Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

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Originally Posted by old goat

A question for Mitch McConnell--why is it OK to bail out big corporations that risk failing because of enormous debt incurred to acquire competitors and buy back stock, but not ok to bail out governments that have big pension obligations? I'm sure Mitch is counting on his pension; why should he be allowed to stiff a sanitation worker? I'd also point out that those mergers and acquisitions and buybacks do nothing to drive the economy but are purely financial manipulation while the vast majority of pension dollars are spent immediately on goods and services. I wish I believed in god, because I could rest easy knowing the man will be going to hell.

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Mitch knows what he's doing

The more I learn about Mitch, the more I want to inject him with 12.5% bleach.

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Originally Posted by LegoSkier

I feel it’s a good time for a discussion of ways to detect pathogens and our body’s response to them.

There are two basic ways to detect stuff floating around in your body.

1. Look for amino acids and their polymers. That means detecting proteins.
2. Look for nucleic acids and their polymers. That means detecting DNA or RNA.

Each of those has its advantages and disadvantages. For DNA/RNA the main advantage is that we have this technique of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) which effectively can take one single strand of DNA/RNA and quickly make millions of exact copies of that strand. That way it is able to create a very powerful amplifier of that DNA/RNA “signal” that you can then detect much easier.

For Proteins, we have no equivalent way to amplify the signal. The best we can do is attach things to the protein molecules that make them easier to see like dyes or phosphorescent molecules that light up. But still there is only a one-to-one ratio of proteins to detect in the original sample to lighted things to detect in the test, whereas with PCR DNA/RNA test, there is a one-to-millions ratio.
Next, comes where we get the “sample” from. The thing we are trying to detect can either be from:

A. The pathogen itself.
B. Our body’s response to the pathogen (our immune response).

So far with COVID we have the following:

- The RT-PCR test which is a DNA/RNA test detecting the pathogen itself. Combining the two lists above that is option 2A.
- Antibody tests which detect protein antibodies produced by our immune system in response to the virus. That is option 1B.

Now the PCR test is great in that it is super sensitive at detecting the presence of RNA from the viral genome. Sometimes perhaps too sensitive in that it can detect RNA that is not at all from a “viable” virus. i.e. it is just detecting the desiccated remains of a virus that was once there but cannot actually infect you anymore. In addition to being very sensitive, they also tend to be very specific in that cross contamination and the reasons for it are very well understood and managed through proper primer design. The downside to this is of course it is only directly looking for the pathogen so it only tells you “you are actively infected and shedding the virus”. It tells you noting about how your body is responding to the virus or if you already had it.

The antibody test is the opposite of that. It is detecting that your body has seen this virus and has started to respond to it. These protein-based tests are easy to create, easy to manufacture at a large scale, can be very cheap, and can even be packaged to be administered at home (pregnancy test). The main problems with them are that if you have the virus but your immune system hasn’t started to respond yet, it won’t tell you that. It also is of course a protein test so there is no magic way to amplify the signal like DNA/RNA has with PCR, so they are less sensitive. They also tend to be less specific in that it is easier for other similar antibodies to cross-react or interfere with the results. Finally, with them being cheaper, easier to make, and available outside of controlled lab environments, the prevalence of user error is much higher than with PCR based tests.

So the whole thing is definitely a balancing act. Which one to use changes by what question you are are asking. Option 2A? 1B? Both? Then add in time, environment, and a whole host of other factors. It is all about gathering the proper information to give you the best available data to make the decisions you need to make.

You will also notice that 2A and 1B aren’t the only options from the list above. You could also have option 1A, where you are detecting proteins present in the pathogen. Or you could have option 2B, where you are detecting the DNA of our body’s immune response, effectively looking at a genetic picture of how our body is responding to the virus during the course of the disease.

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1B

Good write up. Made me dust off some college brain cells.
But yeah. PCR can amplify all kinds of shit.
Give me antibodies or give me death
#patrickhenry

Attachment 326426

Do you think strippers are on unemployment or they took out a small business loan?

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Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate

Mitch knows what he's doing

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David Frum. The great Iraq War cheerleader. He used the same know it all logic to defend one of our greatest international blunders.

