
it didnt look too promising when i left at 230


edit:
heres where on their map
their map shows the boundary in the wrong place or that clearing in the wrong space, but either way, its where it happened. My route mspainted in a thin black and the avy where the black square is.
yea.
i know.
its a killer graphic

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I was in the wrong place, I am going to go take a look tomorrow. I bet they shot it already and its gone. but between what telemike up there above has spotted and posted and the caic reports its looking pretty sketchy all about.
I dont think so on spaulding.

once again i find that caic lists an acciedent in the forecast section with a snomobiler buried with one hand out of snow rescued by others and results in broken bones. now is that a frikken accident or not. it ought to be in the accident section. (Gunnison forecast)

i guess that maybe someone is too worried about running off all the out of town visitors or something? i mean the bigger media (denver, national) never seems to find all those avi runs and accidents buried in the forecasts (no pun intended). but if you are aware they are happening it definately looks like a pattern of weak sno pack throughout summit, pitkin, lake, summit, etc. prime resort territory and or bc territory.

doesnt seem right, but hey im just j q pubic, what do i know

id be pretty certain its tracked out by now
if not by the patrol guy I told then some other skier that knows the area and how to get to where I was...not that its a secret or anything, but it does take a few trips back there to understand the terrain. its a little confusing.

with regard to the caic
all I can say is that they have limited resources
this is a very busy time as you can imagine and id like to think theyre doing the best that they can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pechelman

yea.
i know.
its a killer graphic

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Dig those turns before you set off the avi.

MiCol:

I too was surprised the snowmachine burial didn't get more attention, as it was way more than a close call and could have served as a good media heads up for that community, but I also know of plenty of other slides that don't get reported. You can't rely only on CAIC for your safety assessment. They are, to me, just the start of my analysis, and actually, I use them more for news and weather than anything else. You are a Friend of the CAIC, aren't you?

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Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark

Dig those turns before you set off the avi.

MiCol:

I too was surprised the snowmachine burial didn't get more attention, as it was way more than a close call and could have served as a good media heads up for that community, but I also know of plenty of other slides that don't get reported. You can't rely only on CAIC for your safety assessment. They are, to me, just the start of my analysis, and actually, I use them more for news and weather than anything else. You are a Friend of the CAIC, aren't you?

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agreed

i believe they provide a valuable service

hey y'all - listen up

I just wanted to give you a head's up about what my boys saw at Vail Pass today - I was off, and at the doc with a sick kid, but I got a call late in the day...

yesterday I was out at with some folks from DOW who were listening and looking for kitties

At Ptarmigan Pass visibility was very shitty - very few folks out sledding and skiing. I got a report that there was a slide into the creek on the Queen Bee/BBQ hybrid route at the very bottom that could've hung someone up in the terrain trap, but it seems to have just filled in the creek nicely for us.

I was also out Lime Creek Road beyond Bowman's Cutoff. There were several natural slides that had buried the road in the first steep bit beyond Bowman's, so my group turned around Several old ski, snowboard and snowmobile tracks in the area. Many more paths beyond where we turned around on Lime Creek Road.

Got a third-hand report today of a snowboarder triggered slide on North Ptarmigan. Anyone want to fess up? Sounds like it went big - top to bottom. No burials or injuries reported. Shrine Bowl slid as well - likely natural.

Of note are some slides that buried the Turkey Creek Road below Shrine Pass on the way to Red Cliff (in the area of the old log cabin). Nobody I have talked to has ever seen slides in this area.

I am one who will always adamantly say that there are always safe places to play in the snow, even during times of HIGH avalanche danger. Well, we "only" have CONSIDERABLE danger right now, and the snowpack is as funky, complicated and scary as I have ever experienced. I am going to be very selective and very careful about where I ski and snowmobilewhile the current conditions are present.

If you haven't lately, take a look at the CAIC forecast.

CAIC has raised the forecast from CONSIDERABLE to HIGH in the last couple of hours.