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Originally Posted by simple

Do you think strippers are on unemployment or they took out a small business loan?

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Well I mean a bunch of men are getting “stimulus” checks so there will probably be some trickle down.

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Originally Posted by Rideski

Well I mean a bunch of men are getting “stimulus” checks so there will probably be some trickle down.

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You forgot to put “trickle down” in quotes

What dooya have to looze?

https://wapo.st/3cPW4vJ

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

David Frum. The great Iraq War cheerleader. He used the same know it all logic to defend one of our greatest international blunders.

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I just found it amazing that a dyed-in-the-wool Republican and former Dubya speechwriter would write something so strongly implicating McConnell. Sure, he hates Drumpf, but if he's going after Mitch, that's next level.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

What dooya have to looze?

https://wapo.st/3cPW4vJ

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Thx for not posting a naked link. Hugs.

Yes Orange Cheeto is off the res.

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Originally Posted by rideit

Can any of you sciency types review this antibody test option we have here, and describe whether it is complete bullshit, or useful?

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Whether or not such a test is useful depends on its ability to detect neutralizing antibodies (ABs) against the virus. In the course of an immune challenge, a butt-load of ABs are generated via the adaptive response, but only a fraction are capable of inactivating the virus and preventing it from getting down and boogying all over your ass. As I see it, a minimally useful test ought to detect ABs raised against the spike protein and especially the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-19.

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Originally Posted by old goat

The govt should be reimbursing companies and hospitals for the research they do and controlling the patents, licensing them to anyone for a nominal fee.

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The United States government actually does have so called "March In Rights" to inventions / discoveries developed under Federal funding should a particular invention be deemed essential to the nation. It's somewhere in CFR 37 Article somethingoranother.

Covid toe

Yes. It’s the latest craze.

Microthrombosis
Blue toes.
Weird AF

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

David Frum. The great Iraq War cheerleader. He used the same know it all logic to defend one of our greatest international blunders.

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Blind squirrel.

thought this was wild given how many have died in the usa from the bat virus, "Death rates in the United States have been going down, not up"

https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rat...g-down-not-up/

Week of the year- Number of Deaths 2019 -Number of Deaths 2020
10 58,490 54,157
11 57,872 52,198
12 57,087 51,602
13 56,672 52,285
14 56,595 49,292
15 55,477 47,574

gotta be "fake news" but its supposedly from the CDC.

cant figure it out.

you figure with the bat virus and normal health issues, it would be up big. sure, they count some cancers as bat virus because they tested positive. my wild ass guess is there's lots of cacner and heart disease patients being strung along rather than be aggressively treated as they do not have the staff and time with the rat virus patients. if not then a whole lotta of bat virus deaths were cancer and heart disease deaths that got tagged as bat virus.

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

thought this was wild given how many have died in the usa from the bat virus, "Death rates in the United States have been going down, not up"

https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rat...g-down-not-up/

Week of the year- Number of Deaths 2019 -Number of Deaths 2020
10 58,490 54,157
11 57,872 52,198
12 57,087 51,602
13 56,672 52,285
14 56,595 49,292
15 55,477 47,574

gotta be "fake news" but its supposedly from the CDC.

cant figure it out.

you figure with the bat virus and normal health issues, it would be up big. sure, they count some cancers as bat virus because they tested positive. my wild ass guess is there's lots of cacner and heart disease patients being strung along rather than be aggressively treated as they do not have the staff and time with the rat virus patients. if not then a whole lotta of bat virus deaths were cancer and heart disease deaths that got tagged as bat virus.

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Less people running wild doing stupid shit maybe.

Forward thinking on Twitter:

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Nobody is talking about what may happen to the power grid if June 2020 turns out to be like June 2019, which NOAA says was the hottest June in the 140-year record. Millions will be in their homes with AC blasting. Will cities be looking at rolling brown-outs or blackouts?

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

thought this was wild given how many have died in the usa from the bat virus, "Death rates in the United States have been going down, not up"

https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rat...g-down-not-up/

Week of the year- Number of Deaths 2019 -Number of Deaths 2020
10 58,490 54,157
11 57,872 52,198
12 57,087 51,602
13 56,672 52,285
14 56,595 49,292
15 55,477 47,574

gotta be "fake news" but its supposedly from the CDC.

cant figure it out.

you figure with the bat virus and normal health issues, it would be up big. sure, they count some cancers as bat virus because they tested positive. my wild ass guess is there's lots of cacner and heart disease patients being strung along rather than be aggressively treated as they do not have the staff and time with the rat virus patients. if not then a whole lotta of bat virus deaths were cancer and heart disease deaths that got tagged as bat virus.

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Also you gotta figure there's less drunk rednecks driving around and killing themselves crashing into shit, plus most of them won't shoot people who live in the same shack, so the hillbilly survival rate is increasing sharply with the lockdowns.

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Originally Posted by SkiBall

Less people running wild doing stupid shit maybe.

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don't know about that, I drive to work daily still at the potential for traffic fatalities seems more as people seem to drive more nuts now

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

thought this was wild given how many have died in the usa from the bat virus, "Death rates in the United States have been going down, not up"

https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rat...g-down-not-up/

Week of the year- Number of Deaths 2019 -Number of Deaths 2020
10 58,490 54,157
11 57,872 52,198
12 57,087 51,602
13 56,672 52,285
14 56,595 49,292
15 55,477 47,574

gotta be "fake news" but its supposedly from the CDC.

cant figure it out.

you figure with the bat virus and normal health issues, it would be up big. sure, they count some cancers as bat virus because they tested positive. my wild ass guess is there's lots of cacner and heart disease patients being strung along rather than be aggressively treated as they do not have the staff and time with the rat virus patients. if not then a whole lotta of bat virus deaths were cancer and heart disease deaths that got tagged as bat virus.

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Once you get the death camps going for brown people SkiCougar I'm sure you'll remedy that situation.

But why stop there? I'm sure you have other ideas

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Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate

Mitch knows what he's doing

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Here's someone who thinks he doesn't https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/o...sultPosition=4

Important points about CDC reported death stats:

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The user’s claim that the death count in the U.S. is “way down” during the COVID-19 pandemic misses key context. As noted by the CDC on its “Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)” page ( here ), provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received” and “are delayed and may differ from other published sources.” Under Table 1, of which an older version appears in the Facebook post, it says: “NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.” It then says: “Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.”

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https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN21Y2IV

https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

thought this was wild given how many have died in the usa from the bat virus, "Death rates in the United States have been going down, not up"

https://www.iceagenow.info/death-rat...g-down-not-up/

Week of the year- Number of Deaths 2019 -Number of Deaths 2020
10 58,490 54,157
11 57,872 52,198
12 57,087 51,602
13 56,672 52,285
14 56,595 49,292
15 55,477 47,574

gotta be "fake news" but its supposedly from the CDC.

cant figure it out.

you figure with the bat virus and normal health issues, it would be up big. sure, they count some cancers as bat virus because they tested positive. my wild ass guess is there's lots of cacner and heart disease patients being strung along rather than be aggressively treated as they do not have the staff and time with the rat virus patients. if not then a whole lotta of bat virus deaths were cancer and heart disease deaths that got tagged as bat virus.

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Per AD's link there's lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed so 2020 data is probably incomplete.

On top of that, your source doesn't provide a source but the table stops at week 15 (April 6-12) even though the story was posted on the 24th. We are currently in week 17 so it looks like he cut off week 16 (April 13-19).

Exponential growth has always been one of the biggest concerns. Can't say for sure without a source, but by excluding week 16 he can cherry pick data (iceagenow looks like a typical data manipulating conspiracy mongering site) that excludes a weeks worth of COVID-19 growth while still capturing the calm before the storm when, among other things, flu rates dropped precipitously compared with previous years due to all the extra precautions people are taking.

This is what the growth curve looks like when you include week 16 (and what will happen again if we let our guard down after growth rates plateau):

Attachment 326442

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Originally Posted by Svengali

Forward thinking on Twitter:

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Yeah, but millions won't be in large office buildings or malls or other commercial spaces.